Kansas's Abortion Swing Does Not Mean a National Win for Democrats

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As New York Times reports, consider far western Kansas, a rural region along the Colorado border that overwhelmingly votes Republican. In Hamilton county, which voted 81% for Trump in 2020, less than 56%, chose the anti abortion position on Tuesday. In greenlee county, which voted more than 85% for Trump, only about 60% chose the anti abortion position. The worst wing areas that swung left, cities and suburbs, there were some people who showed up, turnout was pretty high. It is also true, however, that the turnout being this high was for a single issue. Not necessarily for a presidential election or for a gubernatorial election. So a lot of people voted on this particular referendum who did not vote in the democratic primaries, for example. And so you could see something very similar happen. Let's say the Democrats try to stack state ballots with abortion referenda in an attempt to get people out to the ballot box. Well, it's quite possible. We'll split their ticket and they vote in favor of the things the Democrats are proposing if people agree with what voters just didn't in Kansas. And then at the same time, they don't vote for the actual Democrats. The notion that this is going to provide some sort of inflection point for Democrats going forward, I think is wrong and I think it's even more wrong because the federal Democrats feel the necessity to get out over their skis on this thing. And what this did, what the overturn of roe versus wade did, is it relegated this back to the states? Well, we just saw as a state like Kansas. Sort of unpredictably decided that it was further left on the issue of abortion than people thought it was. How exactly is that a, how exactly does that mean that role being overturned was a massive problem for the states? Obviously it is not. Now Kansas is actually getting to decide for itself. What it wishes to do on abortion, which is called federalism. But Joe Biden is trying to ref federalize the issue. He's trying to take it up again, re centralize the issue, which I think is actually not going to be particularly the popular. And the reason I think that's not going to be particular popular is because, again, people in Kansas may be worried about what happens to them in Kansas. But why exactly do you think that that's going to motivate them to vote on federal abortion legislation that applies to people in Alabama? What makes you think that everybody wants this to be a national issue predominantly when the Supreme Court is very unlikely to allow it to become a national issue in the first place.

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