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COVID-19 Escalates but Biotech Bright Spot in Trillium Therapeutics



So again. I'm glad to be back and appreciate everybody's attention today. And we have an extensive show ahead of us so I'm going to talk about a variety of different things. I WANNA touch on some latest biotech news a menu to talk about the vijen earnings report that. I said I would get to so. There's a few interesting tidbits. There have to talk about the covert nineteen story because that's been really blowing up and I think there are significant implications for the market. And then I'm GONNA finish up by talking about the latest in the anti CD. Forty seven technologies and specifically. I'm going to focus on trillion but also gonNA touch on T. G. Therapeutics so at that. Let's just get right into it. And the first piece of news I had to mention. Is that a sperry on recently. Heard News that they're two compounds. Were approved by the FDA. The one is just the paddock acid pill which they've named it next next little and the dog acid is it. Ahmad Combo pill was also approve. Called next Zet so good news for them. They finally breached the finish. Line are GONNA be able to sell these products. The stock did KINDA BUMP UP AFTER. This news came out but then with all the News Cove Nineteen. The stock did sell off. And I think it's hanging around fifty bucks I still have ten shares. Probably GonNA sell relatively soon just to you know take the prophets and look for more opportunities that have larger chance of bringing a return on my investment but great news for them. The next piece of news I want to talk about is and we heard that they are exploring a potential buyer according to Bloomberg. We haven't heard too much confirmation since then but in the past week we've seen the stock runup quite significantly and it looks like there's a good chance that somebody could pick them up. I'm still holding only about ten shares unfortunately but I'm probably going to sell them just because I feel like we've heard a lot of these rumors once in a while. And often times they don't come to fruition Annan. Pretty happy with the Prophet made so far and given it's only ten shares. I think I might again sell these enda and look for other opportunities. That are coming around the next piece of news. I want to talk about his ammon. And they have been all over the place lately We heard that they released some post trial documents. Because they're undergoing this litigation right now to maintain exclusivity for their patents and you. I kind of glanced at them. I don't really know what to make of them. We're still waiting for a judgement to come down and we'll see that. Relatively soon I think and negativity around the stock. I think is going to be uplifted once that goes through. And we should see a return. All-time highs I've been adding the stock as it's been down and it's pretty heavy in my portfolio now so. I still think that they're goodbye here. The next piece of news on touch on is the latest from the American Society of Retina specialists. And this is because I have touched on wet. Amd in previous videos by interested in this space and they announced that Bayview patients and this is the drug for wet amd that was recently approved by Novartis and this a s R s society issued a warning about fourteen cases of retinal vascular disease with eleven of those being occlusive retinal vascular. Now this can be actually pretty serious condition. That can lead to permanent blindness. So it's It's fair for the society to to issue a warning to people who are considering this therapy especially given that. There are other therapies. That don't have this risk that have been approved in in circulation for awhile now. Nevada stands by view. And they said that. There's been an estimated. Forty six thousand injections done a bill view so far and they did not see that this happened in their phase three trials they did mention there were sixteen cases of ubiquitous and nine cases of Iras. But they still stand by their own compound and they're saying that they're doing post market surveillance to see that's going to be a problem but When this news came out we saw that Novartis Kinda dipped and regeneration stock increase quite a bit just in the expectation that more people are gonNA stick with Lia which is the drug that was approved. That's been approved for a lot longer than bayview and there are more frequent injections. But it's obviously more safe. So all of this could be prevented if re-genesis BIOS drug there gene. Therapy for wet. Amd can hit the market and then patients would only really need one injection hopefully to To prevent Amdi from happening. So that's kind of an interesting thing going on with the amd space so to hit the major stories that I want to talk about today though. We're GONNA talk about biogen. The cove in nineteen esscalation. And then I have here. That Gilead announced that they're going to buy the company named forty-seven for four point. Nine billion dollars and this is worth mentioning because the company talking about which is trillium also has an anti CD forty seven antibody in hopes of using it for hematological malignancies but also potential in solid tumors. So we're GonNa talk about that as the feature story but first thing. I want to talk about his budget so I went through the earnings report and I have touched on by. Jin on a number of different occasions in this podcast. And I think it's a really interesting company being in that kind of mid to large cap space what they announced that their revenue went up seven percent year over year. And amongst all of that the MS franchise was actually down four percent year over year. But what they did is they included cruise. Which is an anti CD. Twenty compound but it's also used to treat ms so they included that in the press release to make the overall year over year revenue increase by two percent. And I think they did this. Because the franchise itself up sixty percent of by toll revenue so to show that that franchise is actually increasing has kind of beneficial from a PR standpoint. They also announced that verity was approved for relapsing. Ms And we did hear that last year. Visionary is similar detector but it has fewer Gi side effects so this was approved it was shown to be non inferior to tech Videira so this is just adding to its. Ms Franchise is going to be continuing to prevail in being a large revenue generator. For by. John. I believe we also saw and I mentioned this last time that the Texas air decision was positive for biogen. So that compound is can also be protected. Biden's going to maintain its exclusivity. So that's good news for that. I don't see the franchise decreasing substantially. It's probably only going to increase with the vulgarity. Approval there are competitors coming on the space but given that by agendas so many MS compounds right now. That are pretty effective. I think it's going to be a continual driver of revenue for the company now in terms of the upcoming revenue generator spin. Rosza is is one of those that's done in the market for. I think almost a year now and revenue increased nine point three percent year over year which is great and this franchise makes up fifteen percent of total biogen revenue so that has increased over the past few quarters. I think as I as I looked at this and they did mention here that we expect the rate at which spinner is a revenues will grow will moderate in twenty twenty compared to twenty nineteen primarily due to a lower rate of new patients starts combined with the impact of loading does dynamics as patients transition from dosing every four months so the way the payment system works for. Spin Rosza is that it costs seven hundred fifty thousand for the first year and then subsequent loading years just cost three hundred seventy five thousand Subsequently so we see this big boost in revenue. When there's a lot of new patients starts and then it Kinda tapers off as patients or just getting that loading dose. So I think that's why they're saying that. Revenues will moderate because the amount of new patient starts is actually decrease and I think this is due to vexes. Launch of excess Novartis is launch of their own therapy for spinal muscular atrophy. So I think as that competition continues the amount of revenue that's generated by spin. Raza is GonNa flat now and patients who likes Raza will probably stay on it but I think that that increased competition. It's still going to harm the new patient start so I don't see this space necessarily increasing too much now. Other things to consider is the repurchase program and this boost the stock price pretty substantially in the last year they repurchased twenty four million shares and that was a cost of five point nine billion dollars and by my calculation that means in the current repurchase program they have about twelve million shares to continue to buy and their net. Cash is still three point. Five billion dollars so they have a lot of cash on hand to buy current shares that are outstanding which is only going to support the price of the Stock. Moving forward another thing. They announced is the commercialization rights to idea as well as loose cintas. So going back to what I said about the wet. Amd space these two compounds are the current kind of establish treatment for wet amd with view just recently being added the size of the market for I league in Los Angeles is eleven billion dollars but these are going to be biosimilars and as we know. Biosimilars don't generate nearly as much money as the actual panel drug the current by similar. That biogen has day only make about one tenth of the revenue of the panel

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