Economists See Increasing Possibility of a Recession


Start first with this kind of schizophrenic market. I mean, I think that's the best way to describe it, right? This is like a form of schizophrenia here because the markets are suddenly higher despite a lot of the bearish signals that we've seen and both from tech companies and their earnings. You've seen bank reports, Deutsche Bank, recent one this week coming out warning of a major recession. We got the GDP report today, showing that the U.S. economy declined by 1.4%. And as I said, you get two quarters of that, and that is the definition of recession, two quarters of consecutive losses in growth, negative growth. But people seem encouraged and part of that reason may be maybe that they're thinking, well, the fed really can't do what it wants to do, right? I mean, the fed is not really going to be able to raise rates the way perhaps it had hoped in light of the negative numbers on GDP. It's also possible that they're looking at some of the consumer spending numbers and saying, well, you know, consumers seem to be holding up, okay? So maybe we'll get through this. I will say this, if Jerome Powell can pull this off, if we can avoid a recession, then he will go down as the greatest fed magician in history.

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