A highlight from 3 Altcoins I'm Buying This Week! (Insiders Are Accumulating)
Insiders are accumulating. At least that is what some of the on -chain indicators were showing us overnight. But in today's video, I want to break down exactly how the market is looking in what has been super interesting price action and give you the main altcoins that I am watching this week. As you guys know, it is a Monday stream which means it's an altcoin watch this show where I go through my favorite plays of the week, one of which is actually Bitcoin this week given the recent price action that we're seeing. And I'm actually live this week. So a lot of you guys that have been watching my shows over the last week or so would know I've been pre -recording. But now I'm back in the studio which means I'm back to live streaming most days. So yeah, I can interact with comments today, do a bit more of, you know, interacting with comments, talking about alts. So if you guys have any questions that you have about any of the plays that I'm setting up for this week, ask me in the comments and I'll get to them and we can make it more of a collaborative show. Welcome back all of my loyal viewers. I noticed we have some regulars here. We've got BlackSales, Rob, Crimson, you guys are back even though I haven't really been that consistent. So thank you guys for joining. Luigi says he's present as well. And let's get straight into the show. So before we get into the alts that I'm looking at this week, the first thing I want to do is look at Bitcoin because there are a few major things happening that I saw in both the on -chain data and the centralized exchange data. The first thing to note is that Bitcoin pivoted nicely off this horizontal range support at 25k. We know that structurally 25k is the key level to keep your eye on. Bitcoin actually responded pretty well in this region and I mean if you really want to simplify the market right now from a TA perspective, all you really need to know is that you have this major 25k support. You break below and Bitcoin is looking bearish from a momentum perspective. You break above the 31k zone and that puts Bitcoin into bullish territory. Maybe people don't really like simplifying things too much because we all love to know what's going to happen in the short term. But if we take a macro lens approach to viewing the market, we can assert that these are the two major ranges and any kind of price action in between then, although it would create opportunities, is not going to come in the way of a definitive bull market or a definitive bearish breakdown. So I think that's an important thing to note as well. Now going into more of the micro here, so going into the daily, going into the four hourly charts to look at what happened with Bitcoin, things start to get really, really interesting. We can see on the daily chart, we pivoted off the 25 .2k level. This was the level that was the initial structural level before the entire BlackRock ETF speculation. So when we got news that BlackRock was filing for an ETF that resulted in a strong pivot from this area at the 25k level, that was in correspondence with a bounce off the diagonal as well as the horizontal support. We pivoted recently off that level and now find ourselves chopping in a new range, which is being formed between the 25k level and the 27k level. Super interestingly, on the four hourly chart, Bitcoin showed like an extremely aggressive move yesterday to the upside and actually pumped into resistance at the 27k level. As you can see here, that was an area that acted as temporary support back in late August before it resulted in an eventual breakdown, therefore a test of the 25k region before Bitcoin actually reversed. And now we get another test, but instead of a support test this time, it's a resistance test into 27 ,300. Now this test was failed, but we can currently see right now Bitcoin is making up its mind on the four hourly chart, whether it wants to close above the 26 ,800 level or not. I still view this as a fairly key level, as it was the initial marking of the range that was initially set out in August. We can kind of hold above there that I think there's a large chance that we can actually smash the 27k level. But of course that's wishful thinking because right now Bitcoin is currently reversing and looks like it does want to close below, which would simply mean more chop over the next few days. So definitely keep your eye on that as well. In terms of open interest, this is where the tile and the title of this video comes in, at least at the time of recording. We might end up changing it later. That's the massive spike that we saw in open interest. So open interest is indicative of the total futures positioning in the market, both long and short for, in this case, Bitcoin. And what we saw last night was the largest open increase amount in a single day with a 15 % increase in the total open interest level. You can see here that's exhibited by this flurry of green candles to the upside. This is the open interest chart, which shows like insiders or someone like a big whale presumably was starting to position themselves. Because from a retail perspective, there wasn't much of a general catalyst over the weekend, over Sunday and Monday. But we still saw a massive increase in open interest. So this raised a lot of questions. Are insiders positioning themselves? Is there going to be a spot ETF approval this week? Is something happening behind the scenes? And although those questions are like extremely hard to answer, what we do know is that open interest was essentially faded in the 12 hours preceding the spike in open interest. So what does this tell us? Well, as I said, it's hard to get a definitive answer what the pump caused. It is likely that some sort of like big whale institution fund decided to open a position. I mean, that's what the volume and the open interest increase is suggesting. There was rumors flying around at the time, like by runner expertise, a few other traders, even I did mention this on my Twitter. Like, is this a potential ETF decision coming this week that insiders are starting to position themselves for? I maybe would have been leaning more on the side of yes yesterday. But given the fact that the move got really quickly faded and wasn't able to sustain, I would maybe now err on the side of no. And this was just irregular market movement or someone positioning themselves ahead of what was an eventual flush out. This doesn't mean that open interest can't recover again. Let's see what happens over the next day and see if it comes back. If this was just a short term leverage flush out after the finance news came out, which we're going to get into now. But let's just see where open interest tracks. It still was a huge spike though. And if we do look at open interest aggregated for Bitcoin over the last week or so, we could still see that even though we did have a massive reversal, we're still sitting higher. So we are kind of making higher lows on the open interest if we look at the month of September as a whole. In terms of the Binance news, we did get news that Binance US, the auditor of Binance US, found it very difficult to ensure the company was fully collateralized at specific points in time. Which led to a lot of FUD on Twitter and a lot of FUD online that Binance may in fact be insolvent. And I mean, this is something that has been floating around on Twitter for quite some time. And it seems to be every time the market gets a pullback, it seems to be some sort of Binance news. I mean, I was just a token 2049 in Singapore, by the way, amazing, amazing conference. But most of the negative like headwind -esque reasons why people thought the market could come down were mostly related to Binance. So although we have a lot of catalysts, a lot of tailwinds, the Bitcoin's body tip being one, the Bitcoin halving being one. Maybe like a positive liquidity injection sometime next year if the Fed's forced to pivot being another. So there's a macro argument both for the bull and the bears. Like the overarching bearish headwind that most people referred to was Binance. So it's quite interesting that in terms of just like retail and investor mindshare in general, this Binance FUD seems to be encapsulating the masses. And that is, I think, one of the reasons why every single time we get a pullback or every single time we get Binance news, because it goes hand in hand, right? News can cause price or price can sometimes actually cause news, even though that might sound counterintuitive. That's, you know, results in a Bitcoin dip. BlackSale says don't forget to hit the likes, of course. Remember to smash the like button. If you're watching the show, show me some support on my first livestream back in a while. I did do one last month, but I haven't been too consistent with it. But yeah, but I'm back to livestreaming now. So yeah, we could see the Binance news came out, and this is one of the reasons why Bitcoin decided to reverse. And this is just a topic that we're going to need to keep our eye on. I don't think there's some sort of kneejerk reaction we need to make, because just in order to say that it's difficult to ensure Binance is fully collateralized, that's not asserting that Binance is insolvent. Maybe that's hinting on the fact that their financials are skewed or their financials are ambiguous, but ambiguous financials don't necessarily imply any explicit wrongdoing. So I would be careful to make assertions. Adam Cochrane is definitely not careful in terms of making assertions, because he's asserted for some time now that Binance isn't solvent. If he does turn out to be right, obviously that would be pretty devastating for the market if the market was to realize and we saw some sort of Binance collapse. But people are certainly aware of it, and people are certainly positioning themselves in some way, shape, or form, whether that's in terms of their actual net positioning or just their mindset, that there could be some negative Binance news coming out over the next few months. And maybe that happens sooner rather than later, but I did think that was a contributing factor behind the OI and price reversal today. Someone said recession is coming. This will happen when everyone's unexpected, rates at an all -time high, debts at an all -time high, price at an all -time high. The economy is never the same as before. Yeah, I mean, it does seem like that. However, you've got to remember, every single time we've kind of called for a recession throughout history, I mean, it's a very common thing, right? Pretty much every single year that people are calling for a recession, the market has just gone higher and higher and higher over a wide enough standpoint. Does that mean we can't get downside because of recessionary fears this year? No. Does that mean the market couldn't correct next year? No. All I'm saying is that over time, people tend to assert that a recession is coming and it does come, recessions eventually do come, but a lot of the time they take longer and they come when people least expect it. And right now, I wouldn't say it's least expected. I would say most people are expecting a recession. The thing with recessions is you can't really time them. So even if you know they're coming, there's no real way to actually prepare yourself because even the best fund managers in the world, even the best analysts in the world, they can't pinpoint a recession. So there's no real tangible way to even trade off this. If you think a recession's coming, well, when's it coming? Next year? The year after? The year after? If you're waiting for a recession and there's a huge rally in the interim, then you're giving up potentially the best year of gains in the market, right? Just because you're waiting for a recession. We saw this in years like 2007, which were great years, 2006, leading into recessions, even though people thought the recessions were coming in 2003, 2004, 2005, because they didn't buy them, they gave up the gains over the next five years or three years in that case. Then by the time the recession came, sure, they were right, but markets pulled back to the levels that they were when they were first anticipating the recession. So it's a very difficult one to time. And yet that's why I'm kind of skeptical of letting these narratives infiltrate the way that I trade. The best way to prepare for a recession is to make sure you're adequately diversified.