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US grinds to a halt as Americans lock down to stop the spread of coronavirus

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Coronaviruses freaking everybody out well in corona virus news the British health minister and conservative member of parliament parliament Nadine Dorries has been diagnosed with corona virus now so the health minister of Great Britain has coronavirus mystery says she's been self isolating at home labour MP Rachel Maskell said she's been told to do the same **** met mysteries that apartment health in Britain said mysteries first showed symptoms on Thursday the same day she attended an event hosted by the prime minister right now U. K. had a documented total of three hundred eighty two cases as of yesterday six people with the virus have died in the U. K. in the United States the total number of cases now has surpassed one thousand cases in the United States we have twenty nine deaths so far the the clusters are happening on the coast mainly in Massachusetts New York Santa Clara California and up in Seattle Washington the first known US front of Irish cases announced January twenty first in Washington state the pace of diagnosis has quickened significantly in recent weeks at the start of the month seventy cases have been reported in this country most of them tied to overseas travel since then new cases have been pouring in by the dozens and then by the hundreds the coronavirus updates are coming fast and furious the mayor of New York bill de Blasio he said that there are lots of cases coming in at like dozens per day in New York City as testing is made available it is obvious that there are a lot of people who are least carrying corona virus without knowing that they are carrying corona virus or the the German public has now been warmed up to seventy percent of Germans face the possibility of infection that's going to Angola Merkel and of course the top US health official Dr Dr Anthony Fauci he said this is going to get worse so Dr Fauci said all hands are basically on track with this thing these are really simple keep the workplace safe keeping the home safe keeping the schools safe and keeping commercial establishing safe this should be universal for the country everyone should be doing that where do you live in his own that as communities spread or not when you have community spread you obviously going to ratchet up the kinds of medications that you have but at a minimum this is the minimum that we should be doing so everybody should say all hands on deck this is what we need to do in a non shocking news thanks to again the up and down of the corona virus news the stock market in creamed again it's just up and down insanely was up like a thousand points and then is dumped again back down a thousand points pretty amazing how the stock market is bouncing around like a yo yo no we're not gonna know honestly where anything stands until the end of April Megan McArdle has an interesting column over the Washington post a lot of people might really like everyone is looking around going I don't see a lot of car owners out there yeah we had a grand total of like four thousand deaths worldwide if you look at the flu every year and kills like a hundred thousand people worldwide minimum maybe hundreds of thousands of people worldwide every year so why are we also worried about coronavirus Megan McArdle has this statistical dot experiment to remind you that when there's an exponential growth factor things move really quickly right you don't see anything in the C. everything right it let let's say you have a pond with lily pads example that you get statistically and it explains why were also worried today if you have a pond with lily pads and the lily pads are going to overtake the pond as they grow in each day the lily pads double the number of lily pads double so let's say that day one it's one to which to death rates for right to keep stumbling on the very last day the lily pads cover the entire pond the question is at what point did lily pads cover half the pond at what point it really has got a half upon and the answer is the day before they cover the entire contract if they're doubling every day and that means that half the town was covered yesterday and today boom suddenly the entire pond is covered that is how exponential growth works okay that is what people are feeling in terms of coronavirus is that we have exponential growth of coronavirus what you end up with is no one around me has it oops everyone I think that's it right that that that is what people are fearing is that sudden is that sudden object and this is what is being feared by the trump former homeland security adviser Tom Bossert he says hospitals are basically ten days away from being creamed he suggested in an op ed that we are we are in trouble in terms of our our hospital facilities as officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions said aggressive internet interventions put off and ease the burden on hospitals and other healthcare infrastructure and that of course is true as one of my wrists wells then the hospitals that need to be prepared as I already said mayor bill de Blasio said that things are happening intensely in New York City and the governor Jay Inslee has no restricted gathers more than two hundred and fifty people in king county as well as several as well as you know how much and Pierce counties which are the the biggest counties in Washington state that means no soccer games means no it means no baseball games it means that basically all major gatherings ought to be canceled according to Jay Inslee the governor of Washington state Dr foundry has suggested there be no crowds at NBA games so basically if you have tickets for opening day in the United States for baseball you can fairly bank that that is not going to happen why colleges are canceling events I would not be surprised if my college events this semester for example are canceled that would not be a great shock again I think that all of this makes a certain amount of sense like better caution and they have this viral outbreak you want to reduce the size of the the spread and the and the quickness of the spread is to give us time right now we're bargaining for time but we don't know what the death rates are on this thing we just don't and what that means is that every attempt to slow the spread of the virus buys a day for people to develop vaccines they're going to be more effective in slowing or stopping the spread of the virus of becomes just another seasonal problem instead of becoming an overwhelming threat to western populations so this is it it is in this light it is important to recognize that when the federal government fails along this along these lines you can be absolutely disastrous there's a a piece from The New York Times that is just devastating talking about how the federal government did in fact blow the month the president trump was a president trump said very early on we're shutting down travel from China and a lot of people unless I'm not this is racist on this is terrible ten people were saying you have virus when buyers is racist you can see when my wrist is a drum said no we're sitting down travel that was a very good thing it was a very smart thing was the right thing to do the problem is that only buys you time because it turns out that some people are going to get in and any other problem so what did the federal government do with a month and president trump bought them by shutting down travel from from when the answers basically nothing according to Dr Helen chew infectious disease expert in Seattle she knew the United States and not have much time in late January the first confirmed American case of coronavirus have landed in her area critical questions need answers have been infected anyone else according to The New York Times was the deadly virus already working in other communities and spreading as luck would have a doctor to have a way to monitor the region for months as part of a regional research project into the flu she and a team of researchers have been collecting nasal swabs residents experiencing symptoms throughout the Puget Sound region three purpose the test for monitoring coronavirus they would need the support of state and federal officials but nearly everywhere Dr Jew turned officials repeatedly rejected the idea interviews and emails show even as weeks called by an average margin countries outside of China where the infection begin by February twenty fifth Dr Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer they began performing coronavirus test without government approval but came back in from the worst fear they quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history the corona virus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it Dr she recalled thinking it must've been here this entire time is just everywhere already in fact officials later discovered through testing the virus had already contributed to the deaths of two people guns killed twenty more in the Seattle region over the following days federal and state officials said the flu study could not be repurposed because it didn't have explicit permission from research subjects labs are also not certified for clinical work well now Jeannie affable questions doctor should others argue there should be more flexibility in an emergency very much so many lives could be lost this is correct I mean like if you give permission for somebody to do a nasal swab for flow and that is repurposed enables one for coronavirus I honestly fail to see how any reasonable person would consider that a violation of privacy I nobody must know that I had grown up at night they're not gonna release your specific rotavirus task it just allows the state to do something on Monday night state regulators told them to stop testing altogether the failure to tap into the flu study detailed here for the first time was just one in a series of missed chances by the federal government to ensure more widespread testing during the early days of the outbreak when containment would've been easier instead local officials across the country were left to work in the dark as the crisis go undetected exponentially now so I think this is from so now I don't I don't think trump is monitoring local level task I think this is the fault of the massive regulatory bureaucracy that prevents people from doing reasonable things it turns out that the federal government well it is well placed to issue brought national guidelines is not well placed to deal with local testing that has to be done it turns out the local communities maybe the the fastest to react to the sort of thing right voluntary shut downs right now happening across the country with regard to major public events and those are happening on the local and state level without the federal government even doing anything it turns out the people who see federalism is the obstacle to this sort of thing they're doing it wrong local and state officials are more answerable to local populations and are in fact more likely to request the people do responsible things in fact is that porn was yesterday in the in the Jewish community basically every pore institute that I've heard of in my area meaning every big poor meal with big gatherings lots of kids those were basically shut down voluntarily without any guidance from the federal state or local officials is so the notion that the federal government needs to be running this thing in extraordinarily top down fashion the federal government should be coordinating all the officials letting them know sort of the minimum of what they expect but standing in the way of local officials doing what they need to do to Tampa's thing down is a completely different thing and that is a testament to the stupidity of bureaucracy generally

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