A highlight from NFL Week 6 Betting Picks -The GBI Show
What's going on, everybody. Welcome to another exciting edition of the GBI show. That's right. It's gridiron, betting insights here on ATS, Jay San and you are host as always taking you through tonight. The week 6 NFL slate, of course, we'll get into Thursday Night Football. The bucks and the eagles getting after it, we will talk about the other games on the schedule as well 14 games. We finally have some buy weeks, which means we can let the games breathe a little bit, talk about at length here on the GBI show, of course, if you are watching live, we appreciate you. Not quite as much as urban Meyer surely appreciates Jon Gruden this week. Talk about bailout there for urban Meyer. But we do appreciate you nonetheless glad to have you here. If you are with us live, you can chat with us. We got the chat box role and you can do that on Twitter and YouTube, of course, if you're listening on demand, either on YouTube, Twitter or the podcast, feed, subscribe to the ATS podcast feed, by the way, you can get all these shows in audio form, which allows you to get the same great betting information, the same great gridiron betting insights you've come to expect without having to look at this face as from what I've heard a huge plus. But either way, no matter how you check it out the show, we certainly appreciate it. So let's get into it here, folks. We will start out with Thursday Night Football. We are talking about the books. And the eagles, the Buccaneers, a 6 and a half, 7 point road favorite, depending on where you shop. Total 52 and a half. And it's an interesting game, right? Because before last week you would have said, okay, the bucks are going to roll in this game. And the bucks rolled Miami in their game last week on Sunday. However, you'll look at the way the eagles played last week and all of a sudden, now it's all well, you know, is Tom Brady the square play. Do the eagles have some life as a dog. And they very well might coming into this game. Of course, the eagles last week, down by quite a bit against the Carolina Panthers, but they came back in the second half. They look real good in that second half to fight their way back into that game. They do just enough to pick up the win against a strong Carolina defense on the road. You give them credit for that. The question is, can they carry it over now back at home? And there are some data points that suggest that they might be able to do so. First of all, you look at the way the Philadelphia Eagles like to move the ball, they like to do it with the running game. They are one of the best teams in the league at running the football averaging 5.2 yards per carry the season. The issue there, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, their strength is stopping the run that give up just under three yards per carry on the defensive side, do the Buccaneers. That's gonna cause a little bit of an issue for the eagles. However, you have some injuries that do favor the Philadelphia Eagles in this game. Gronk, you got Antoine Winfield. You got Levante David all out for the Buccaneers in this game. Injuries for the eagles as well. Certainly lane Johnson as big a loss as you can take on that eagle's team and of course doubtless God going to be out as well. But you'll look at these teams and statistically they are pretty evenly matched in terms of their per play averages. The Buccaneers gaining just .2 yards per play more than the Philadelphia Eagles so far this season, the eagles allowing fewer yards per play than the bucks. It's pretty evenly matched as far as these two teams are concerned. The scoring certainly favors the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and that's a product of red zone execution. Of course, Tom Brady always going to be better at that than Jalen hurts. But this is a game where if the eagles on a small sample size of one game here, if they can get the ball into the end zone a few times in those red zone opportunities, well, they could very well not only cover the spread, but with this game outright. Of course, everybody talking about the data point suggesting that Tom Brady and his teams tend to struggle in these prime time games in terms of covering the spread. And yes, it's been an ugly list of games where they haven't. And of course, you look back last year, they did play a road Thursday Night Football game played it against the Chicago Bears team that was also struggling to put points on the board, but the bears managed to stop Tampa Bay over and over again and win that game outright. We could very well see the same thing here. It's a no play for me. I mean, at 7, yes, the logic would suggest the eagles are a good play at home on a short week. But it's one of those games where you get down 14 points and the team you're down to has Tom Brady and you have Jalen hurts. The guy who they benched for an 8 sudfeld in week 17, the whole franchise should be in Guantanamo Bay. You knew I wasn't going to not get that in during a Thursday Night Football preview featuring the eagles, lock them up, SJ walked them up, you don't want to be on the wrong side of that situation of Tom Brady being up 14 on your team that you need to cover a 7. And I'll maybe Jalen hurts will come back on. And it's a no play for me. The logic would suggest the eagles, but you still have Tom Brady on the other side. You still have one of the most explosive offenses in the league this season and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the other side. It is one I will happily stay away from. But I think we could very well get a better game than is being expected by a lot of people heading into this one. So that's Thursday Night Football should be an interesting one. Now let's move to the Sunday slate. And of course, again, a couple fewer games on the Sunday slate. The normal don't be alarmed. We will still give them all the time and attention that they deserve. We will start with an all Floridian matchup in the AFC. We're talking about the Miami Dolphins taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars, over under that game 47 dolphins a three point favorite on the road. Of course, the Jaguars, I will see how they react to this Jon Gruden news too. Now their coach isn't the one under the microscope, which was interesting to begin with, the way we talked about that whole urban Meyer thing was so weird. I mean, it seemed like everybody was a willing participant. It seems like an issue between husband and wife more than coach and team. I don't think miles Jack is going to be affected if the Meyer family is no longer together at the end of all this, but whatever that's how we discuss these things. And NFL media. But I think that the Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance in this game. Now, two with Tonga viloa might come back for this game for the dolphins. Xavier Howard, however, questionable for the dolphins. One of the better all around defensive players in the league, not just one of the best corners in the league. One of the best defensive players in the league, the Jags their center Brandon linder now on IR worth mentioning as well. Now Miami awful moving the ball this season. Second to last in the league in yards per play this year. But you have to remember a lot of that came with Jacoby quarterback Bruce one of the bottom three guys in the league this year in terms of yards per pass attempt.