What could Sydney's outbreak mean for Christmas?



And getting that network of people that you might have spread it too but the key here in cluster epidemiology is to find out where you've been over the last three four five days in other words tracing you back in time to find where you might have caught that originally not just whether you've spread it where you've called it originally and then during contact tracing that goes back for five days to see if you can find out truly came from given that sewage was negative just before i think on the tenth of december which is what the chief health officer said yesterday. Then it's likely this is a new infection. And if you were betting you'd have to say this is an overseas leak. This is somehow from hotair quarantine or overseas aircrews. Aircrews there'd been flying overseas and the probab- anecdotally. There are a lot of qantas flight. Crews who live on the beaches. It's a nice place to live when you've got lots of days off is anecdotal. I don't know how true it is. But you know when you bump into people who people who work in qantas. They often leave on the beaches on the northern suburbs of sydney. So this is likely to be a problem. That's coming from overseas. And that's what the genomics will help to find out but it does mean regardless that oversees aircrews are going to have to be quarantined. Even if it's just they go into a sterile bubble for the twenty four hours to turn around and then we can go back but they don't leave where they are it's properly policed and of course the people who are driving them are well protected. So there's lots of public health messaging about. And if you here you need to isolate and get a negative test. And all those sorts of things and in some of those instances people are asked to isolate until they get negative result. In other instances people asked to isolate for fourteen days even if they get a negative result. They still have to oscillate for fourteen days and john's asking why. Why if i'm dying to be at risk and i test negative. Why do i still have to isolate for two weeks. It depends on the likelihood that you've been in a place where you've caught the virus so far example. The school changed by the time people here. This corona cast but when we're recording. This western australia has insist is insisting that people come arriving from new south wales when they arrive in westminster the isolate themselves. They get a test and until that test is negative. They can't leave. That's a risk equation. Which is that. It's highly unlikely really at the moment. The anybody arriving in western australia had is carrying the virus. Who actually really unlucky that that's happened. The reason that you stay in quarantine for fourteen days will be that if you are likely to have been in such contacts with somebody who was infected that you're likely to be infected. There's a high risk of it and the possibility is that there's a false negative tests in other words you test negative but you're really positive and as we've said before on corner cash probably go to have go back a few months now. I in a in a programming. But if you look back in in our podcast you'll find the was one podcast. We talked to at false negatives and they can be really high they can be as high as eighty percents near the beginning of the infection and probably never drop down before below about twenty percent and that's roundabout day five to eight and then they're false negatives go up so you could actually spend your whole time in quarantine be positive but the tests come back negative. And that's why it's a risk play that they don't want to take the chance that you are false negative on the test and you really got the virus whereas after fourteen days the likelihood that your infectious is extremely low so if you live in that area in one of those areas you've been to one of those venues look at the public health information is and if you need to get tested get tested and those rules are there for raisin and just to remind everybody listening to krona cast. Whether it's you anywhere in australia we've got a lot of overseas corona casters if any symptoms at all get tested and includes fatigue. It includes cough includes a runny nose. It includes anything feeling crap and get tested. I know some of you who listen jobs overseas in places unfortunately where. It's not that easy to get tested but in australia. It is get tested. Don't sit on this. This is a reminder. This virus can pop anywhere. That's right and that's just about all we've got time for on karenna cost today but before we go. Thank you so much to everyone who took the time to write us a lovely night about upcoming three week break. A reminder that i lost for the year is going to be on christmas eve the twenty fourth of december. But we're coming back on the eighteenth of january and if anything big happens in those three weeks we'll come back sooner on operative we'll be okay by the twenty four th of december in new south wales and that's christmas. We have than we might be predicting. Now we'll see on monday.

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