Is Trump Losing the Midwest?

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Welcome to the be I'm Ari Melber and we are tracking some new sides. Trump campaign is worried about losing the Midwest and thus the entire race to Joe Biden trump spending precious time and resources on defense and state carried by wapping ten points. Last Cycle Iowa Biden is closing that gap and putting the state in a dead heat I was one of the thirty nine states Kobe is surging appointed his greeting donald trump's visit many voters their view this campaign homestretch through the prism of covert. And the criticisms not just coming from Joe Biden or the Resistance Iowa leaders, public health experts, independent writers all noting the trump is coming back now for votes after turning his back on the crisis there take the influential Des Moines Register stating that after jeopardizing our live from far. Trump decides to visit Iowa in person. Or take a look at this. You can't pull up trump's I will rally tonight without seeing this massive billboard pointing the way to yes. A super spreader of. Trump is plowing forward on breaking CDC guidelines lying about the risk of Colbert and the timing of vaccine and repeating two thousand sixteen claims in that state and in other key battleground states that from what we're seeing on the ground and our reporting may not play as well. Right now Democrats, say many measurable signs show that some voters are now onto the con- take a local paper in the state of Pennsylvania noting that trump is just recycling is two thousand, sixteen jobs message, which may work less during the current recession while the president blows up these stimulus talks this week. And his key groups like suburban women turn on Donald Trump that's according to internal polling newly obtained by politico or senior citizen's wavering on trump group that he needs for a winning coalition in several of these states, and since we were last on air just last night, roughly three more million ballots are in leading to nearly fifteen million total ballots cast, which again is vital because it may lock in votes at a time when Donald Trump appears down. So. If you follow all this stuff, you could see the facts trump's record are hurting him. But with the second debate canceled this week, not everyone's falling all the details which is important to keep in mind and that's true. We checked even in some key states that the candidates are visiting even for people who do read the paper. Take Florida which so many politicos obsessed over even when the candidates are on the ground I wanNA show, you hear a fairly typical big city paper, the Orlando Sentinel, the twenty, twenty race it's not the very top story or line. It's not top two on the right. You have to squint there and find it. We put it in red for you below the full in the very lower right hand corner, and that's with the nominee Joe Biden on the ground. Elections are one on preference and turnout. Popularity or preference really helps. But turnout commander more. That's how unpopular person like Donald trump managed to eke out a win in the electoral college in the first place even though remember he never pulled very high. He never pulled past fifty percent and he finished with few voters supporting him in our weird. Constitutional System. By right now, thanks from that evidence. We showed you in what we've been showing you throughout the week that they are up. So they're laser on taking that preference and trying to get the turnout with these growing leads states that trump won in two thousand sixteen big leads in some places above the margin of error and the question is, can the Democrats actually turn all those people out? I want to bring in someone who knows all about this polling Guru Cornell Belcher who worked on both Obama campaigns and wanting to taller the national political director for supermajority, which focuses ongoing political opportunities for women good evening to both of you. Cornell when you see the numbers up. What is the vital part for campaigns in October as voting's begun interning turning preference in turn out into victory? I think are a couple of things are really important. The numbers that are structurally different from twice I wanted to make that plex a lot of people still nervous about twenty sixteen. Structurally this is different than twice a couple of ways. One is different than to sixteen. In that in all these polls are driven showing by actually has a majority. And that is critical I. don't care if you're five, six, seven points. If you're below majority crazy things can happen. But in most of these bound states and certainly the national polling, he's now at a majority in Washington Post polling which I which I pay attention to hear because they they have the third party candidate in there as well. He's still at a majority you remember. Hillary was always ahead in the forced to way choice coastal majority but with the third party candidates who. Turned up the instrumental she was never had a majority of that. She got in nationally law with what what we saw with third-party Cornell just to pause on that point you raise because this matters you're pointing out that sometimes the question the voters get on the phone is different than what they're going to see. If they turn out, they get presented with two and it can change the actual science of what we're getting when they're gonNA go in the ballot box and see three or more explain to us exactly what's different now or what you think that there's more optimism for Biden compared to that. There was a protest right and we understood that that that that the third party candidates were repealing. A inaudible segment of the electorate who who, who was my time voted for for Bronco Rock Obama and nowhere is that more crystal clear than the State Wisconsin, what you saw those young people third party forty we also understand that the Russians have had a big play in and try and direct some of those specials and African American voters toward party candidate candidate candidates here. But even with their and candidates right now structurally, Biden has a majority of which is which is good and it's a stable majority. Are This is unusual in that you can't go back in the last two or three decades seeing where a Democrat has held a double digit lead nationally embattled most these battleground states for not one month that two months, three months. But basically, since June so structurally, this is very different and within the numbers is very different because when you look at right now you know among College White Women, the Horse Races Twenty seven, sixty, nine ad from the Washington. Post poll so know. So, you're talking about structurally this lead in and his support is very different than what we saw. Hillary Clinton Sixteen in two thousand sixteen quite frankly I'm gonna Bama and teen got but this is structurally even different than what we saw for Brock Obama. In Twenty, eight, twenty, twelve in two. Thousand eight I'M GONNA bring. You Anita? But. You're saying it diplomatically are you saying you think the number support a bigger margin for buying than what Obama One? Is Is blasphemed don't Tell Brak. Obama but I. Joe By going to beat it by. Wow don't you know it doesn't work when you say don't tell someone, but you're on live TV. That's really you are I mean again, I just want to underscore this. Again, we're following the the numbers and I've tried to show viewers we're GONNA continue report for you. Particularly, the votes cast the voter registration were at fifteen million votes. The election has begun, which is different than a hypothetical poll six months ago so we have an Obama pollster. Saying tonight, he is seeing the elements of the larger victory for Biden and Obama that you own that. Not Me that's really interesting coming from you cornell. Elliott. said it you're not telling you. There's no things what they're. Not. GonNa, let you forget this. I don't see it. But what I do see is absolutely the margins nationally the margins in these battleground states are undeniable but also an organizer. So first and foremost I'm always going to default to this is a turnout game. It is all about the people get showing up. I am absolutely looking at that almost fifteen million votes cast number and have optimism optimism about what we can expect to see as we get closer to the election cycle and I'm also a woman optimistic about women boating and turning out their friends and their. Families to make sure that binding gets over the finish line because what what is interesting here is Bala failures that you mentioned about trump and your opening are like boater boater spill that and voters are living that every single day. So on top of all them enthusiasm for a Biden Harris, they're taking their lived experience in an ongoing pen to make that didn't have to be this way in an economic recession that again didn't have to be this way but are here but we're all here because of trump and his administration's ineptitude.

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