A highlight from The Bettor's Box MLB Betting Podcast July 15, 2021

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Dot io. Got that posted here for today. Some quick bullet-point thoughts on the red sox and yankees game coming up tonight than also some of my thoughts on the second half a lot of the same stuff that i'll be talking about here on today's edition of the podcast makes you know the. Ats app you can find in the google. Play store or in the apple store. It's a bet tracker and odd screen stats database. Full article integration from the website. All kinds of good stuff in that. Ats app so you can download that four android or devices from the google. Play store or from the apple store other content over at ats dot io this week at a had a gulf preview up for you that term and of course i round pretty much over now across the pond put together by college football power ratings for this week my first edition for july. Check that out over at the website to go along with a couple of articles about some college football season win. Total bets both being at over is an under some of my favorite players based on my projections based on my numbers to check that out over at eighty s dot. Io as well of see preview for this weekend already have a nascar preview for this weekend so lots of good stuff going on for in check out over there at ats dot iso so with that. Let's just talk in general here about the second half of the major league baseball season some of the things. I talked about a little bit on monday in passing but some things. I want to go a little bit more in detail with here today show. We'll talk about some futures that i'm looking at some adjusted season win totals as promised then preview. The weekend ahead here as major league baseball comes back with the start of the second. Half and first and foremost the biggest thing with regards to the second half to keep in mind. Is the major league baseball trade deadline. Because that's just sixteen days away now and the trade deadline has a significant impact on a lot of different things around the league first of all for buyers. Obviously they get better. They fill needs they improve usually in the bullpen. Maybe get some more starting pitching depth more bench depth. Something like that. There will be some starting level. Players like a kris bryant. Possibly a freddie freeman other guys like that cesar hernandez from the indians guys like that that could wind up. Switching teams wind up being impact players. But a lotta times. Teams are just adding to their depth and depth is very important here for this season with the rash of injuries and of course pitchers working higher workloads than they previously had over the last You know what eighteen months or so with that. Kobe shortened season. So depth will be very important the buyers will get better and now we know who the buyers are at this point in time when i look at the american league i think there are five playoff teams and i think that's pretty much it when the national league things are maybe a little more wide open but there will be three playoff teams from the national league west so we know who the buyers are going to be for the most part now when we look at the sellers and sort of the thought process behind all of that look. It's not easy to be a seller especially if you're kind of a pseudo contending team or something like that where these teams. They go into the season with expectations and the reality that they're going to fall. Short of those expectations can have a negative impact on the and certainly it will have a negative impact in the short term as those players wind up getting traded now the obvious sellers here are teams like the cubs are teams. That are you'll bottomfeeders. The royals the pirates. All those different kinds of things but when you look at the emotions behind being a seller right near the chicago cubs for example they got their world series in two thousand sixteen but now their core group is kind of falling apart here know the ownership group kind of complaining about not having money about the kobe shortened season. No attendance all of that so their position players kris bryant anthony rizzo and heavier. Baya's two of them. They probably would have had the chance to extend but unable to do that. Coming into the season you wonder how many of those guys will hang around and if nothing else. They'll at least listened on the free agent market so the cubs are a team. That what they've already told everybody. Look we're going to be sellers and we know that kris bryant will go go because there's no chance that they re signed him but this is a steam now that for the next sixteen days is on pins and needles. Do these guys get traded. When does that trademark it kind of set up a little bit because you get those initial trades that set the market you know what are rental starting pitchers worth what are rental hitters worth and obviously there are different degrees of talent to that group of players. But there's gonna be a deal that winds up setting the market here at some point. Somebody's going to go out there. Make a trade. That's going to be the going rate currency so to speak to acquire players. So are the cubs going to try and set this market a cubs going to try and get some teams to buy a little bit higher. You know there are a lot of teams contenders that could use a kris bryant. That could use any anthony. Rizzo that could use a hobby or bias and upgraded shortstop something like that. So that's what you're looking for. Now is who kind of sets that market. And in the meantime those teams that are well defined sellers sort of sitting on pins and needles. The business of baseball everybody talks about it being the business of baseball having been before and all of that but the reality is when your friends and teammates get traded. It's tough you know. It's a very difficult thing not only professionally because it signals the end of your competitive nature for this season but just personally. A lot of these guys can growing up together. You think about rizzo and bryant coming up through the system together and all of that. It's a very difficult thing for a lot of players to compartmentalize and that will have an impact. Generally on their performance in on the team's performance as a whole so these next two weeks or a little bit dicey in that regard in terms of teams that will be making trades specifically of ten your players. You'll maybe the twins optum move nelson cruz. Al contender so these are things that can have an impact on a team's performance on a teams effort level on teams engagement level. And all of that. So that is something that we do need to factor in the equation here as we handicap to the rest of this month of july. And of course there is the waiver trade deadline. That's kind of an altogether different animal in the month of august but the traditional trade deadline is really what we're looking at here off for the rest of this month of july now as we look down the line and maybe this is something it even happens here after the all star break prospects right last year sixty games at the mlb level. The alternate training site with the sixty player pool but no major league season. So you're going to have a lot of teams that traditionally would have called up guys in september. And maybe they won't know because they'll be worried about protecting those players protecting those arms making sure you don't have some sort of injury that takes a player from preparing for season two rehabbing for season. So that's something. I'll be very curious to watch. How teams handle their prospects. How teams deal with many innings limits. Do we see more six men rotations. Do we see kind of piggyback scenarios. Or maybe pitchers get limited to sixty five seventy pitches three four innings. Something like that. You know i'll be really curious to see how teams start to handle this. And furthermore if teams are upfront about their plans are team's going to say look you know like the tigers for example right. I do lean with the tigers season win. Total over with the tigers. Right casey mayes teric google map manny. They already have some guys like alex. Fado that are hurt in their minor league system. So do they maybe cap a casey mayes at a hundred and forty innings or hundred and thirty innings. Or something like that. Do they do the same with terek school. What do teams like the tigers. Do with these young arms will the mariners kind of cap. Logan gilbert at some point. I think it's definitely a possibility. So that's something that maybe down the line. We have to concern ourselves with a little bit more. But if you are looking at these adjusted season win total markets. Something like that isn't something that you absolutely have to keep in mind. How will teams handle these guys. Once the month of september rolls. Around to where you know.

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