North Korea, Trump Kim And President Trump discussed on Killer Innovations
Talk with Jim Campbell a failed summit in Hanoi between President Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong is there any chance to get to denuclearization of North Korea. We it expert on North Korea from the Fletcher school of law and diplomacy at Tufts University, that's right. Sean Lee is professor in Korean and East Asian studies had a specialist on North Korea at Tufts University, my alma mater. So we're particularly proud to have him on the show. Also an associate in research at Korea Institute at Harvard. I haven't heard much about that Harvard, whatever it is. But professionally has provided advice to the US government, and he's an outspoken proponent of several policies aimed at changing the North Korean regime towards a path of denuclearization and improvement of human rights. Well, keeping the peace and stability in northeast Asia. Welcome professor honor to have you. Thank you for having me. So we have the summit of two guys with really bad hair was fail. Summit was that better than a bad deal. Well, as in the price site when the contest and in an unsatisfactory role or a controversial decision usually a sequel follow. So I expect Trump Kim summit three at some point because both men wanted. And it really changed. The power dynamics the interests of the two parties. I don't think. So I think Kim. Probably for the first time in his life was snubbed and he was taken aback by that. I'm sure he's never been treated like that. Where President Trump just said. Okay. You know? Things to do. He Trump was to leave scheduled leave Hanoi before Kim. But certainly that took the wind out of Kim's itinerary in Vietnam over the next two days, and I'm sure Kim felt you know, dump not by it. So North Korea held a press conference late night that at and said strange things like oh, always sought was sanctions relief from the UN Security Council resolutions passed after two thousand sixteen to improve the livelihood of the people, which is someone ironical. But that's like saying, you know, we just saw ninety nine percent of sanctions to be terminated because before two thousand sixteen Neider UN nor US sanctions had any fight. They were defensive and reactive and really did not target North Korea's access to the international. An actual services banking services and sectors like prohibition on North Korea's coal exports or textiles skill or minerals. So that was disingenuous if the north Korean Foreign Minister to said we just wanted a little bit of sanctions relief. And then he's deputy Madame Choy. Who's been an American US handler manager for decades? Now, she's usually good. But she said something stupid as well. She said, well, this wasn't historically unprecedented. Offer that we gave to the US. So he was your best chance. Well, let's not true. Because all that North Korea offered on the table was selling the same Tony rice. Now the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, which condones father sold with success in the nineteen ninety seven two thousands. And then in two thousand five North Korea put down in ink in paragraph. One off the September nineteenth two thousand five twin statement that the DPRK that North Korea. Quote is committed to abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear weapons programs. What I'm trying to say is they have lied in the past repeatedly and read the billions and benefits, and that was an unwitting admission that they've been lying all along, you know. And also, apparently there's been testing backup ICBM's still enriching uranium and I read even two weeks before the summit. So I of you were saying that Kim was sort of stood up there, sending President Trump actually do a smart thing, by the way, he walked out. And are they ever serious about really? Denuclearizing or even suspending testing for any real length of time. Well, if you were to ask that question to you. Eight other nuclear weapons state China. Russia US UK, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, I think very few people. I think very few listeners would even entertain that four that it's actually feasible through diplomacy. Artful diplomacy to compel the target nation to give it up. I mean, no other country has dangled before the international community. The possibility all denuclearization North Korea's the only country that has been able to booze will the world for decades now by doing this, and you know, because North Korea so Pat crude and weird because it's such a strange amalgamation, all evil, Maure and. Bellicosity we tend to patronize North Korea. We tend to assume there's just a small with nation. So for the right price. Maybe they'll give it up. Well, one could say an I would that exactly for the same reasons because they have nothing else and they have to contend with a fall richer magnetic, South Korea. They would never give it up under the current circumstances where they feel no real fighting financial or diplomatic pressure. Does that mean that President Trump is sort of conceded that they'd do? Now do not have to dean, Luke. I speed doesn't matter disease is that a concession that falls right into the path. That Kim would like I can President Trump made the mistake all impulsively agreeing to Germans proposition for a blind date for the summit last year. And now he's been trapped into this never ending process of negotiations during which time Kim will more time and money in the form of lax or. Non sanctions enforcement against his regime with which to do what he really desires, which is to grow to further advance, you capability so time is not on our side. But President Trump was right to walk away from this trap from this deal. Let me ask you this. What is the strategic rationale for Kim out of any deal, obviously to Trump and to me, it would be the economic growth side would be a brilliant thing that North Korea could bite onto. But is that what is not rational in your mind to do anything? Well, if you look at the basic internal dynamic in the Korean peninsula. You have to Korean states North Korea and South Korea, the people of Korea have long shared past offensive, we persist they career versus the outside world mentality. They were not divided geographically or politically for over a thousand years until the principal victors of the second World War, the US and the USSR temporarily divided the Korean peninsula really to facilitate the surrender of Sapnish troops dispersed throughout the Korean peninsula. Because Korea was Japan's colony so that temporary division which has held for over seven decades means that the two Korean states have been engaged in a contest an existential contest for pan Korean legitimacy, which is the more legitimate Korean state. If you rephrase that question and ask DPRK North Korea. Why do you really have to exist? What is your resume? What is the mission all the Kim regime? Then the answer becomes rather complicated because you have already a very successful legitimate free affluent Korean state across the border in a why does there need to be another Korean state? So the shear existence the magnetic field of South Korea to the North Korean people that is a long term threat to the Kim regime. Well, how do you take care of that long term existential threat as it has spotted Korean state, you try to wipe it out. How do you achieve that? First by the coming, a credible threat to South Korea's biggest patron biggest supporter of the United States by becoming a credible nuclear threat to the US mainland, and then through carrots and sticks compelled a US to sign a peace agreement are LA Vietnam in nineteen seventy three which will lead to the withdrawal of US troops downgrading of US support for South Korea act, which North Korea will be better positioned to extort police. Sensor, South Korea. And then you hope to move right in. Exactly, that's the Vietnam model. So there's no this really endless irony in the administration preaching to North Korea. You too can be like Vietnam followed a Vietnam model. You can remain a single party communist dictatorship and grow rich richer, like get numb the Vietnam model has a specific meaning in the North Korean political lexicon. And that is the Vietnam model of communist unification. So so does he does he realize that he's got to grow the economy there at all care about that as you care about his people? Well, when North Korea suffered a famine more than twenty years ago, and this is a unique phenomenon because it is the the North Korean famine is the only case old an industrialized urbanized literate society undergoing a famine it will forever. Forever remain. The only case on convinced that always famines stricken countries that pre industrial agriculture base. Mistreated economies where adult illiteracy is quite High North Korea does not fit that pattern. But so when that famine happened, maybe upwards of ten percent of the North Korean people. Died of starvation didn't North Korea really flinch to the regime allow even the delivery or international food aid to underprivileged people in rural provinces. No, so North Korea, the regime shows little regard for human life, and as long as the elites in Pyongyang in the showcase capital city and the military and men with access to big guns are placated. I don't think the regime really needs to worry too much about growing the national economy. There is the separate tallies economy, which leads and then the rest of the.