Has NSW's luck run out?
Christmas week saw christmas wig. Norman and over the weekend we have seen. The sydney outbreak will the northern beaches outbreak really grow and restrictions of coming to place when we said good bata audience on friday nominee. Pretty optimistic that we were going to be out of now these thing before. Christmas is still feeling that way. I'm nervous i think. I don't think they're doing enough. The risk is that it overwhelms the contact tracing. It's just you. Don't you never know where it is. And yeah probably called it wrongly pepsi two racks about it but it is There are a lot of cases. They and they're not just in the northern beaches area when you look through the list of locally acquired cases there you there in sydney there in the north northern suburbs there in the eastern suburbs. not many. but there's just a few and you don't need many. This started with just one case from overseas. Probably aircrew of the prices. Speculating on somebody being in You'll getting exemption but either way it's from overseas and the system is broken down. Basically new south wales luck has run out so new south wales approach up until now has just been really intense contact tracing and that actually been pretty successful with keeping a handle on the cases. They're considering the work houses a few months ago. So the restrictions that they operating in the northern beaches a pretty tough. But there's still more that they could be doing. Isn't it well. I just think it's called smacking. But haven't mandated masks sydney white. I mean that's the first thing you do. You just tell everybody living in greater sydney soon as you walk how she wear a mask. I know you can't transmit it very well but taking a mask on an office you go inside just what soon as you go out you put on your mask and that means review go. You've got your mask on. It's cheap effective by seventy percent. You don't know where the viruses just mandate. I do not know why the new south wales government is so done on mask. Wearing how much of a problem is it that we still don't really know exactly how this outbreak kicked off. Oh it's huge that you know how well i think we know how tall it kicked off. Somehow from somebody from overseas the was negative until the tenth of december the genomic strongly suggests from overseas perhaps the united states and so it spread from somebody who's coming from overseas. The question was aircrew. Was somebody returning to from overseas somebody who was given exemption to go home and didn't stay at home. Who knows what the story might be. from overseas trouble is we don't know when and we're not really sure where we know where the super spreading events where the super spreading events in a bowling club and the avalon oursel- and there are other hotspots around hotspots places where people have been but essentially a very big dense people having a lot of fun good on them into there was a problem at that point but that was a super spreading event and from there. It spread outwards. And it's not just to satisfy curiosity that we want to know where these outbreak kicked off from. We need to know where the chink is armagh so that we can make sure that this doesn't happen again. Well no it's more than that. It's it's that's part of it but that's kind of done the track a little bit when you're dealing with an a pandemic that breaks out in clusters you've got to find all the clusters and you've got to find out where the cluster started so whilst you got to say well okay teagan you are at the avalon bowling club on on a certain date which was high risk and everybody that you've been in contact with. We want to know we actually want go before you know what happened. What were you doing two three four five days before then before you tested positive where where you and actually start the contact tracing back in time in history and what they're doing now is they're trying to do that new south wales back to the twenty third of november to give a bit of a margin beyond what they think might be. The first cases roundabout the first of december. So you to go back in time as well as get the immediate context and by there's going to be secondary context is going to be people who got first time around To second time around and it's out in the city and in other suburbs as well as outside the northern beaches and as we find out from victoria. it's very hard to ring-fence a suburb. But as we said i think in the last grown cast the northern beaches are fairly straightforward to ring fences the much more well defined than some of the really big in warfare suburbs in melbourne's northwest corridor.