Listen: Rams, Texans And Chiefs discussed on Joe Giglio
"Happy Thursday shows flying by and a lot of help days Kovacs is off Tom to Benedetto is here producing producer underscore, Tom and ZIM Mike Zimmerman hanging out with us to killing it ZIM CBS on Twitter. And so I'm going to go over a few of these games and just get some some perspective here from the guys, and I'll give you my take as well who you like where you might put your money who you think's going to win right now, by the way tightened up on the Jags thirteen to two one big game this weekend. Particularly for possibly that second by assuming that she's ski winning football games. It is Houston playing at home against Indy. Four and a half point favorites is how the lines open they've shifted. I'm gonna look at my little gambling side here guys use it as one a ton of football games in a row. It is hard to win one eleven in a row if they were they one nine in route to get to ten in a row. I li- I actually like Houston in this game four and a half four and a half is not that many points. They're five and one at home. Call seven manakin on the road. I like this team a lot, but they're gonna have to score a lot to keep up with the Texans after they got shut out last week. I'm with you Texans, minus four and a half. Where are you coming down? This is tough. Because you you want to your occurs. The way Andrew luck has been playing. They've been key. They've been able to keep him upright. I just think tight Texans are just too hot four and a half. It's a it's a tough line. I I will I'll take the Texans modest the points though. I think part of the reason I like the Texans. Here's that Indies win streak, and they were one of the hottest game teams in football till last week over that win streak. They had allowed luck to be a single time over the same stretch. Just for comparison say Aaron Rodgers insect eighteen times Texans can get to the quarterback. And so we saw anything it's a one off. But you get to Andrew lock you can somewhat neutralize what he does. He and the Texans defense is the unsung part of what they're doing. Everybody can see well Watson and the offense for doing. But their defense is we thought they were going to be really good before the season they weren't for a while. And now they've gotten their I mean, they are they are so fond of what they're what we thought. They were gonna be last year before DeShaun Watson got hurt in jaywalking. I come into the year when we thought there was some real potential. They're the cheese finds amazing to me. And I I hate betting against the chiefs. Baltimore the different football team with Lamar Jackson starting their run game has been interestingly with with the Mars the starter. They've three game win streak now at seven five for Baltimore. Now, the games at Arrowhead but over this win streak over the streak for Baltimore. They have rushed for two hundred yards all three consecutive games. No team has done it since nineteen seventy eight four times in a row. Two hundred more rushing yards as a team on the ground. Kansas City's not good defensively on any level including rushing defense. I think they're twenty four twenty fifth in the NFL. I'm actually a little worried for cancer. You just about the game. A letdown game. The Kareem hunt thing, I think the raiders were true tests. They're six and a half point favorites. That's a really big line. I think I'm going to avoid it. But if I had the better, I don't really I might that Baltimore talk about terrifying defenses. The ravens defense has been playing amazing is hitting their stride right now. It's kind of a weird matchup for Mahomes. But on the flip flip side. I don't know. I think the chiefs are uniquely position here to be able to give Lamar Jackson submit. Shoes I've been obsessively watching Lamar Jackson. There's a lot to love and he is tough to stop. He misses a lot of wide open. Throws the ball over any turns the ball over. So this is a situation where it's going to be closed for a while. I think but then he's gonna keep up on offense. I am picking them under a touchdown Kimmy. Kansas City fun fact zoom in Tom if you wanna just the ravens have not allowed a three hundred yard passing game this year, and they have not allowed a one hundred yard receiver this year. That's crazy. I I like the points. I like ravens plus six and a half. He I don't think it'll necessarily happen this game because the events not too good. But at at what point are the ravens going to have to ask Lamar Jackson throw the ball. Because I mean, they they really haven't asked much of him. I mean a few times here and there, but it's been it's been the ground game. So at what point down the stretch when they need him to throw the ball. Are they going to let him or are? They just going to stick with his run game. I agree. I don't think I think know, I it's two things. Right. I guess like my first reaction was it's not gonna happen against the chiefs. But the chiefs get up twenty one points, exactly fourteen points, are here's a here's a tricky one. New England's New England. But they do struggle in Miami. They are one and four in their last five games in Miami. And interestingly the dolphins against the patriots are I think it's twelve and four twelve and five and December going back over the last fifteen years, or whatever that the number of games that have been crunched into there. And in those last five games those that one four record for the patriots down in Miami. The last five years, Tom Brady's been bad. His completion percentage is in. The fifty eight percent range is turn the ball over a lot. And it's not like the dolphins have been these worldbeaters over that stretch New England. It's a big game for them. They're trying to chase down the chiefs for the number one seed they're trying to fend off the Texans for the by New England's five home and three and three on the road. Which makes you more worried about them on the road and more of them to make sure they're playing playoff games in Foxborough seven and a half is the line where it opened. That's enough. That's enough for me going patriots. No no on dolphins. Patriots last week too. And I hated myself for it. It seemed like a smart pick. This is the same thing over thinking. But I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna pick Miami. You're going to over thinking over thinking, I really have. I'm not over thinking it I and I'm going with the dolphins as well. I think seven and a half is a lot of points, especially in this game between the two teams where they always seem to play close regardless of records and the dolphins are still fighting for that for that playoffs by you can almost pencil in New England for the division. I it's pretty much a given almost where is we almost ten years in a row, whereas the dolphins still are fighting for for that wildcard spot. So I know it's cliche. I know it's a narrative, but the team that has something to fight for usually plays up to their competition. I I liked it. Interesting reality or fact to for New England. When if when they clinched their division it'll be the tenth year in a row it will set not just an NFL record. It'll be the first time that a team has just made the playoffs. Ten years in a row in the National Football League. Let alone winning here division, even with the benefit of the wild which the patriots have not required and in the four major sports leagues in this country. It will only happened twice. It'll have happened when the patriots -ccomplish it and the Atlanta Braves did it as well making the playoffs. Ten years in a row this game's not super-critical for the playoffs as it is for Carolina. I just think it's an interesting game. Carolina going the wrong direction not playing well in Cleveland one happened favorites. Cleveland, obviously has played better since you went away. I have ruled by the way, I always I don't bet on patriots games. And I'll bet on Browns games, which I violate every week and lose money where you guys come into. I I'm stuck on this one. Because here's here's a a thing that I just don't understand Christian McCaffrey has sort of raised his his game. Whereas the Panthers is as a team have sort of fallen off it, you would think that when McCaffrey has been playing lights out the Panthers would be successful. But it's sort of been the opposite McCaffrey doing everything he possibly can. And the Panthers are just struggling at this point. I don't know why. It is bizarre. I kinda like Cleveland, I hate it. When I say that because I always lose this is this is probably the hardest pick this week the Panthers absolutely should win this game. But that goes for the lions game three weeks ago they lost because for the Seahawks game at home two weeks ago. They lost it goes to the the buccaneers lost their in free fall. I that size sums it up close, and you and you have to give away two points on the road. It's. I'm probably going to pick the Panthers. But I would lay off this game Dallas opened as three and a half point favorites at home against philli. I I know I'm crazy. I kinda like failure. Really do. I know you've come down on trust them eagles. And I'm kind of had belief in his Cowboys thing that's happening. They may be up for an energy letdown after that saints win. I'm gonna pick them again, though. All right. I'm not gonna say Dallas or choke artists as we've referenced throughout the show. I just don't trust them down the stretch until they actually proved me wrong. I gotta I gotta go the eagles here. Here's a really really interesting one. And I'm a bears fan, but Chicago's at home. The Rams offense is amazing. The bears. Defense is amazing. The Rams have done better than anyone else in football. Protecting the football the bears evens. It's better than anyone wanted taking the football way. The Rams this year are by far the best team at avoiding three and outs. The bears have forced the most teams into three announces your football. Twenty eight percent of times this year. In terms of how many percentage of drives or three nights against the bears. More than one four. I could go on and on and on. This is the interesting showdown. The Rams are good defensively in our minds IVA. They really haven't been statistically. But we know they're capable of being great. They have the best defensive player in the game are made by Aaron Donald is probably should be the MVP. Even though he won't win the award the games in Chicago and the bears. Need is not a must win those things that that's a stupid expression. But because they played chase. Daniel by the way, America. It's daniel. There's no S on the end, I've heard professional athletes. It's Daniel singular university, Missouri. Thank you. Three and a half is the line is the line when it opened it's shifted. That's what it is where I'm sort of looking at it. What do you guys think it's been tough all week because it opened at three and a half? I think it's going to be a field goal game. I didn't want to give the three and a half points. Now that it's down to three I'm comfortable saying, I'll take the Rams and risk the push. I'm gonna take the Rams. But I think it's going to be a great game. Yeah. I gotta go Rams here. And I guess Yuki. I guess you can cancel out the Rams offense and bears defense. You you would think they're gonna those two sides of the ball are going gonna play each other tight. So then it comes out to Rams defense against bears offense, and and as poorly as like you mentioned the Rams defense has been playing statistically you have to give that the edge over that bears. Offense who really struggled against the lions on thanksgiving one and land even last week against the giants didn't really play. Well, how how do you use a trick play the end to get into overtime? What about maybe I'm over thing is a bears fan, which means I am going to be in the twenties at Soldier Field. Jordan howard. Hasn't been utilized much by Matt Nagy? But that kind of a power runner, not a finance. Rauner more valuable in really cold weather. This Rams team is a Los Angeles team. Jared Goff has been LA kid and a west coast kid his entire life. Any concern that the weather has an impact on the game? I don't you gotta throw against his team secondary's their weakness. So that's why I'm leaning against the bears. If Mitch comes out and throws for three hundred yards. They're probably gonna win this game. If he can't throw when every game that he can do that. Basically.."