Are big families the centre of Victoria's second wave?
So let's kick off with Victoria with as close to that seems to have sprung up from the Chechen shopping center cluster and it's moved out into regional Victoria. Now, it's some people in kill being infected. In a cafe and it just shows you the power of an outbreak and how this virus spreads through clusters and Robin more evenly spread such as influenza. And so for example, three of the cases of the fifteen. So caught a lot of cases yesterday where linked to the chat stone, which is club outbreak. This is a situation where you have got spread. It's still growing and they haven't been able to keep the legitimate so far. The chief health officer in Victoria Breath, Sutton explained why Victoria has been harder to do the contact tracing the nail swear because the family groups that are involved or have been involved a much larger. So where the family groups own averaging Australia to two and a half people. There more than six people in some situations, which means that you've got multiplications of complexity in terms of contact tracing. So each type provide you with another maybe ten people that you've got to contact, and if you've got six rather than two or three, it becomes very complicated and home said many times before is where you primarily catch covid nineteen, the covid nineteen virus. I was really surprised to see those statistics about the family size thought that was really interesting but I did wonder whether actually would make it easier if people living in the. Same. Household I thought that maybe it would make it easier to get in touch with them. It just creates far more people you've got to get in contact with, but yes, you're right. You're you're not chasing too many people depends how late you come to the events, and if you've if you're coming a bit later than you might have six people with Tim contacts each then if three or four days later and you haven't caught it in the first two or three days, then each one of those contacts is contained so it just multiplies out. So if people aren't coming forward for testing quickly or the contact tracing doesn't get on top of it quickly then you'd lose control of it to some extent. So fifteen new cases in Victoria. Are we getting out of control again down there I think what does shows is if if you remember a couple of weeks ago, the Burnet Institute released. Their modeling, which showed that if Torey took their food off the break too quickly on the twenty eighth of September, they could return to very large numbers very quickly and they were supporting the fact that the premier did not take the food off the break too quickly and it was fairly measured but it just shows you that if you lose control of an outbreak, this can grow very very quickly. So it doesn't mean it's to control. But. It does mean you're at high risk and it just shows you the burden. It was probably right if you had lifted your foot off the brake, it could be that you'll be dealing with multiple outbreaks because this is no breaking Chattan shopping center during lockdown. Or relative lockdown. So this is not good news, but at least they're across it and they don't seem to have too many cases under investigation at the moment, and that's the real danger in Victoria when they lose the plot and they just don't know where they're getting their infection from. Some out some more data that came up yesterday was that New South Wales had eleven, new cases all in hotel quarantines community transmission, which is really encouraging. But that seems like a large number of hotel quarantine cases. It just goes to show if we didn't have hotel quarantine those cases, it'd be out in the community. That's absolutely right. Our border control. The fact that we are an island has made an enormous difference to. This pandemic you've seen this huge second wave in Europe we would have had bet to So our border controls are incredibly important and it's not surprised by the way that you're seeing it live in cases because I assume that people are coming back from Europe and they're coming back from the United States and as they do so they're coming back from places where they've got second wave sometimes much larger than the first. Wave. So this is a situation where we would expect to be seeing more hotel quarantine hotel warranties could be really tight. It's probably too early for what the prime minister was suggesting, which is that you allow people to go into their own homes because the influx of people who are going to be positive is going to be growing but at least we're keeping the lid on it and I think as far as I'm aware. Of their keeping the only in Victoria and Queensland as well. So they were community transmission cases in New South Wales yesterday but there was also really low numbers of testing and they're still finding virus fragments in sewage. Yes. The way forward here has to be constant surveillance to see if you're missing cases and if you missing cases you've got to go in and you've got to try and do as close to possible mass testing. The still doing that with PR testing, but you could probably do it a bit more flexibly with rapid testing using rap protests are. Reasonably accurate. But you got to get in and find out where the viruses because I don't think we can any longer rely on people coming forward. I. Think there's fatigue I also think there's probably not much cold symptoms around because people aren't mixing as much. But you just cannot rely on the tasting regime. So you find it. I think Hawkesbury was one area in. New South. Wales. They've gone in and trying to extra testing and highlighting it to the local community. But really anybody listen to this wherever you are in Australia we've said it time and time again come forward for testing even if there's been no case in your state for. Weeks and weeks and weeks come forward just in case.