The Skeptics Guide #803 - Nov 28 2020


You know people are acting like it's were at the other side of this but we're actually at the worst point of it right now and and we don't even know if this is going to be the worst wave we're going to get. It's the worst so far and the worst happening when everybody is so fatigued by this and the holidays are hitting however you know two weeks ago. Pfizer announced their vaccine one week ago. Madonna announced their vaccine. This week we have astrazeneca and oxford university announcing their vaccine so we have a third and as many weeks. So this is not an mr rene vaccine like the other two. This is a weakened virus. What they did is they took in a adenovirus regular cold virus. They modified it in two ways one way so that it expresses the spike proteins of the of the sars cov two and that's the provoke immune reaction against the covid virus and they also made it so it can't replicate which weakened we can't get sick from it but it is it actual virus not a killed virus to weaken virus. The data is again the same thing face retrial preliminary data but it looks good so they're reporting seventy percent efficacy for the whole trial right which is not as good as the ninety five percent of but still decent though right still deal season just not as good but they said however we got our efficacy up to ninety percent so we have to dig in a little bit. I mean yeah they did. A small percentage change. Yeah with the most of the people who got the vaccine got full two full doses to the other two. It's two vaccines all three vaccines required to doses. But they did a small subgroup where they did a half dose for the first treatment followed by a full does for the second and that group got ninety percent efficacy interested the two full doses got sixty two percent efficacy the average out the numbers to seventy percent overall. But you know. I gotta be honest with you. I just don't find that compelling. I think that's probably just a quirk of the data. And it's probably not gonna hold up but i could be wrong but now it's more of a hypothesis and conclusion right. They wanted to look at the doses to see if they could see a dose effect. But it's kinda going the wrong way like you would expect the full dose who'd have more of effect than the half does but they said maybe there's a sweet spot in terms of the immune system can be that way to react to a sweet spot but that's what the phase three trial is really supposed to be about right like the sounds like it's ready. Well the thing is at the very least. It's going to have that sixty to seventy percent efficacy. And that's enough and the so now what they're going to do is expand the the low dose arm to see if that if that ninety percent efficacy holds up for some weird reason and if it does then that will be the dough. Says they'll give and maybe they'll be able to claim ninety percent efficacy. So that's still an unknown. I would say at this point because it was just sort of a surprise finding a smaller subgroup and not the full trial so we'll have to get the big advantage though steve. I'm not forgetting. I'm getting there so this vaccine could be stored at refrigerator temperatures for six months. So you don't have as it so this will be very easy to distribute easier than the other two against other. Yeah just refrigerator for six months. So that's you know anyone in their office can keep it keep. It is that. Because it's not an i think so the different kinds of axiom and yo- thing is they also are projecting. They'll be able to crank out three billion doses by the end of twenty twenty one. Oh my god vaccinated half the planet wonderful beverage two doses per person so it's one point five billion saying you combine that with the six hundred million for visor five hundred from madonna. We're getting there. That's getting like half the planet between those three vaccines by the end of twenty twenty one and of course china has vaccine russia. Has their vaccines will be coming out. We'll get the world vaccinated by the end of twenty twenty one at the very least we'll have enough doses to theoretically backstage world probably by the end of two thousand. Twenty one however compliance. There's an issue of vaccine refusal so there was a recent survey where they asked adults fifty eight years old. If the covid nineteen vaccine was available now and it was free. Would you definitely take it somewhat likely to take it somewhat. Unlikely taken very unlikely. Or you don't know. Only fifty eight percent of people said they were either very or somewhat likely to take it and thirty nine percent said they were and twenty eight percent said they were either somewhat are very unlikely to take it. Fourteen said they hope they. I hope they also asked why they felt that way. Because i think that's important you'd have to because we need to crush certain misconceptions out there about this. I definitely was more hesitancy among women than men. More hesitancy among minorities than among whites to that question. Though evan about half of the people surveyed also said that they'd like to wait until other people get it. I write safety. Was that in america or is it sorry it was just an america that makes brand new vaccine at. This process created a vaccine fashion than ever before. And sure i i would. I wouldn't mind waiting to see if people turn into. I mean i think beyond that really. it's that ultimately. It was politicized. And i think that stuck in a lot of people's minds was this done safely. Was it in you. Know slowly enough rush regulation. There was this all some sort of a political move for candidate gain. And that's why. I'm wondering what the numbers would look like in the us compared to in other countries. Yeah we'll see. I think also after this is going to be a moving target. We'll see where the numbers are in a month but it is funny. But i understand what you're saying bob it. Yeah there's there's reason to be a little bit concerned but you are basically saying experiment on my neighbors. I walk

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