What Could Dethrone Solar in Home Energy?
Given that is obviously easier is less complex and forward to get an induction stove or whatever than it is to get sore roof. Why did solar scale. I like why was solar the right anchor product for you know the last decade i think a lot of the technologies surrounding at vacation and of course home batteries and vs wouldn't quite mature. Sorta as you as you to call has been worked on since the eighties in the two thousand and it became much more affordable for it to be distributed solution as opposed to being centralized solution from cost effectiveness standpoint and again they were Market forces like the d. incentives like incentives Investment tax credits for solar. That made it much more affordable and that drove the the adoption of solar as. We look ahead though. I think solar will continue to grow but i think these other products and other offerings will have a much higher growth rate relative disorder so okay so let's characterize where we're at today so we've got now. What two million residential solar rooftops in the us. Roughly speaking. i think more than that now. So we've hit a a decent share of the population. But obviously there's still. I mean we're nowhere near penetrating. The entire you know readily accessible single family would south or west facing unobstructed rooftop park. It's there's still growth to be had there But it has scaled as you said the attach rate for batteries has gone up a lot in certain geographies particularly so you and i are both in in california in the bay area. And you know here. The attachment rate for so for storage which means basically the percentage of new solar customers that are also putting in a batteries white like upwards of a third at this point i think in the bay area might even be higher because of proactive power. Shut off so that's coming up but you know off of a very small base still. It's still relatively small market for essential batteries. And then there's a- you know where the growth is sort of in the us anyway. The growth is always right around the corner we haven't quite hit that inflection point yet but it appears that it's coming and then there's all this other electrical stuff in the home the electrification of heat and cooking and all that kind of stuff I know that a big part of your thesis at span is that you can bring all of those components together via the home electrical panel. But i wonder do you think that those things will be sold together at any point or is it always going to be a bunch of disparate purchases that then need some unifying piece of technology to tie them all. Together i think increasingly very successful solar installations sort of financing companies are looking to move to a model where they want to deliver energy service and want to offer products that go beyond just sort of It's it's a. It's a natural extension of where they are today to try to offer. Ev charging products. It's a natural extension of where the obviously offer storage. Which as you mentioned has We're seeing in california fairly high tax rates. The reason i believe the electrical panel will be sort of central to the adoption of all of these types of technologies is because seventy percent of homes in the us have electrical panels that are either outdated and therefore art of code or under capacity right. There are one hundred one hundred twenty five amps range and as you think about the computer adoption of these different types of technologies they will inevitably need to be upgraded or replaced in order for them to support the homes to support these technologies. And i think the companies that are already offering sorta are really well poised to be able to bundle these together and offer to customers both because they're either already into million homes and they can go back to these customers and offer them out on porn addicts or there are a large number of homes that they are yet to provide solutions to that may not be well suited for solar but can be well suited for other products like batteries and charging everything that happening. This is one of these things always. It seems so obvious. And yet i feel like i haven't actually seen anybody do it at scale like i've any solar installers gone back to their existing customer. You have a twenty year relationship with those customers. If you're signing up early sir doing the maintenance on the solar so you obviously should be able to go back and sell them on and ev a charger. Or whatever i like. I don't see it happening is is it happening. It is beginning to happen. And i think perhaps we are closer to the customer. Then investors are and what we're seeing is a lot of these companies are seeing that over the course of the next three to five years. They're going to have to differentiate what they offered to customers the only indications of that our companies offering not just storage kazillion see but storage with economic benefit like virtual part plants. Right so that's an expansion of not just offering solar harbor solution would ppa's or loans leases or just storage as a as a cost if you will where in most markets in the us especially. There's no payback for storage. But they're trying to find ways to wrap that with offerings like bush apartments and i think we'll continue to see that evolve into products that are very naturally closely tied to solar and storage. Because when you go to install these products you are. You're typically doing a fair amount of electrical work and onsite work and there's an easy opportunity to offer the customer a final dollar charter if you will and i think that is beginning to happen as we speak. It'll be goaded by customer demand. But also i think will be made made easier by energy services that'll be offered by income and solar companies but increasing utility companies as well. Yeah it's interesting. I think the dream is this energy as a service model where somebody can offer me. All of the things that i need for my home energy needs or degree in my home or whatever the reality i think for a lot of customers true for me how to speak for myself is that i'm just on a different buying cycle for different things like i want solar when i need to replace my roof. I want an v charger. When i need to replace my car I want and induction stove. When i when it's time for me to like my old stow so i'm just on this journey. That is not. That's more sequential than it is simultaneous. But i do ultimately want all those things. I want all those things to be talking to each other or at least talking to some third thing which i know is is your bread and butter because ultimately i want all of the components of my energy usage matter g generation my energy storage in my home to be optimized such that. I'm saving as much money as possible. Or perhaps if i were a slightly better person it would be so that i've minimising impact on greenhouse gas emissions but nonetheless. They need to be interoperable. But i don't think they need to be purchased simultaneously. You're absolutely right. And some homes have solar fewer fewer homes storage. I think even for your home's electric vehicle charging today but practically every home has an electrical panel by building a twenty first century version electrical panel what we are enabling is a longitudinal relationship with the homeowner. That of course of the next twenty or thirty years that our panelists embedded in your home. We're able to present data and able to present a direct or able to present both the the data as the ease of installation as you choose to decide solar a year from now as you choose decide. Ev charging a couple of years from now and choose to electrify your appliances five years as opposed to each of these instances being a fairly independent event that either costs a lot of money. And therefore you choose not to do it or a requires a fair amount of convincing in the absence of data if you will.