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Joe through a rough patch: Bidens super Tuesday


This campaign sent down trump packing yesterday. Super Tuesday former Vice President. Joe Biden captured a clutch of states on the way to the nomination. The Democrats presidential candidate voters in Texas echoed. The view that Mr Biden presents a decent of reliable candidate in I've known so much about him for so long and he's a man of honor integrity and I think he will be excellent Senator Bernie. Sanders won his home. State of Vermont looks to be ahead in California for all the talk in the party that he would be a perilous pick plenty like his politics. I voted for Berry because he wants to get better rights. Everyone and then free healthcare but after a surge in South Carolina at a super Tuesday showing early promise of Mr Biden's campaign seems to have returned. Joe Has unbelievable sense of the understands people and he's been there and I trust them and it's why voted for him. Joe Biden had a very good night ethnic relative to expectations. And that's what matters most John. Prideaux is economists. Us Senator Bernie Sanders his two one. California which is the most delegate rich state but Biden did really well in other states including Texas which he wasn't projected to win a new few weeks ago. His campaign was being written off as being so dead and buried and people are encouraging him to drop out he now looks suddenly very competitive with Bernie Sanders and maybe even the likeliest nominees the Democratic Party. And how do you think it is that he managed that comeback? I think this result is a surprise. Joe Biden did well in South Carolina. Better even than people are expecting he was top of the polls there for a while but he really beat Bernie Sanders by a long way and this is a terribly cliche overused word. In presidential horse. Race Commentary Jason. But he's carried that momentum into Super Tuesday and done really well and it now looks like a prostitute horse race between him and Barney Saunders and what kind of nightmare standard have well. He didn't exactly have a bad night in the sense that he won. California the most delegate rich state he's done well in Colorado Utah. Put Tonight I tell you with absolute competence. We're going to win the Democratic nomination. I think relative to expectations having won the first few contests in the primary. It's not a very good performance for him if you look at his delegate numbers it looks like at the end of the night. He won't be miles behind Joe Biden but his campaign have been hoping that Super Tuesday would have put him so far ahead that he'd be the presumptive nominee and that hasn't happened. What about all the other horses in the race though well a couple of the horses dropped out before Super Tuesday? Both Pete. Beauty Judge Amy Klobuchar rivals for the moderate slug of Democratic voters dropped and endorsed Joe Biden before these primaries. That appears to help. Joe Biden a good deal. And how do you see that narrowing going forward well? Especially we'll be within Mike Bloomberg stays in. He said he would no matter. How many delegates we win tonight? We have done something. No one else thought was possible in just three months. We've gone from one percent of the polls to being a contender for the Democratic nomination for box. I think his performance was so poor that I'm not sure. He has much of a case to stay. Despite spending about half a billion dollars in advertising he did win American Samoa. That's not a great prize in the Democratic primary. If he works dropout I expect that would help Biden again. And what would really help? Biden is if at Mike Bloomberg puts his political funding his political machine that he's assembled very quickly behind Joe Biden both in the primary and then in the general election. What about Elizabeth Warren? Though you haven't mentioned her I didn't mention have for good reason Jason. She hasn't won a single state. That is a surprise. There are plenty of good things about her candidacy. She's rather skillful politicians. She has lots and lots of detail. Policies which is either a good thing or a handicap depending on your point of view and it looked like she might be just left wing enough to excite the party whilst being centrist enough not to scare to many people but she really hasn't done well she seems to have been another victim of this overcrowded. Primary She's also saying that she'll stay in the race. So here's my advice. Cast a vote. That will make you proud. Cast a vote from your heart and vote for the person you think. We'll make the best president of the United States but it's hard to see much point in her doing so particularly after she lost her home state in Massachusetts so once again in this election cycle the talk in early stages was just how broad The field was and now it's been narrowed down to to Washington heavyweights who've been in politics forever. How do you suppose that's happened from all that? Talk of of change and younger faces and diversity down to kind of a bit of the same old yeah. This is a very odd feature the Democratic primary isn't it? I mean if the two candidates are Biden and Saunders and one of will face Donald Trump in November donald trump will be the youngest candidate that race and the choice will be between three white males in their seventies. That's quite surprising. Given where the Democratic Party field started out and I think the main reason for that is just. There was so many candidates in the race. Jason that quite a lot of potentially rather good candidates got knocked out early on weren't able to pick up enough momentum when able to get any purchase in early primaries so I think that's really the reason why we've ended up with these. Two very familiar figures that both of them started with a bit of an advantage in that they had to some extent a group of loyal voters. They're really only candidates in the race. Who are in that position and in such a crowded field. That's quite a good place to start. And so is what we're seeing here. Kind of coalescing of the fear about Bernie Sanders and the degree to which. He's he's just kind of two out to too far out to to the left. The idea here. Is that Mr Biden is is the safer bet. D Do you agree with that assessment? It certainly looks that way to me. I mean I thought that it would be certainly a risk for the Democrats to run Bernie Sanders against president trump. If you asked Democratic voters they say their number one thing is that they want a candidate who can beat Donald Trump but then that opens up a whole argument about well what kind of candidate can beat Donald Trump and. There's one theory that you need to take on kind of firebrand and a fellow populist like Bernie Sanders. Different kind of populist. And there's another school of thought says. Actually you need to play it safe and Joe Biden is the ultimate sort of play. It safe candidacy. He's not terribly exciting as a candidate but looking at the numbers are lots of analysts thought that he had perhaps the best chance of beating Donald Trump so it looks like the alarm about his candidacy that it just might be taking a huge risk in. What's a very consequential? Election seems to translated into poor results him on Super Tuesday. So as you say we're entering a period where it's essentially a two horse race. Do you have a sense now? That things are crystallizing. A bit how it might go from here. I think one thing we can certainly say is the voters have a habit of confounding the predictions of pundit. There's still quite a long way to run in this thing and room for further slip up so I'd be reluctant to say Candida. Xl definitely be the nominee. That said it's still. It's quite likely that the Democrats will end up with a contested convention in July. And I say that if you look at remaining states is Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden. Probably need to pick up maybe sixty percents of the remaining delegates. That's a high proportion and if I the Santus. All Biden fails to do that. The Democrats end up with a contested convention. So that's still looks like it's a fairly likely outcome. And so what are the things to watch as more primaries play out I think the things to watch our does Michael Bloomberg stand the race if he gets out how does that affect is Bernie? Sanders is Joe Biden. Able to build up such a commanding lead that they can win this thing. Outright get a majority of delegates before the convention or whether we'll end up with contested convention in which case people are going to start to get very interested in the intricacies and the rules of contested conventions. That's something we discussed on checks and balances on the economists other podcasts recently

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