Odds of Catching COVID on a Plane?
Talk about the odds of catching cove in a fly in. So planes are flying an increasing amount. Obviously, it's still our like normal, but we're getting back there and so far. It doesn't seem like these are the. These are the vehicles of of infection like it doesn't seem like there's mass spread coming from airliners and they're talking about in this article at a Bloomberg, which is really interesting just about the odds of getting, you know basically this researcher Mr Barnett Song about that you have a basically a one in forty three hundred chance of getting Cova nineteen on a full two hour flight. So yeah. When what were your takeaways from this article? Well, that's that that is based upon just the having somebody sitting next to you with A. City actually for two hours and everybody's masked obviously. So there's you know the percentages Kinda change depending on where you are in aircraft right to it. So that's why the probabilities are so low that unless you're really setting real close to that particular person, there's some. Some probabilities with that I, it seems like the. The there's enough flight data and enough tracing history right now that I think you could pretty well say there's not huge outbreaks. I, think the cruise ships have had significant outbreaks of twenty percent of the of the the population on a particular crew's coming positive on an aircraft. We don't see that. So the one in five in numbers not bad one key thing. No one's rubbing suntan lotion on each other. I hope not. then. Traveling. sorry. Didn't mean to cut you off there decided that joking but but yeah. So and then what's interesting about this article is that he's talking about look just a proximity to other passengers. So if if there is one or two people on board that does have it, how close are you to them also you so you know again, tons about the systems on aircraft and he's talking about. How the air is constantly being renewed an airplane cabins. So it seems like every thirty minutes you pretty much brand new sooner than that totally sooner than that every couple of minutes, but it's also so about two thirds of the air's getting dumped overboard about a third is getting recycled back into the cabin after passes through filters and you know that the airlines are changing those HEP filled. On a regular basis plus they're cleaning the cabin so there shouldn't be much going into the NFL to begin what the clog it because the aircraft is clean as they probably have ever been. So, you know that the the air circulation system is going to be working at roughly peak performance you would think right now. So your your risk goes way way down and yeah adding that middle seat opening basically agenda a factor of two probability. So at lower your rate by a factor of two, that's that's a huge improvement for a single seat at that makes a big deal. But it just gets back. into. The likelihood at someone really has it. When not say that people haven't traveled with Kobe did not not know it. But it appears to me having traveled a good bit during this time at least a couple of times we traveled. There is nobody that appears to be even remotely sick or have not. Symptoms or right they don't do any of that and even if they had seasonal allergies in which were in that period of time or season allergies pop up no one at the airport is showing signs of seasonal allergies are just not traveling. So again, think your your risk are. Low and compared to other things that people are doing like going to the grocery store or go into the pharmacy. You Got Kinda put it way down on the list of risk items right now. Yeah, and he also wonder if the people that are saying, Oh, I feel okay. Traveling are probably living a healthier lifestyle in general like may be exercised little more I have no data back that up but you probably think that maybe the people who are healthiest are most likely to like give it a go seems reasonable although I have no data that's. Speculative. In ballpark is probably true I. think that people that feel they would be at risk. Are Not travelling yeah, which is which is good. Yeah which is smart. What? Their third way the odds also. So if I was eighty years old I'm probably not Airplane if I had a weakened immune system for whatever reason I'm probably not traveling on airplanes. So you're I. Think you're right about that. I think people are making smart decisions about how to travel and so what's left and that is the traveling public is in pretty good shape and and the right age demographic where they're not going to have severe consequences if they do happen to pick it up. So I I think you're partially right about that.