May's Brexit delay and Corbyn's second referendum - Politics Weekly podcast


Is just twenty nine days until we leave the European Union. Or is it one hundred twenty three days trees may announce this week if a deal is defeated on March the twelfth parliament will be asking MP's wanted to leave with no deal or extend article fifty remains were modified and leave as horrified. The Daily Telegraph declaring that delaying Brexit was a plot to stop it. She also offered some consolation for MP's wanting to avoid no deal telling them the United Kingdom will only leave without a dealer March twenty ninth if there's explicit consent in this house, but maize proposed extensions just for three months, and it's unclear whether she would vote against an audio Brexit itself. So has anything really changed what I'm joined to discuss all this by Rafael bat and politics and be from the guardian and the former advisor to may will Tana he was now the director of the think tank onward, so we leaving on the twenty ninth. No. I think not I think the fact that I've one dirty voted to make an extension possible means everybody wherever they stand apart from the handful of lunatics who didn't vote for it only twenty is it turned out think that if we get a Brexit. We're still going to need more technical time. And then there are others who think if we can push it out of it further, we get closer perhaps to a referendum being the only thing left standing with parliament, Kamel degree a deal. That's what we'll have to have. So one way or another. It seems to be most likely could be sure could belong the will allow extension. What can we do in that in that time that we haven't been able to do the posterior will? I mean, there are a number of factors involved in this crucial. One is the the twenty seven also really really don't want no deal scenario. I mean in this country there were handful of people who think that's a great idea. But really, the the overwhelming majority view rational human beings is it would just be a mess and a problem for all. Sides worse for the UK, but still very bad of the twenty seven. So if you could avoid that happening the no deal scenario happening on the twenty ninth of March. Then yes, there is oversee will at the European Council level to do it of the concerns are. And this is particularly I think concern on the French side that all your doing is just playing this Theresa May game of desperately busking kicking the can down the road as you say hoping that something different will happen. Whereas actually that the central parameters of negotiation, the the arithmetic and in Westminster, the all the red lines Theresa May says up in for the Goshi Asian don't change, and therefore nothing changes. So really, what would be the points. And then there is another very important practical consideration, which is European parliamentary elections do you at the end of may and. Legally and technically and on principle. It becomes enormously. Awkward to imagine the UK either going through that process without having election because notionally relieving leaving the EU, but we would still be members or having that election, which then becomes his horrible wit proxy vote about Brexit, or it becomes a day factor referendum or just becomes gold knows what electing MEP's who then might notionally than sort evaporates after Brexit, actually happens. So does the long onto the short answer is you could get an extension, but it would you'd have to they would be conditions. It's hot you'd have to be very clear about what you're using it to do. Well, the provinces said over and over and over again that we are leaving on the twenty ninth month. And I actually remember when she delayed the vote just in December. We said it will. Does this mean probably that we're heading for an extension and people were so adamant that it didn't mean that. So what why she done it is it is it. A cabinet ministers is independent griebel's. The what's the rationale? Well, I think we need to be clear that the prime minister hasn't has suggested that we all definitely going to have an extension. She has merely said that parliament will have a choicest whether or not to have a nodule Brexit or not if they if they votes not have no diverted then to vote for a short extension. So she's essentially putting the choice in the hot enhancer parliamentarians. And I think that's that's crucial. We've heard over the last three or four six months that actually put him in wants to take control of this process. It will have an opportunity to do. So, but within that is a clear decision between whether or not you want to deliver on the referendum results or to suffer the consequences of not doing that. And a lot of the MP's. I've spoken to in the Las in Las few days are actually increasing leaning towards the prime minister's deal. Subject potentially some changes around the backstop on the basis that dilution or delay. Brexit is far. Worse than the consequences of voting for her deal. I think essentially the prime minister's trying to show up in the minds of her colleagues, and including some of the labor MP's leave voting seats. We mustn't forget that sixty percents of labor MP's or league voting seats in order to force them to make a decision because ultimately we've been fixing a lot on process. Lost sixty nine months. We haven't been focusing very much on the outcome. We've been trying to seek she needs. She needs sixty two in peace to switch with people Robert Half on. He said they will. But there aren't off lots of heads popping up to say. So where do you think she's got do so far I believe actually behind the scenes, they're aquatic considered number of conserved fan piece who are reconsidering that position and have been somewhat reinsured by some of the noises. That's the prime minister and others have made about progress. Jeffrey courses be making around the back to speak up after a once they've decided to be loyal. Why wouldn't they be waving flags for it? It's been all the note. Well. Dinovite. Yuba woman MP NPR Boston Skegness one of the most leaf voting seats in the country explicitly single Twitter last night that he would vote for the prime minister's deal over any today. Her Jacob smoke making very clear last night that some of his previous declarations about very hard changed the all out not to be true. Because he said he's still needed a fixed time limit. We'll let the same as abolishing a yesterday. But I think the difference there is that I think that this is not actually the I don't think there's uniform. Opinion across the E R J. There are some people who still really want to see the backstop removed entirely from the withdrawal agreement reopened in that bit those pages torn out, and there are those. You know, Jacob rees-mogg is among them. It's interesting to to think of ministry softer and of the group, but who said that an appendix with an end date or something that in effect changes. Jessica legal advice is something that he would agree to. And that is something that is seems hard to get but his paps impossible to get while e- e you've

Coming up next