Erdogan's safe zone will be anything but for Syria's Kurds
President rage of tie up. Aired one says he wants to form safe zones in northern Syria. So that millions of refugees from the country's bitter. Civil war can begin to return home. Paul Rogers is a professor of peace. Studies at Bradford university. Paul welcome to the program. First of all, can you explain how this would work? It's the key thing is that's the we'll ready being something like three hundred thousand the refugees in Syria returning to the country, really across the border torture. Mike Cole northwest Syria, which is being an area that took actually being controlling now. That in a sense is already that we don't know whether the three thousand three hundred thousand figures, accurate, probably isn't it. Centrally true that took us had huge numbers of refugees go into to key both from Iraq. But more particularly from Syria, maybe several million even so it does really want to see them return. But the problem is while took his century has a kind of buffer zone to the west of you. Freight is of the western pouch of northern Syria. It does not control territory twenty extent to the east, and what it really wants to do is to have some sort of zone of its own control stretching about thirty two kilometers twenty miles into Syria. But of course, the point is east of the Euphrates in the northeastern politics area, the territory's very largely controlled by codes, particularly the fight is of the socal could if people's protection units, they wipe E G, and the the Turks regards the white PG as more or less, an offshoot or very close ally of the outlawed Kurdistan. Well, because poverty, the PK K within Turkey. So what you're really seeing is what took you wants to do is extending its existing area of controlled and Swiss Syria to a belt writer loan, the northeastern Bulte dot com. Tamil problematic, their assistant, they won't do it. They'd like to do with American cooperations the American troops leave for the cousin. Extremely unhappy about that. Well, that's interesting because the Americans have said and are trumpeting. The fact they believe ISIS in the region is defeated but before the world knew of the so-called Islamic state. There was and still in many places is a brutal civil war. So how would it be possible? Then that there's there's space for people to return to well. The presumption is on the Turkish pub that the war is starting to ease up to to sort of ease away because the reality is that President Assad does have control of much of the country's being helped in that by well Circe by Iranian forces by Hezbollah by the Russians and in a sense to but in very bluntly as far as most a is consent. He is now winning. This will however unpalatable that may be many observers across the world. So the Turks now believe that at least. Some of the refugees will feel emboldened to go home people who've basic refugees from the terrible fighting rather than Solta known opponents this regime, I think that's just that thinking, but a colts. The real issue is what happens as far as the could shares of northeastern Syria can said let it be said there's very good independent evidence that in many of Nolte Syria the codes have actually rump. Things sorta technocratically pretty competently. This is why the wires on. That course, what they really fear is the with Trump wanting to get the two thousand customers troops out to Syria previously allied with these codes than because we'll be more or less left on the ledge. And that I think is a call surreal unhappiness, not just run suspects in northeast Syria, but across Kurdish communities in into in Iraq and possibly even Iran as well. Well, as you mentioned, we don't know the exact details of this, but Ankara seems to have some consensus with the US and with with the white PG. But I wonder about what the reaction would be from Moscow and the Assad regime in Damascus how open would they be to this very open? But on the other hand as far as Moscow is concerned. They do not want to incur greater expenditure in Syria. They want to maintain their influence. It's been very custody for them in economic terms. So basically, they will settle for something.