September Jobs Report

Squawk Pod


It's the first Friday the of the month jobs Friday. When the Labor Department releases the number of American jobs lost or created the month before as well as the latest unemployment number jobs. Friday is always weighs on Friday and it's always at eight thirty. AM So on Squawk box. It's pretty much always free. There are a lot of voices in this conversation including our economics reporter. Steve Liebmann plus all of noisy traders behind our reporter. Rick Santelli who joins the team from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Andrew will walk you through the rest of our panel joining us now Halston Goolsbee in the Windy City University of Chicago Booth School of business professor and former council of Economic Advisers who's chairman. It's great to see you my friend. Kate Moore's here strategist at blackrock. Dave macintoshes joining US President of the club for Growth and a former US congressman. It's great to have everybody here. Let's get to Diana like she has. The numbers one hundred thirty six thousand nonfarm payrolls increased by one hundred thirty six thousand in September. The unemployment rate fell to three point five percent down from three point seven percent. That is the lowest level since nineteen sixty nine Diana thank you we're going to talk about all of this with some reaction from our jobs panel right now kate. Let's start with you. We never put anybody on the spot with saying exactly what that number was going to be but you were looking for a strong number and this is this really solid number the number. I was going to give one fifty nine with some downside. I feel like one thirty. Six is a healthy number especially because you saw the good healthcare number we expect expected little weakness in manufacturing retail. I think that's kind of par for the course of where we are in the cycle so I feel really good about this especially in light of what we had earlier this week in terms of 'em so so I think equities will do well to balance of the day. Hey Steve. You've had a minute to dig through some of that. What jumps out to you is the most important parts in this report are just trying to see the last night we had to be and a half percent unemployment rate and it looks like you gotta go back to nineteen sixty nine for one look. Here's the problem and we sorta flagged this problem back. in August as at August is very typically typically revised higher so the slowdown we thought we had in August at one hundred and thirty which we thought was hey. We're coming down to the place where we think we ought to be. That was your vice one sixty eight yeah and I think those are good. I think that tells us that. We're doing a little bit better than we thought we were doing. Retail has lots of problems down eleven thousand and then down on six thousand. We have to watch that sector. There's a huge transformation as you know happening over there. Look there's two scenarios that we're watching for here. Scenario number one is is a sort of expected slowdown as the crazy two hundred plus job gains of last year. Come back down to normal if we can settle in call it a one on twenty five to one fifty range that would be good and we're worried about the weakness going down below one hundred thousand. I think the idea that that we're now in zone own where it looks okay. It's pretty comfortable. It's not great but it's not terribly week. I called a win. Hey Rick Walk us through the market reaction to me. The biggest news without a doubt is that the markets looked at it as good news stocks and treasury yields but it's really a bad report in not for the jobsite wages this this is terrible unchanged month over month under three percent two point nine on a year over. Excuse me month over month year over year basis this these are good numbers. It's all about the money I stand. What do you think of this report. You know this kind of a mealy peach of a report. We're we're a little under what what what the forecast was okay like. Steve said it's it's okay but it's not it's definitely not Great Austin though you're looking at the wage issue decelerating eating not accelerating. How important is that to you. I think it's pretty important now that wages are steady after we've had several months where where they were growing. Hopefully this is a blip but I mean I'm telling you the thing driving this whole thing is that the GDP growth rate is slowing down and and a lot of the forecasters are now saying that they expect a one handle for the rest of the year if we get GDP growth falling down into the ones. I think the jobs odds numbers are GonNa fall apart and the ways numbers are going to fall apart dave when he think growth expectations for the rest of the year what are yours continued to be strong in the two to two and a half percent a from a political standpoint. This is very good news. The fact that the unemployment rate is an historic low. That's what most people around the country look at and the job. The creation rate is averaging now at one sixty three hundred sixty thousand a month when you compare that to pre trump the the Obama era at one oh nine that's very good news that he can take to the public and say we're. GonNa continue to grow the economy create jobs and the wage. It's a slight downward trend trend in the direction but it's still a positive increase rather than decrease in average wages

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