#477 - Handicapping the Breeders' Cup

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It was originally supposed to happen albeit without spectators in the building at keeneland race course remember the kentucky derby was run in early september and the preakness in early october. Several year end championships will be decided at the breeders cup as they should be and possibly horse of the year on this show it would be too laborious to go through wall fourteen races. So we're going to take half of them and analyze them so you'll be informed when you watch and wager to help us do that. We welcome in one of our frequent handicapping guests. Bobby hauled who operates the new york. Hot list handicapping service and we also welcome. For the first time rachel mclaughlin. Who was one of the simulcast analysts at indiana grand as a matter of fact indiana grand racing as we record. This and rachel is kind enough to rearrange your schedule to have time to break down the breeders cup races with us and we are glad to have her. So let's get going. We're going to start with the juvenile fillies. And you get upsets. In this race. Big ones ria antonia thirty two to one take charge brandy. Sixty two to one and i could go on. There are more. Do you see an upset in this. Race rachel actually. Why was simply ravishing in here. I had a couple of bigger presley plays later. I know a lot of people are against the favorite princess more I've read a lot of handicappers. That are you know fading her in this race there against her and i did. I wanna guests or simply ravishing. I've been watching the morning works every morning for the past three or four days ever since halloween and just looks really good. Can you make peak train coming out of that grade. Want a mile sixteenth. Which is today's distance. One by over six links. I just think that she is going to pull up. The upset today are in this race and coming off a bullet to. I really really like her. She's got The highest figure in that last race as well. I look at the brisbane pages. And now a ninety seven and i was just so impressive to me and undefeated in all of her. Three career starts. I think simply ravishing is going to be the one cause princes nor is trying to make it four in a row. I in miami capping. It's impressive when they can go with those consecutive wins. That does take it out of them. Sometimes these are only two year old fillies. So i'm going to go against princess in here and i'm gonna go simply ravishing differences nor africa last week at this quotes. May i think it was pretty revealing. He's her speed figures of slow which they are. Some of the others is. But i know what a superstar looks like. And she's a superstar so act gotta go with that baffert knows worse. He's talking much higher about her. Say i think the neiman safe demean so I'm gonna say i'm gonna stick with our. I do think simply were having a heck of a good orders and it is a good quality. Feel because you got more since. I you know this out of the office certainly really good horse. I mean all she does winning girls daddy to for to its qualities. They'll but a writing. The superstar looks like and v thinks. That's what she is on. I'll go with it. I like richard thinking. Rachel ken mcpeek. Who's one five also bias. Still looking for his first breeders cup. But i'm going with this other horse at a price crazy beautiful at twenty two one. I mean she was no mattress simply ravishing or girl daddy in kentucky but if you watched the The last race she tried to pick her way through the back. She got bounced around. There was a wall of horses at the top of the stretch and she finished well. Maybe she doesn't win this. But i think she is completely under laid at twenty two one here. I think she has a big chance against these horses. And i'm with you. I don't think princess nor is i mean. Who did she beat out there in the west. Who is she beaten. Yeah that's that's that's a great point. I have the exact same subaru as bob. I want one seventy five. But i look at crazy beautiful because this is another one. I think the future star. Friday card is amazing in crazy. Beautiful looks really good in the morning and she's a very very classy. She looks old beyond her years. She goes out there. You know like a pro. So she i think is an excellent long shot to put into a super and you almost think maybe that second last time out in that race you know. He was testing her and she did well and could improve off the effort as we know improving horses a very dangerous horse. So that's definitely one to look out for bryan hernandez i mean. He's such an amazing jockey. So i agree with you there. That's a really nice long shot. She has princess. New are new are on the same page there. I definitely think she's good. Don't get me wrong. She's good. She could come out there and make us look like idiots and bob could say ha ha ha ha but i'm not going to be able to swallow the chalk that she's going to be really really low. I think jay breeders cup juvenile. Bob i believe you were there last year at the breeders cup when peter urgency trained storm the court one the juvenile at forty five to one biggest upset and juvenile history. And i think you've also been there. Most of the year to see jackie's warrior the favourite in this year's juvenile at a much less price to how good is jackie's warrior. Can he answered the to turn question. He is really good. I mean i you know. I yeah i did see him special. You wonder how the horses i thought maybe reinvestment risk is going to catch him but he wasn't. He is really active. Good horse problem. I see this race is going to be out. That really wasn't happening so much in the saratoga reason he's getting atop challenge. He's got enough to win. But this certainly i'm looking. I'm looking at it closer in the race to benefit from that commands. A horse sitting. On go i think is a real nice Has ability in this race. I really thought he put in a real good workout Putting real didn't race at churchill downs on derby day to win that the Than training grade from according to his connections He he he's he's the play. I'm then going. Because of the price. And certainly i do think that jackie's word is a legit. What are you see here. Rachel i also think jackie's warrior is legit horses while but at seven five. I'm gonna try to beat jackie's warrior with essential quality. I have said nongo to round out my try. I completely agree with what bob said just to add to that. If you arched non go in the mornings he is aptly named. He is definitely sitting on go and he is one of the standouts in this race. I think as far as what he looks like in the morning for sure. So i'm going five seven nine three in this race that i do like essential quality on top here. That win at keeneland is the difference for me. Because you know jackie's warriors coming from new york so shipping in and is trying keeneland for the first time whereas essential qualities already proven at today's distance at the track on the surface and won convincingly by over three lengths You know a great one as well and brad cox this year just on fire. You can't say enough about his sources even his string here in indiana. I mean it's like a running joke whenever i handicap obits special way. Let's not go against brown cox here. But he's definitely. His percentage is going up in graded stakes as well. And it's a twenty two percent win clip right now and coming off. This bullet work. I just think the five essential qualities poised a coffee

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