Listen: What the interim US-China trade deal means - and doesn't
"Malik is with the New York. Times McCain's is at the economist. Everybody let me to start with you. you're in the press conference with Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer today win. This deal was announced. We have Agriculture purchases a bunch of other. Other stuff we are rolling back. Some tariffs This is a real deal. Yes yes it is a real deal. I saw the deal. He Sort but of teased us by opening a folder whether these eighty-six pages worth of deal and then he closed folder again and said I'm going to show it to you now. So we're we're we're sure that they were real eighty six pages I well. I trust that his count was right. I didn't physically count them out. Let me ask you this this man and I'll stay with you for just a second As I said tag purchases were rolling back from tariffs. Isn't this sort of where we were. When this trade war started in the middle of two thousand eighteen yeah so so? I think there are a few different pasta. The deal right one of them is definitely this act purchases piece this these purchases that the Chinese are going to make and that is I think about out repairing some of the damage that the trade was done. But you can't fill eighty six pages with that there. There is some other structural stuff Apparently the Chinese have made commitments on intellectual. Property are some sort of regulate tree Arias dealing with a promise not to do some sort of technology. Transfer trump's third as an enforcement mechanism. There are real. There's real stuff there we obviously would like to read the text But I'm not ready to dismiss this as just returning to the status quo yet yet. Okay Fair enough and it has been promised probably in a couple of weeks we will see this text but genus. Mike let me ask you this. And and we'll we'll get more defend in a second but it is worth mentioning engineer that The president's chief economic adviser Larry Cudlow also said on. CNBC today that this will bring business stability and business confidence. That is something that Jay Powell and the Fed have been saving the economy from the president's economic policies for the past year. And a half right. So do you buy things are going to be different now. You know I think I think that's a two part answer so I think on one hand it you know. This is absolutely something the business community has been asking for and even sometimes begging for is a little bit more certainty around these rules so I think this is. This is good news it also comes at a convenient moment because the Fed has just kind of promised that it is going to take a step back and stop stop providing that kind of you know sort of constant support and helping hand and so I feel like this kind of is falling into place Could be good news for the economy. So many let me ask you this About this deal what I don't I truly don't want to be pessimistic here right because this deal is important if it's real and will bring upside benefit what happens and if somehow this thing falls apart in the next phase of negotiations which is also what Larry cudlow was promised that we're moving right to face to yeah I I think to be honest. It's it's wise is to be skeptical at this point And I think you know invested let has even said something to that effect When we were there at the White House the thing to watch out for is this enforcement mechanism there is going to be a process by which the the US and China will decide whether the living up to the deal right and if America decides actually China's China's not then there will be a process to put the tires back up again So they've they've written in a way to this to break down The other thing we know is that the the success of the next phase of negotiations is going to depend on how well this first phase goes so if there were suspicions than don't don't expect to see many more deals But yeah you know we don't we don't know it is but it is wise to be to be skeptical that everything is going to be hugged from now on I will not know how All right gina listener to the Fed. Here two two day meeting on interest rates Nothing changed and there seems to be a consensus that that perhaps the Federal Reserve is done for a while. And more to the point as I talked with your colleague from the Times Neil earned went about This week that that maybe the Fed now is acknowledging that somehow it it didn't necessarily have everything right the past couple of years right absolutely so I think one of the one of the things. They came out of this week's Fed conference. This is the number of times. Jay Powell either said or alluded to the fact that the United States is not at full employment which is kind of crazy because since roughly awfully twenty fifteen late two thousand fifteen early twenty sixteen which you obviously know. You know we've been telling everybody they've been telling everybody you know we're at or near full employment to the point that it kind of just became a trope. They said it all the time and so now I think the Fed is taking a step back and saying you know in the end they have been for to be fair for the past probably nine to twelve months they have been kind kind of headed in this general direction. But they're taking step back and kind of saying you know we are. We have a very strong labor market in some places. It's very tight but we are not not sure what full employment means in two thousand nineteen in a world where we don't see crazy wage pressures and we definitely don't see crazy. Inflation futures prices are still well below their target. You're more efficient coming up but a second. Let me ask you this and and I I know there was talk about this at the press conference I frankly forget. Are they basically done with rates. Do you think for twenty twenty absent Data that changes their minds. I think yeah absolutely and it sounds like. They're even a little bit skeptical that they know what's going to happen in two thousand twenty one so the committee has pencilled in the next move to be the at one hike in two thousand twenty one but we asked chair pal about that and he kind of said. Hey you know that's a long time from now and it's going to happen between now and then Judas all right Trade for the last questions. McCain's over to you. I don't WanNa give Short Shrift to the US MCA which W- the deal the agreement with the White House and and House Democrats was announced. Marginal gain big deal. Discuss okay so again. This is one where we might have to so I think one of the the big things that that that people on the left looking out for was whether it's labor rules would be properly enforceable and so I've been digging into the detail of this it does look like they secured some meaningful meaningful changes but all of the action here is in the in the implementation. Right it's one of those things where you really just don't know until you start to use it. and that's the common thread for both of these agreements right. I mean just in ten seconds. That's the short answer. We gotta wait and see. Yep and that's a boring slow on seventy one somme McCain's at the economist. Gina Smile at the New York Times. Thanks you too. I appreciate hangings have a nice"