Whats the point of a three-day lockdown?
Happy new year to everybody. And because you're listening to this you know we're back earlier than we said we would be partly be- well miceli definitely because things are not as smooth sailing as. We hoped that they would be in the early weeks of two thousand twenty one coming in so we thought we'd just get back here and so so came listening to the show that i am based in greater brisbane and last night. We came out of a three lockdown. So norman can we talk a bit about. Why a three day lockdown when we know that the incubation period for this virus is sort of fourteen days ish good question. We've had a few questions along those lines. About what was the logic for it. I think it was really to give queensland a chance to see what was happening. There the contractors to get organized and actually just to put a pause on community transmission. And i suspect what was in their minds was that it might not have been the three day locked on that. It might actually have ended up being a seven to ten days lockdown just fit in maybe with the first incubation period but luckily there haven't been any cases so they're in good shape and able to lift it. Which in the sense what happened in the sense that it's the same thing that happened so straight just getting quickly. See what's going on. And yet it is a bit disruptive no question it was over a weekend which does minimize that which is fortunate but they know where they're standing and zero cases and the can liftoff to see what happens. some commentators. Say that lockdown is too heavy handed especially when in this case in brisbane there was only one confirmed cases. The woman who worked at the quarantine hotel Lockdowns too heavy handed is it. Catastrophe shot an entire will five different local government areas down just because of one case. Well that's a matter of debate. Certainly in the twitter sphere. There's criticism was on a tour. An op-ed the other day suggesting that it was all over task and the principal. Here all along has been in hard fast early and then just get things under control. See where you stand and yes. There's no question that it's disruptive mind you at this time of year when businesses are not fully back it's much less disruptive than it was although it does in queensland affect the tourism industry. There's no question that people are inconvenienced by it. I mean this is not something that comes out of thin air. We're offering her own opinions here. There are epidemiologists at the burnet institute who've managed pandemics before non influenza pandemics and others queensland south australia have done it and i know that from contact with at a high level with victoria that they were looking askance at new south wales even before they imported cases from new south wales. That new south wales wasn't doing enough and you don't know whether in new south wales they're doing pretty well but you don't know whether in fact they be at zero cases now gone for a quick sharp locked. I will never know the answer to that or whether we'd have fewer cases if they'd gone mandatory masking earlier than that one of the things that is the justification for these lockdown that happened in greater. Brisbane was the fact that the woman who had it had these uk strain of the virus which has been widely publicized as being more infectious than the original coronavirus strain. How worried should we be about this. Uk strain if you go back to what we know. About the sars covey to virus it is infectious left to its own devices in its previous variants on average one person who paid two point five people but it doesn't work that way. It's not like influenza where you automatically would infect two point five people eighty percent of people who get covid nineteen. Dont pass it on. The super spreading is more environmental. So you've got a large family family events going on you go to a pabre restaurants you pass it on there. In the case of the barral clustered so liquor store so there are various places that you pass it on. And it's likely that this variances the same that you are likely to pass it on in a cluster situation however it does seem to be genuinely more infectious instead of the are not the reproductive number being two point five. Maybe three point five. That's what the model or calculate the smartest so much more infectious. Maybe that means that it's more likely to spread in non cluster situations. I don't think any of this is clear yet. And until we know more about it than the best thing to do is overreact in a sense although the analysis of the situation to be that you overreacted. Better than being in a situation where you're chasing your tail and your contact tracers will being overwhelmed And on the other hand is it enough. So we've got a question from someone saying if the brisbane quarantine cleaner was infectious in the community between the second to the fifth of january. And we know that the incubation period is somewhere between five and days then if she has inadvertently infected someone you wouldn't see those cases being reported until the not to the fourteenth of january. So we're not out of the woods yet nor would shit. And there's no question people in greater brisbane due to infect all of queensland have to get tested at very high rates with the slightest bit of fatigue headache cough cold runny nose