A highlight from 1387: One Bitcoin Will Be Worth $1 Billion By This Date - Fidelity


Let's get it. In today's show, I'll be breaking down the latest technical analysis, as well as breaking news. Google Cloud to digitize El Salvador's governance, healthcare, and education, as well as Elon Musk's ex moves closer to crypto payments with their newest state license they just received, as well as breaking news. The SEC's first deadlines to approve seven Bitcoin ETFs are coming over the next week. We'll also be discussing Grayscale's roadmap to a Bitcoin spot ETF following the most recent SEC triumph, as well as Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset managers that currently control over four and a half trillion in assets under management are predicting a $1 billion price action for each Bitcoin. In fact, did you know they started accumulating Bitcoin all the way back in 2014, literally almost a decade ago? We'll also be taking a look at overall crypto market, all this plus so much more in today's show. 87. That's right. I'm your host JV. And we have a jam -packed session for you today. Looking at the market watch here, we can see Bitcoin after almost staying above 28 ,000. Unfortunately, it broke that support and we're back down to 27 ,200 at this time, but Ether also back in the red down 2 % for the day trading at just above $1 ,700. And checking out coinmarketcap .com, we're barely sitting above a trillion dollars, which is that milestone we've been sitting at for quite some time regarding the overall crypto market and about 34 billion in volume in the past 24 hours with the Bitcoin dominance at 48 .9 % with the Ether dominance at 18 .9%. And checking out the top 100 crypto gainers of the past 24 hours, we have XDC up 8 % trading at 6 .4 cents, followed by TonCoin up 6 % trading at $1 .75, followed by BlockStax up almost 3 % trading just under 53 cents and checking out the top 100 crypto gainers for the past week. Yesterday was a sea of green as the price action pumped literally $2 ,000 in a span of 30 minutes off of the news of the SEC losing their trial versus grayscale with the conversion of the GBTC product into a spot ETF. But today we have corrected some with HEXB crypto greed and fear index. We're currently rated a 49, which is neutral. Yesterday was a 39 in fear last week at 37 and last month a 50, which is neutral. So there you have it. How many of you are currently bullish on the king crypto? Let me know. And how many of you are anticipating a lower price action so you can keep stacking them sats on the low? Holla at your boy. Now let's break down today's Bitcoin technical analysis. Check out the charts and what is popping right now in the markets. As you can see here, Bitcoin drifted towards $27 ,000, which again, we're just sitting above $27 ,200 at the time of this recording. At the Wall Street open, the dust settled on the digital asset manager, grayscale's legal victory. Here you're looking at the Bitcoin one hour candle chart. Now data from Cointelegraph showed a positive verdict for grayscale against US regulators, sparking almost 8 % gains. Bitcoin managed to tap $28 ,100 on Bitstamp, its highest in almost two weeks, before returning to the current level. So despite closing the daily candle above two key moving averages, these had yet to return as definitive intraday support. And on the day, analysts were quite cautious. In a quick take post from on -chain analyst Crypto Quant, he goes on to share, noting that the grayscale move had originated on derivative exchanges. So despite funding rates remaining fairly neutral, there was a clear absence of value. However, it is difficult to see that the spot exchange led the price increase when the Bitcoin price rose yesterday. The reason is that the trading volume ratio shows that it had decrease rather than increase. Now additional data showed trading volumes were still below those seen during the upticks of earlier this year, quoting them here. Of course, there is a tendency for prices to change significantly, even with small trading volumes, because of the overall liquidity in the crypto market, which has decreased. However, it seems that there is a need to be a little cautious about the fact that this rally leads to a dramatic rally. Now let's discuss many similarities to Bitcoin's all -time high. According to crypto analyst Brett Capital, quoting him here, we're seeing many similarities between the double top of 2021 and what we're seeing right now, he warned. Should the similarities play out and Bitcoin produce a full fractal, 26 ,000 would flip from support to resistance to initiate further downside. So for the time being, we're seeing a lot of signs really playing into all of this in which he reiterated alongside this chart. Now, another target analysts are talking about right now is 23 ,000 becoming increasingly important. Rec capital likewise flagged that level of 23K as a prominent level versus the 2022 bear market bottom structure and inverse head and shoulders pattern, as he mentioned here, that's the level that we can see the price rebound from. So there you have it. Let me know if you feel we're likely to drop sub 25 ,000, potentially touch 23 before rising back up. Or do you think we'll take off from here, off of one of the biggest news stories of the year, which is a big fat L for the SEC and a big fat victory for the entire crypto industry. Let me know your thoughts. And with that being shared, fam, now let's discuss breaking news coming out of El Salvador with Google, which is actually quite interesting. Yesterday, I saw Nigel Bokele made a tweet and this is what it was in regards to Google Cloud announced a new partnership with the government of El Salvador. Interesting, right? On August 29th to establish an office and provide Google distributed cloud services in their country, the partnership aims to digitize the country, update government services and improve the healthcare and educational systems. The GDC will also help bring infrastructure closer to where data is generated for El Salvador. Bokele, the country's president said he believes El Salvador is quickly becoming a hub for innovation. As he shares here, El Salvador is moving forward. We believe technology and foreign investment are key for development. And here's where he announced the partnership in this, I shouldn't say tweet anymore, but on this post on X quoting Bokele, Google plans to establish operations in El Salvador and he shared the official press release from Google. Now, Thomas Curain, the CEO of Google Cloud said he believes cloud computing can truly transform Latin America. As shared here, access to cloud computing has dramatically expanded across industries and regions throughout the world, he said, enabling both small companies and the public sector to utilize the very same apps and services as more mature markets. Now, Cointelegraph also reached out to Google Cloud for additional comments on its recent expansion. The additional GDC infrastructure will help support El Salvador's active stance on Bitcoin adoption and integration into society. It allows for Bitcoin full nodes with ordinal protocol support. And additionally, back on August 8th, a few weeks ago, El Salvador granted the crypto exchange Binance a license to offer crypto services to users in the country. Bitcoin had began as legal tender in El Salvador back in 2021. And recently the Bitcoin Beach Initiative took to the classroom and taught over 25 ,000 students about Bitcoin, helping them earn a Bitcoin diploma via the country's educational system. The country has already seen immediate returns on the program with the example of one teenager who earned the diploma and then returned to his former school to teach the educators about the digital asset. That's what's up. I think mass adoption is likely to continue, especially in places like El Salvador that are ahead of the rest of the world. And I think more and more major companies are going to be opening up shop because it just makes so much sense. Why wouldn't they? That's why Binance just got their license. Jack Mallers Strike Company just got their license. Bitfinex got their license and they're opening up shop. And I believe that the Bitcoin game theory is in full effect and will continue to play out as the days go by. And with that being shared, fam, now let's break down our next story of the day. As you probably know, major news was actually released yesterday regarding X, which is the platform owned by Elon Musk to integrate crypto payments. We made a pretty big development, so let's break this down before we dissect the ETF deadlines. Rhode Island's regulators have granted X, formerly known as Twitter, a currency transmitter license, marking a step forward for the company's foray into the financial services sector. The license is legally required for companies conducting financial activities on behalf of users related to sending and receiving money, a definition that includes both fiat as well as crypto assets. Now, this approval will allow for X to custody, transfer and exchange digital currencies. Now, X's Rhode Island currency transmitter license was approved on August 28th, two days ago, according to the nationwide multi -state licensing system, NMLS. The move marks an important step forward for Elon's push for X to become an everything app, which would include crypto as well as fiat payments. Now, naturally, social networks like X are massive, so this could help usher in that mass adoption. Now, while sources have suggested that X's upcoming payments feature will initially only offer support for fiat currencies, Elon had reportedly instructed developers at X to build the platform's payment system in such a way that crypto functionality can be added into the future. Yeah, if you're not integrating Bitcoin into your payment system, then do you even have a payment system for the future as Bitcoin is the future of money? Just saying. The approval comes nearly two months after X secured money transmitter licenses, also in Michigan, Missouri, and New Hampshire, which were well -approved on July 5th. X's latest license marks a total of seven American states it secured transmitter licenses in, so my guess is they're going to have to continue getting more and more licenses for all the states. It remains unclear exactly what financial offerings will be made available if and when X rolls out their payments feature. People familiar with the company's plans have indicated that X will initially offer fiat currency transaction services similar to PayPal, which Musk co -founded with room for future crypto integration. Do you think Bitcoin will likely be an announcement that they will be accepting crypto payments? I mean, who cares about Doge if you don't have Bitcoin integrated? So, I feel Bitcoin is a given if they're going to be integrating crypto and it seems to be going that way. But how do you feel this is likely to play out? Let me know your honest thoughts in the comments right down below. And now let's break down everything you need to know regarding the recent spot ETF deadlines for the United States and regulators. And after we discuss all these deadlines, we're going to specifically be talking about the GBTC Grayscale product, getting that victory over the SEC and what that means moving forward with the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF. And then we'll be dissecting Fidelity, one of the largest asset managers in the world, and their $1 billion Bitcoin price prediction. And then we'll wrap up with our live Q &A. So yeah, let's discuss this. The US SEC is facing its first deadlines to decide on seven spot Bitcoin ETF apps, with the latest being September 4th, which is what, virtually five days away amid its defeat to Grayscale Investments in the US Federal Appeals Court. Investment firm Bitwise will learn if its ETF will win the SEC's approval September 1st, which is what, two days away. While BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, and WisdomTree will all be awaiting the SEC's decision for their funds by September 2nd, three days away, according to several SEC filings. So, that's right around the corner. It's going to be a big week. Meanwhile, Valkyrie is set to hear back from the SEC on September 4th. The US Court of Appeals ruled on August 29th that the SEC's rejection of Grayscale's app to convert their GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF was arbitrary and capricious. But this doesn't mean that the SEC must approve Grayscale's app or others in the future, says Bloomberg ETF analyst, James Safart. And in August 29th Bloomberg Review, he explained that Grayscale's win will definitely increase the odds of a successful outcome for the SEC. But he is unsure when that day may come though, as the SEC can delay his decisions and has two more proposed deadlines for each fund before being forced to make a final decision on the 240th day post filing. Now, what a shame it would be if they make us wait the 240th final day before giving an answer. But hey, don't run it by them. I mean, don't put it past them, especially with Mr. No Clarity Gary as the chairman. But anyways, for the awaiting applicants, the final deadlines for the SEC are all in mid -March of next year. And as someone shared here, odd and free, 99 .9999 % chance that the world doesn't know that the SEC has to decide on seven Bitcoin ETFs within the next three days. And this does include the largest asset manager in the world, BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Investico, Fidelity, and Valkyrie. The suits are at our doorstep per each. And how many of you weren't aware of that, that the decision within the next seven days is going to be on those seven major asset managers. Now, after the August 29th ruling in favor of Grayscale, the regulators have 90 days to file an appeal with the US Supreme Court or apply for an en banc review where the full circuit court can overturn a ruling made by a three judge panel. However, the SEC hasn't made clear what the next move will be. If the SEC doesn't appeal, the court will need to specify how its ruling is executed, which could include instructing the SEC to approve Grayscale's app or at the very least revisit it. But either way, Safer only saw two viable options for the regulator. The first option is to concede defeat and approve Grayscale's conversion of its GBTC as a Bitcoin spot ETF. But alternatively, the SEC would need to revoke the listing of Bitcoin futures ETFs entirely or deny Grayscale's app based on a new argument, says Safer, quoting him here, the second potential avenue is to deny on reasons not used before yet, which I have been saying for months could have to do with custody or settlements of Bitcoin, which is not something that futures ETFs have to worry about. The SEC has made a lot of noise around custodians. However, fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst, Eric Balchunes, considered the odds of the SEC revoked in the Bitcoin futures ETFs as highly unlikely because of the SEC reported openness to Ethereum futures ETFs, in which he makes a great point, quoting Eric here. This guy turned the last paragraph of Judge Rao's legal smackdown today into a MGMTS stylish banger, really captures the modern. Well done. Well, so there you have it. I guess this is some song I haven't even listened to yet. So I'll jam to it a little later on. We'll see if it's any good. But anyways, fam, how do you think this is likely to play out by the SEC? Do you think they're likely to approve any of these seven ETFs or do you think they'll just continue to push it back until next year? Let me know your honest thoughts in the comments right down below. Now let's dive deeper with the latest breaking news regarding the grayscale ETF and their conversion of their product into a spot ETF. And did you know that their product literally has over 600 ,000 BTC? Hence, they'd be the perfect candidate for a spot Bitcoin ETF because they already hold the underlying asset. They don't need to purchase it. So I mean, they'd be a prime candidate along with BlackRock. Which one will get approval first is the million dollar question, but let's break it down. In a seismic shift for the Bitcoin industry, the DC Circuit Court ruled in favor of grayscale investments yesterday, which is breaking news, which we've been hearing all across social media. Now, Jake Stravinsky, the chief policy officer at Blockchain Association, described the ruling as massive, emphasizing it's extremely rare for a federal circuit court to find an agency like the SEC in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act. Stravinsky stated that the DC Circuit soundly rejected the SEC's view that grayscale's ETF proposal was not designed to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices. So good for them. He also pointed out that the court did not order the SEC to approve the proposal, but rather mandated a review of grayscale's proposal with the court's ruling in mind. Stravinsky speculated on two possible scenarios for the SEC's next steps. One theory suggests the SEC could find another reason to include no clarity Gary towards crypto. And alternatively, the SEC might take this as a semi graceful exit from their anti ETF stance, especially under political pressure from traditional finance sectors ready for a Bitcoin ETF as we are long overdue. They first rejected the first Bitcoin ETF for a spot in the United States over a decade ago. And the app was from the Winklevoss twins with Gemini, just FYI. Now, many other issuers have proposed ETFs this year, include BlackRock and Larry Fink throws heavy punches in DC. Therefore, here's what the lawyer thinks. The only question is if the SEC wants to make this more painful for itself. Trust me, if there is another denial, there'll be another lawsuit. I strongly recommend that the SEC picks sooner. Let's see. Now, James Safart, the ETF analyst over at Bloomberg, corroborated the significance of the ruling stating it's a complete and utter rebuke of the SEC spot Bitcoin ETF denial orders. And quoting him here, I was initially thinking something like a deadline of 45 days or 60 days, but nothing in here saying that. However, he noted that the SEC has 45 days to file for that en banc hearing, which would involve all 17 judges on the court, good Lord, as opposed to the initial subset panel of only three judges. The Bloomberg analysts also outlined two main motions for the SEC. If they still wish to prevent the spot Bitcoin ETFs from listing, they either need to revoke the listing of Bitcoin futures ETFs or denied based on new reasons, possibly related to custodial or settlement issues, which have been a focal point for the SEC staff accounting bulletin 121. Now, Adam Cochran, partner of CEHV added another layer to the timeline speculation. He alludes to the SEC's pending decision on six other Bitcoins spot ETF filings due by September 1st for Bitwise and September 2nd for BlackRock, Fidelity and others. Here's what he had to share. Some folks are getting ahead of themselves thinking that grayscale decisions means bulk approval of ETFs by this Friday. Likely not the case. My hunches were looking at a late October, November timeline for an approval still, unless the SEC appeals in which case next spring. Now I'm not a gambling man, but if I was a gambling man, I just want to throw out there. I don't think the SEC has any intention to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States anytime soon because their actions demonstrate the complete opposite. The only thing they have interest in approving are more futures ETFs so they can continue to manipulate the markets through derivatives, which are financial weapons of mass destruction. Quoting Warren Buffett, it is what it is, but nonetheless, this is still a victory overall because they could only push it back for so long. And especially with BlackRock demanding, I shouldn't say demanding, but in so many words, they're the one that started this domino effect with new ETF apps arising with the SEC. They are the largest asset manager in the world, controlling over $10 trillion in assets under management. So I think if Larry Fink wants something, it's going to get done. But the million dollar question becomes when? I think they're going to push it back this year and probably spring next year, we're going to finally start to see the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. And as soon as we get that approval, that can help usher in literally trillions upon trillions of dollars that are currently sitting on the sidelines directly in to the best crypto asset in the world, which is none other than BTC. If you'd love to see that happen, let me know. And by what date or deadline do you think we're likely to get that first approval? And you already know once that approval comes, money is going to start ushering in and the Bitcoin price is going to go parabolic and in perfect time because we also have another major bullish catalyst around the corner. Six months out, the scheduled halving is estimated to be sometime in April of 2024. So between the ETF apps being approved by the United States regulators and the Bitcoin halving, I couldn't be more bullish on Bitcoin right now, which leads us to our next story of the day, which is going to be a $1 billion prediction from one of the largest asset managers in the world, which is Fidelity. Let's break this down. Then we'll dive into our live Q &A. Make sure to say hello in the live chat. Let me know where you're tuning in from. A massive shout out to everyone interacting. I greatly appreciate all the continued support. So here we go. $1 billion. That's a lot of zeros. That is nine to be exact. In 2021, a billion dollars seems like a lot of money. FYI, Fidelity initially made this prediction in 2021. I also want to point out here from some tweets, Fidelity head of sales, quoting them here, we started mining and accumulating Bitcoin all the way back in 2014. I bet you a lot of you did not know that. This was kind of under the radar, but they have been accumulating BTC almost for the past decade. So is this a surprise that they're predicting a $1 billion Bitcoin price by 2038? They're putting their money where their mouth is. But anyways, we have Julian Timmer, Director of Global Macro Fidelity, believing that one Bitcoin could be worth $1 billion per coin by the year 2038. Send it and let's go. Timmer also believes that the orange coin could hit $1 million before this decade is over, which means by the year 2030, roughly seven years away. So that would represent a 20X multiple, the current Bitcoin market price of 48 ,000. But now obviously we're half that price of what we was. So that would now be 40X. And I know anyone can make predictions like that, but Timmer lays out his cause using his own valuation model and another well -known model, which we all know here on the channel, known as the stock, the flow. Timmer's demand model is based upon Metcalfe's law. Metcalfe holds that as the number of users of a network grows linearly, the value of the network grows exponentially. Thus, if the number of users doubled, its value would grow at four times or the square of two. Now Timmer's demand model grows steadily to about $1 million by the chart. Now, by contrast, now let's discuss the stock to flow model created by synonymous analysts. Plan B is based on the supply of new coins growing at a decreasing rate each year. This occurs because of the built -in happenings every four years. So given increases and adoption and demand, the result will be prices expanding exponentially. Indeed, the price of Bitcoin has grown approximately 10X every four years. Take that, Peter Schiff. These are facts, not just by 50 % slowdown in supply, pretty powerful stuff. That's right. Now, stock to flow predicts even faster growth in the price than does Timmer's demand model, especially after the year 2030. As I commonly cover here in the show, the stock to flow model is projecting roughly a half a million dollar Bitcoin price past the halving in 2024. In fact, the model shows a very wide array in their expectation, anywhere from a hundred thousand to a million dollars, with a half a million being dead in the middle, hence in a couple of episodes previously, if you missed it, we discussed Plan B's most recent prediction, which he shared on his YouTube channel, that he believes the Bitcoin price will be north of $530 ,000 per coin proceeding the Bitcoin halving in 2024. But let's get back to this math. This is the stock to flow model you're looking at right here. Now let's go back over here. This is some more insights. Timmer stated the value of the dollar changes in relation to other assets. And he further pointed out that just a dollar invested in stocks in the 18th century would be worth $4 billion in today's money. Isn't that insanity? Talk about super hyperinflation. So going by this assumption, $1 million in today's money can be worth a billion dollars in 20 years time. Good Lord. You better start stacking them now, fam. So changes in the dollar's value, especially depreciation over several decades, render the same amount with less purchasing power, which is why huge sums back then appear less by today's standards. For instance, $1 million can purchase a lot of significant things a few decades ago, but in today's perspective, reasonably higher end houses in the US cost between, I would say $200 ,000 and $500 ,000. The same $1 million may not suffice for the same class of houses today. This is a fact. Just here in Puerto Rico alone, I've seen the real estate market literally shoot up 100 to 300 % since moving to this island roughly four years ago. And that's not just an exception to the rule. It's all across the United States, hyperinflation. I mean, check out the rent prices. That will give us some insights to the true nature of inflation. You can check out Zillow, check out real estate five years ago in comparison today, and you'll probably see something quite similar. But anyways, there's an increasing number of billionaires across the globe. Facts. Some observers even believe we may see the first trillionaire in this lifetime. I think it could potentially be CZ, the finance CEO, or even Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy. Now, the same applies to organizations with several companies now passing the $1 trillion mark valuation cap. Fidelity previously pegged Bitcoin to hit $1 million in initial prediction made by Jerry and Timmer by the year 2035. However, he ultimately said, we're way too conservative. Let's move this target on up from $1 million by the year 2035 to $1 billion by the year 2038. So there you have it. Do you feel the Bitcoin price can likely exceed their conservative target of $1 million by the year 2030 within the next seven years and hit as high as $100 million to $1 billion per coin by the year 2038? Let me know your honest thoughts in the comments right down below. And don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts .net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live Q &A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. HODL.

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