How will Trump's impeachment affect November elections?


Even as the Senate impeachment trial is set to get underway president Donald Trump touts his economic success while at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday he said that the US has regained its edge against other nations in areas like trade job creation and energy when I spoke at this forum two years ago I told you that we had launched the great American come back today I'm proud to declare that the United States is in the midst of an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen before Rick Davis we were talking earlier about all the other things going on in addition to impeachment the the broad expectation is that president trump will not be convicted he will stay in office finish out his term with all that being said the presidential election coming up what is the game here what are the Democrats to take it from that perspective hoping trying to accomplish here well I do think there's a element of trying to change the narrative trump just had a big success signing a trade deal with China that he said he was gonna bring China to their knees and arguably he can he can declare some success and the ratification even in the midst of all this impeachment of the U. S. M. C. A. the trade deal between Canada and US it's quite a feather in his cap I mean he's gonna have a signing ceremony while impeachment is going on showing the American public that he's out there doing the hard work the presidency in in you load on top of that low unemployment and investment breaks great stock market records and and he's got a story to tell that that doesn't include impeachment so I think the fact that the Democrats have made a huge gambit on saying we want to start this year an election year talking about impeachment means they have confidence that somehow this is gonna nor to their benefit sure they're gonna tell yeah all we're doing this because the right thing to do and the country needs to have written you know this this this catharsis because otherwise gosh this guy will be uncontrolled and the remainder of his presidency but the reality is this is all about elections and there is an election in ten months and regardless of what happens with impeachment there's gonna be an up or down vote on Donald Trump and and Democrats I think believe that somehow this is going to help them I think the jury's out just like it is on impeachment Craig when all this is said and done in a few weeks months whatever it is how would one define success for Democrats here is it winning over a few Republican votes is at getting John Bolton up there and and saying embarrassing things about the president what what how would you define success is they're they're democratic fetching involves trying to get no Republican votes the expectation is that if you were down from twenty sixteen you're still gonna go from a twenty twenty year dug in your ear dug in deep and you're gone you're either going up with the server down with the ship this is all aimed at those moderates in the middle and again as we talk about every cycle rate can talk about it better than I can even but you know there are those I think it's people things maybe ten or fifteen percent people kind of in the middle who are like you know twenty sixteen act much care for Hillary from kinda like the cut of trump's J. about love that guy from the apprentice he seems like a real decisive guy I'm gonna roll the dice and take my chances you know three years and they're like oh my gosh what have I done they don't let you talk to Democrats when they do focus groups people say they talk about the tweets like I don't really like to tweets which is become kind of a substitute for like I really like his style like he's got a real not very nice to people in the in the you know whatever so I think that the I mean it's a kind of I don't want to sound so cynical but a lot of this impeachment is aimed at maybe that ten percent fifteen percent twenty percent of the way outside the Democrats think are persuaded bowl you know former trump voters are people least took a took a walk on the trump side of the street maybe could come over to the Democrats and really want to dirty up trump as best they can you know he was he was shady and that way you don't Ukrainians and etcetera I think it's a huge gamble I think you know again as we just talked about a last second if you are not exactly riveted by the impeachment yet at least so far and I think Democrats put a lot of chips on this particular square it may work it may not but what they have what trump has is always of Rick said great economy two or three good trade deals and and a real you know telling his back yeah I would say just to add to that is that part of the play for the Democrats as defensive right I mean if you blow see the speaker of the house did not want to DO impeachment and it was the left wing of her party that forced her into it I mean she resisted resisted and she finally caved in because the one thing they can't afford is a disenfranchised base right I mean Hillary Clinton lost in states like Wisconsin because she underperformed what Barack Obama got there by eight in this case in two thousand sixteen she got two hundred fifty thousand fewer votes than Barack Obama did Donald Trump got twenty thousand fewer votes than Mitt Romney did but was able to beat Hillary Clinton that state because she didn't turn out base so a lot of the democratic strategy is fire up that base make sure they're happy if they deliver at the scale that they did for a bomb it's very hard to see a scenario where Donald Trump wins Craig this of course is going on right is were approaching the first presidential primary in Iowa it is there an easy way to describe what impact it's going to have on on the primary especially with some of the leading candidates not all of them but some of them here in Washington and sitting quietly in their seats drinking well yeah sort of at the tactical level it's a great day for Joe Biden or people to judge because you're not a member the United States Senate and so you're free to is moved to Iowa for the next two weeks and and set up shop for the senators running obviously Sanders and Warren called which are really Michael Bennett is still running for president someone told me today so I guess for senators you know it's it's actually trick here I do think out of the more on the strategic level though this is kind of baked into the cake for democratic primary voters and I will you don't really here the campus talk that much about it it's kind of understood of your democratic primary voters like accepted that you don't much care for Donald Trump weather's being in Peter not impeach or convicted or acquitted it it's all it's sort of like the backdrop against which the whole campaign is being run so the the rallies I attended when I was in I was people I've talked to it doesn't come up that much but I do think it's on the front of the minds of primary voters in one important way which is we need to find a candidate that can beat Donald Trump that's really good news for Joe Biden let's goodness for some of the others but that is really the the sort of the driving force behind the caucuses in the primaries are to come Rick isn't about thirty seconds if you can we get to November where is impeachment in Ukraine where to those rank on the panoply of of the issues that voters are going to think about when they well I think I'm on a piece of it I mean we blow through issues so quickly nowadays because of the mass media and how quickly we cycled through things that I would be surprised that the trend actually carries much weight November I would say though that that that Ukraine scandal will continue all right even though impeachment will end in a couple of weeks they'll still be reporting about these crazy deals that we're trying to be struck and what was happening so I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine has a doesn't have that were porting on it doesn't have a bigger impact in the impeachment itself okay my thanks to Rick Davis former John McCain national campaign manager in Bloomberg contributor in Craig Gordan Bloomberg's Washington

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