A highlight from #59 Tactical Tuesday: Bluffing On 4-Flush Runouts

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Welcome. Welcome. Welcome to another episode of tactical Tuesday. Once again, I am joined by my co host, John for this very tactical of days. John how you doing sir? How's it going? We got a pretty good theme this time or a strong theme this time across both of the hands that we're going to be breaking down. The theme is going to be finding bluffs and thinking about bluff sizing on four flush runouts. I think that's one of the situations where I kind of struggle to know what the right hands to bluff are and also what the rightsizing to go is. I think a lot of things that I think about when it comes to bluffing go out the window on four flush runouts like blockers don't really matter, aren't really a thing, for example. So yeah, just a couple forefront up bluffs that I thought it would be cool to get your opinion on both weather as the appropriate an appropriate situation to bluff and whether my river sizing makes sense. Cool. Let's do it. Let's dive into these hands. So you got queen Jack of hearts. You opened a 22 under the gun. And the big blind defends, do we know anything about the big blind? The big blind is a rag as far as we know. All right, so we have a rag in the big blind. Floppy 8, 6 deuce, all diamonds. You have the queen Jack of hearts. Villain checks and you bet half pot. Yep. So just kind of going off a data read here that just villains in general or regs in general struggle to defend against big sizes on monotone boards. So while I think this is definitely going to look a little strange in the pool, half pot is now kind of my go to bluff size I'm monitoring boards in a position. And what would the pool normally do? Like a third? I would expect a lot of checking on the swap, maybe close to pure check and if they were going to have a strategy that included betting probably really, really small sizes like under a third or maybe even as far down as a quarter plot. Yeah. Makes sense. All right. So you bet, a half pot, villain calls, turn is the 5 of spades completing our hand of queen Jack of hearts and then absolutely nothing on the board. No connection. No, anything. And villain goes ahead and checks. And so the action is on you with this queen Jack of hearts on no bear no draw, no connectivity, and you opt to bet two thirds. Tell me about your decision to bed here. Just following through with the plan on the flop, planning on certainly over bluffing these swap textures by going large, large, large. Even if I get called here on the turn, my plan is to blast the river one more time. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. Like I probably would check here. Personally, I think that theoretically, okay, so villain has a fair amount of flushes, villains got a bunch of sets, like I don't know that we have a ton of three street value hands, like black aces, for instance, is not going to go for three streets. I wouldn't imagine on this monotone board. So when you polarize on the turn, you're repping, basically, flushes, and then not flushes. And I just think it's hard to have a flush. You know what I mean? So I don't know. It's hard to have a lot of ability here. You're just not repping a ton of super strong hands. So, I mean, obviously, and you mentioned it that this is an exploit. But I would personally just check back and then kind of use the data point of whether villain checks or bets the river and kind of make my decision from there. But I just think that it's hard for it's hard to realize a bunch of fold equity when we don't have a ton of hands that just want to barrel through. I agree. I mean, I think that I definitely do think that I'm repping just like an incredibly narrow value ranger. I think I probably would also bet on the turn the flop and the turn. So I think just like my defense, I think I have a few more value heads than just flushes. But yeah, you got 6, 6 more combos of 6s and 8s. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I'm fine. Yeah, I probably don't put flies on the flop here. Maybe 7 9 student. Maybe we got the 7 9 suited something to get some straight. I don't know if I open that under the gun, but anyways, basically I'm sort of saying screw all that like screw all the fact that I'm ripping so thin. I think just going the exploit of the fact that the big white is not going to be able to defend even close to enough facing three big bets on a monotone flop is really what I was leaning on more so than what our actual range interacts with this board. Yeah, I mean, I think, while I understand the thought, I still don't think that we generated a ton of folds because wrapping a narrow value range against a player who is likely a non believer at heart and can hand read and recognize you don't have a ton of value like is problematic in and of itself. We're still playing this hand. In isolation. So yeah, I think just like strategically, a lot of your hands want to play for one more bet. All the over pairs, for instance, and even like your top pairs, your 8 9 students or whatever. So yeah, I just think that like when you check behind the turn, you have a higher concentration of bluff catchers on the river, which makes villains less likely to bet the river because we do have a fair amount of hands that can blow catch. And also basically, if they're less likely to bluff the river when they bet, they eliminate some of the value hands in their range and they're more likely to fold versus the stop and go. If that makes sense. Hey, eliminate value hands on the event. Oh, I see. I see. Okay, yeah. So when they're checking green just slightly weaker than they're ready. Right. Okay. So like when they check, we get a natural opportunity to Beth the river. Okay. So anyway, yeah, I would check back here just for those reasons just because I don't know. When you play against these guys that understand the pods model and they're trained to sniff out bluffs and to

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