Up-close photos from the Mars InSight mission’s launch pad

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Arrange there and we think that mars quakes are driven by sort of thermo elastic cooling the planet is a planet shrinks the crust kind of crinkles around it and those crinkles are all mars quakes so you can you can estimate sort of seismic potential from that and then finally we've looked at all the faults that you can see on the surface of mars mars is crisscrossed by faults there's wrinkle ridges where where the crust has been pushed together there are rifts where the the crust has actually been pulled apart in the the floor dropped down and you have motion along faults on either side and there's even a few strike slip faults that you can find on the surface and so we've gone through the exercise of of counting of all those faults in putting dates on all of them and by date i don't mean you know august thirtieth five billion bc now we know that your fees the set of falls happen you know three billion years ago and this set of false happened two billion years ago and this had pulse happened one and a half billion years ago and then we can put those lines on a plot and then extrapolated with an exponential function to the to the present and get an estimate of what we think that that and all those numbers more or less coincidentally hopefully because they're kind of right tend to be about the same number and that number indicates that we should see something like a few dozen kind of globally observable earthquakes on mars in the two year lifespan of our prime mission plus or minus a factor of ten or plus or minus the factor of one hundred because this is really a discovery mission i mean we're going and measuring something that's never been measured before no matter how smart you are as a scientist you always have to remember that until you actually measure it you really don't know hypothesis until then that's why we do it right absolutely it's nice though when the existing data kind of all converges and sometimes that can fool you but it's usually is a good sign all right can't wait to get to the first of those i was so envious of my colleague emily lock wallet because she got to go north to vanderberg air force base and go into the clean room with you you both look grading your bunny suits and i should say that this.

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