Expert Says U.S. Current Trend in Coronavirus Cases Isn’t Sustainable


With us. Dr. John Wade CI, the professor of the Global Health Programme, professor of health system and policy program. And the director of the Center for Global Health College of Public Health and Human Sciences at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon. And Dr CI Welcome back to the Mark Mason Show. It's my pleasure to be back with you. Well, I'm glad to hear your voice again. I always use you is kind of our update into the really world of Corona virus. What's really going on and a lot has happened since we last talked. On that the virus seems to be more prevalent than ever. But we seem to be learning to live with it. I suppose one of the virus limits we can live with. I mean, we won't like it. But can we get by at this rate? No. We add a to high rate a TTE this great, many, many stay or counties there. Health care for city would not be able to 15 we We have to bring down because most European and Asian country at much lower levels, so they are able to lead you much higher level of activity, which we still cannot. And so if we maintain this high level or pandemic, it will hurt both our economy and people's life and health, and so we had to do something to bring it down to a much lower level. Wow. I don't know how we do that. The governor's talked about maybe travel restrictions. Is that one possible thing we should seriously look at where maybe people from high incident states are are not allowed to come where they if they do. Come there, quarantined. Well, it is. It's It's a good idea, in theory, but in practice will be very difficult to implement. Because he had to send lots of people to monitor to supervise and that costs money. So are you thinking another lock down or slow down? No, no, I think for the last Upfield. Early June, We duty our 2.5 months left town. And we see the serious impact on Mike, honey, and I don't think al economy can sustain more locked down. What we need to do is to learn how to live. Save it. How to operate our business. I work safety and one particular major. Uh, I know the difficulty but that's very critical measure, not just Oregon. But slowly, 90 states we were not able to implement and that is one of the biggest reason we are in this high level off epidemic. So remember in my early and Evi I mentioned that there are three step process. That's important. The first step is contact tracing. The second step is testing and so We're not doing a superb job, but we have the great improvement compare with March or April in term of the first step. But we still fail on the last step that is after the testing. What do we do with the confirmed cases So far, we only isolate people with moderate to see via symptoms. And completely neglected people with mild or no symptoms, and the latest studies, said just people with mild to know Simpson. They accounted for about 80% of total infection. But this 80% of total infection also, if we don't contain them, they also contribute to about 70 to 80% of new infection. Just think about this way. We pay attention to the Penta pus it with more moderate to severe symptoms contained them. But we let the other 80% continue to spread the virus free tea, and it will be a miracle if we don't have. Ah, hi. Hi. Cases continue to be in this house. How did we get more testing? I mean, we can barely my doctor tells me that he has no more tests because they've shipped him off to Florida and Texas and other states that need him. That's a problem I was comparing with Beck in March or April, Wright had done better dimension. We're not doing a super job during the testing as well, Well, I'm with you on the testing, and they and the containment. It's just a question of Why aren't we doing it? There are multiple reason one if people are still resisting the idea ofthe isolation and quality scene and the other financial Many Asian country. I don't know much about European country mediation country like Taiwan, they when they have a mandatory quarantine, isolation, government pay for the costs and company people. The example of Taiwan in their quarantine and isolation. Everyone who and the quarantine everyday received about equipment to certify us started per day for 14 days. So people who need to be quarantined need to be compensated because they lost income and we're not able to do that. I know we're on our financial crunch. So it's both financial reason but also political social reason, because people are not waiting. Yeah, I would have to be afraid, though. Doctors at the AA liberal Mike what would fake Corona virus just so he could sit at home for two weeks and get paid by the government? But there's you know, there's the question of you gotta have the test and it's got to come back positive. So I'm with you. I think a lot of listeners were with you test and contained testing contain, And maybe that's what they should be trying to come up with. In the way of money in Washington, D C right now, the World Health Organization says We should not expect a miracle where a vaccine is concerned. Are we being spoon fed in folded a cure A vaccine, If you will make may not be what we think it's going to be. So that I have some reservations because we still know ability to about the vaccine because there's no effective action available yet. I think I just saw the news. Russia has a plan to have a effective action by October, and we don't know how safe it is, but I think they're waiting between safe and effectiveness. For the U. S. I think the earliest might be the beginning of next year. And I cannot say anything about how effective it is because we haven't seen that yet. We don't know yet, but most likely given the nature of the disease, even an effective vaccine. The immunity may not last very long. If the image can last up to a year. That would be wonderful, but most likely will be somewhere between six months and 12 months. That means we may need to do more than one dose of

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