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25 Million Jobs Under Threat From Pandemic, ILO Says

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Early indications from the economic fallout of Kobe. Nineteen that he could cost up to twenty five million job losses. Globally that's more than during the global financial crisis in two thousand eight to nine speaking to you and US Daniel Johnson Shove Eric. From the International Labor Organization ILO EXPLAINS HOW GOVERNMENTS CAN HELP. Soften the impact for vulnerable works. The Island has made some clearly estimates to look at the impact of covered nineteen crisis on the labour market using islas models. We've come up with an initial estimate that ranges from five point three to twenty four point seven million so the figure of twenty five million is wiped. We have called a high scenario but given the way the crisis has evolved further deterioration economy. This looks increasingly likely. As a scenario for the impact of the shock that the economic shock on the labor market around the world. Now just to put that in context unemployment in two thousand eight nine increase by twenty two million during the global financial crisis so we are looking really at a crisis that is potentially greater than global financial crisis in two thousand and eight nine. Yeah and you also say the the International Labor Organization that it's going to cost globally three trillion dollars or thereabouts. Maybe three and a half trillion. But I think an interesting question is you did bring up the two thousand and eight financial crisis. How many jobs were regained in the economy after that? How long did it take for the recovery? I suppose so one of the key lessons of the global financial crisis and also early crises. That that type of situation in that recession that hit the world takes a long time not only for the economy to recover but in particular the labor market and we saw that it took a number of years for unemployment levels to return to pre-crisis levels in some cases sure and before we get into the policy recommendations from the low to help cushion the blow. Maybe you could tell me how which sectors really are going to suffer. I mean you mentioned in the report that self employees particularly in developing countries going to suffer. Because there's a lot of restrictions of movement on people for example and the move to goods as you've already said so. How are they going to cope in the meantime? That's right so we see a number of under abilities in terms of sectors. Of course they're not only issues in the manufacturing sector which we saw early on when the crisis started in China. But what we see. Now it's strong impact on the service sector so given the constraints to the movement of people and how we're working the border closures. Quarantine majors we all of course necessary to contain the spread of the pan-demic but these are putting major breaks on the way we consume. That's affecting the service sector so retail of course tourism is suffering very shop and severe shock as we speak a group that is particularly vulnerable in. This situation. Are the self-employed because the self-employed need their own safety. Net most countries are relying on their own savings as a safety net and then in in particularly in developing countries. Most of the self-employed don't have that luxury and they don't have access to social protection so they are very vulnerable to losing their income and their livelihood for a period of months which will have a very significant impact on them and their families and really poses a risk of a deterioration in working poverty. As we've pointed out as well so are we going to help them? What can we expect the International Labor Organization to do? And how is it going to do it? We need to see decisive response now. Needs to be coordinated. This is a very important message that has brought out that we saw in two thousand eight. Nine coordinator response is going to be more effective. But we've also highlighted three areas that deserve policy tension and that's protecting workers in the workplace particularly from the direct effects of the pandemic secondly stimulating economy to stop it from collapsing and thirdly supporting employment and incomes in different ways so I think when we look at stimulus that is really being announced by many countries is absolutely critical to ensure that the economy doesn't further collapse and bottom out so we see this informs of fiscal policy accommodative monetary policy. But then really what we need to see and number of countries is stepped up in this area but needs to be done consistently across all countries is special support not only to large enterprises which are important but also smaller enterprises and self employed. So this can come in different forms. It can come in. Forms of guarantee subsidized loans grants. We've seen in a number of countries already. Texas relief relief on other types of costs that the businesses facing because really the east to ensure that those businesses remain in operation. And they're ready to take things forward once a recovery gets underway simply for women and other all workers. We're proposing measures to as much as possible for employment to be retained so these also involves subsidies and types of relief for employers to keep workers on board in many European countries have different types of schemes such as the courts I bite in Germany etc. Other countries need to experiment with what type of support that can give businesses to keep workers in place and this is really critical because of you know we're talking about the service sector. Some of these games may not be as extensive as it is in manufacturing and then because there are many workers who are not covered by regular employment relationships we have casual workers. We have other unprotected workers. It's really also critical to see what other support can come in the form of social protection for women but also in household in general and it's also critical to reduce the burden on women. Because in this situation the extra burden is there in any case is being exacerbated during these time so you know support on paid care leave sick leave that is needed and we see of course in advanced economies but these extra measures are needed. All economies to ensure that workers self-employed women etc. Have that type of support during this

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