Florida: The swingiest swing state in the U.S. election


I want to talk a bit about how we got here and why at least since the the famous near Tie of two thousand does just seem to be Florida or at least partially about Florida. Michael ask, you first win and why did floor to become the key battleground? Republican hasn't won the White House without Florida forever. So that's part of the reason that it's become. So you know everybody desperately wants it and it just seems to be the self-balancing State where it's about twenty percent immigrants. But you know the last the last fifty, million votes that have been cast for presidential candidates in. Florida. Republicans. Democrats, are separated by about twenty thousand and we've had just about every election. Every statewide election seems to come down to one percent and just seems like every time another white person. Republican moves down here from the Midwest another democratic leaning Immigrants May move into central Florida from the Global South and so it's a really seems to be self-balancing. Beyond those demographics that Monolithic is it a case of elderly white pensioners voting for Republicans, and more recent arrivals from elsewhere trading Democrat or is there some kind of overlap between spillage among those groups? As you can probably imagine it's a little bit more complex in that I think that there's didn't kind of increasing awareness for both Democrats and Republicans that some of the key demographics here you know the American immigrants but you know you have the first generation, the second generation you have the newer arrivals you have the. You have the Cubans you have the Puerto Ricans have the Haitians. There's such a mix of people and cultures and experiences, and when you add to that kind of the New Yorkers that are coming to Florida to retire, and you have all these different politics and ideologies of mixed together I think you really get. Such a representation of both the Conservatives and the liberals in both the US. But also in Latin America and I think that when you look at South Florida, you see a lot of those kind of play. You see you know from Columbia, you see the Conservatives from Columbia and you see the progressives from Columbia. So you have such a makes of. Of just these ideologies that really comes to shine like Michael said in the way that people vote. Michael is the a geographic split within Florida as well because it's the general tendency in the United States and elsewhere that cities tend to be more liberal more vaguely left-wing rural parts of a given state or given country tend to be more conservative. Is that clear cut in that respect in Florida? Well, again I think. Could certainly right that it's always a little more complicated but that's generally true I think you know you saw in two thousand sixteen that Hillary Clinton did even better than expected in a lot of the urban areas She Barack Obama won Florida and Hillary Clinton. Did even better in some of the particularly in south Florida in Miami and Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach and some of the more urbanized area. But Donald Trump there was an absolute revolution of essentially white people in the exurbs coming out and voting for trump in the rural and sort of farther away from the cities you don't want to over stereotype. But it certainly true that the Republican coalition has you know the heart of it is older white people who are very reliable voters and the Democratic Coalition relies on younger urban lots of immigrants, lots of minorities who in the past have not been turned out has not been as High Bianca. Those factors taken into consideration that I guess the Republican Party's and democratic parties in Florida will have an amount obviously in common with the National Party and parties elsewhere is there still a distinctive political culture within Florida like basically what I'm asking are Florida Republicans different from other Republicans, into Florida Democrats different from other States Democrats. I think when it gets down to it when you're thinking of. Our Florida Latinos for example, are they always kind of leaning Democrat or you know Florida South Florida Latinos are they always leaning Republican as people kind of think a lot of the time because of the cuban-american population I think that a lot of that is is changing. So at whether whether or not, you're going to see more cuban-americans still voting. Republican. In the way that they usually do a lot of that is kind of breaking and and being undone because of the younger generation, you know really having more of an experience in the. US and seeing the way that their families grew up in thinking about healthcare and climate change as more of priorities to them. So you know I would say that the main difference if there was one is here you can see a lot of distinctive kind of you see mixed political ideologies in families. So I've met even candidates who are you know Democrats were running now for public office in Florida and their families are different completely different ideology from them. So I think that that's what's interesting right and what makes Florida you know such. Unique and fascinating state is that it's changing all the time and it's changing not just because of the of the new kind of waves of immigrants that are coming in but also the new generations that are really having a different kind of awareness than the one their parents did. We'll talk more in the second half of the program about how Florida may have changed in the last four years and what it might be like in this election. But Michael just before we do that I don't like to tempt fate too much by talking about what happened in two thousand when basically an entire parallel history of the twentieth century got chalked off by a margin of a few hundred votes in Florida but. Still. Talk about that election much in Florida and Walton immense sliding doors moment that was not just for the United States. But as it turned out for the entire world, you know I think that's a great way. Great way of putting it because it certainly was I mean you know you wouldn't have an Iraq war if it wasn't for five hundred, thirty, seven votes the other way. And I think it's just a great example of. Of. You know the way these these elections and Florida are always one on the margins. Sort of every community matters again at the margins these things make a huge difference. I think. You know Republicans have been much better organized since two thousand and you saw in two thousand with that Brooks brothers riot But but everyone knows it's going to be close and and that really is a place where every vote counts.

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