Grinding to a Halt


It started off initially the night trump head incorrectly of course he incorrectly announced the travel ban into the US which turned out not to be a full ban at turned out to be limiting non residents and and non-citizens into the US. And we were trying to keep track of what routes were still operating routes. Were suspended which the time was a pretty doable concept but it so quickly morphed into what airlines are operating what capacity and what airlines are not operating at all for the time being and on top of that which airlines will never be operating again. Which is something. I expected to be tracking this week. Yeah I I mean when when you sent me the initial Spreadsheet and said. Do you want to help and I said sure that seems like something that we can kind of keep track out and look into schedules and things like that and then that just became an impossible task to to track individual rights when when airlines started moving towards. We're going to reduce forty percent of our capacity fifty percent sixty seventy eighty and now. The top of the sheet is just airlines. That are not operating flights right so we are currently tracking forty two airlines. That are completely one hundred percent grounded either now or in the very immediate future at ranges from tiny little Air Antwerp all the way to the bottom of the list. The Yemenia Airways sunwing in their Philippines Montenegro locked jet to Egypt there Cayman Airways Airlines from every region. All over. The planet have ceased operating entirely. And that's not even considering airlines at our ninety nine percent grounded such as Ryanair. Sas who have tons of group as a whole believe is ninety. Eight percent cut Air France. Ninety percent. Cathay Ninety percent tap ninety percent. Norwegian eighty-five doubt. They see the other end of this crisis. Korean Air Eighty five percent American Airlines fifty percent as of now but that will probably be going up. Some of the domestic. Us airlines are doing slightly better. Jet Blue has cut forty percent Hawaiian forty percent spirit down to twenty percents southwest really only twenty percent right now the Middle Eastern Airlines. Haven't done all that much. I believe guitar is just a five percent cut right now and I haven't heard much of Andy had or or Emerets but it is truly a global without exception circumstance right now. Yeah so we've started tracking since this began to sets of numbers. We've always tracked our our daily statistics so the total number of flights tracked we all. We've always kept track of that We've recently expanded things on the site to to give a better picture of that. We went from thirty day graft to a ninety day graph as well and we've also edited a moving average there to kind of keep track of things are headed for the first time so today's the nineteenth on the eighteenth of March that was the first time global tracking went down So we are now one percent below where we were at the same time last year. And that's the first time all all the the total number has dropped down. We've also started keeping track of what we're calling commercial flights so those are are scheduled passenger and cargo flights and those numbers are nine percent below where they were last year and and that is an and so that's not nine percent below where we thought they would be or were they were projected to be because I was looking at four point one percent increase for passenger traffic this year and I think a two percent increase for cargo traffic this year so nine percent below last year is an even bigger drop than than what we would expect to have seen this year all things being equal yes so everywhere across the globe capacity cuts in an actual fights operating is is pretty stark this year. Yeah and it's only I mean the will post a graph in in the show notes. But it's were looking at total flights tracked you know in the Below the twenty. Seventeen range now So we've I mean wiped out real gains in in less than a week and and that's going to that's going to continue as airlines wind down it major airlines down a vast majority of the operations looking at the US Delta American united are all parking aircraft at various airports around the US Delta's moving things to to Birmingham Alabama and Miranda Penal Park in Arizona United is using Victorville And also their hub airports The the new Berlin airport is finally getting Getting some use with storage for Lufthansa's fleet So that's a I guess you know an interesting move but they've got That positive note or just some. It's just it's just a data point that I mean it's airlines are soul. Looks like a parking lot Frankfort looks like a parking lot Vienna looks like a parking lot. The these things that you know they just seem so unimaginable a few weeks ago in this this you have no idea. Nobody knows what the outcome of this is Especially in Europe where this is particularly impactful airlines were already teetering on the edge a lot smaller airlines stopped operating. Recently a whole bunch of others were not in the greatest financial health. I wouldn't be surprised if several if not many European airlines do not survive this I mean flyby was the first domino to fall and that was the very early days of this whole outbreak We've had a couple airlines in the US that were about to start thinking about closing down. Maybe towards the end of the year Translate Airlines and now compass airlines have both decided The the Kutcher so dire at this point that they were going to ramp down towards the end of the year and they've decided what we will do it now because we're not fighting for anything right. I mean it's every new is already a sad situation with airlines shutting down in translates thankfully there was going to be some shuffling there but now I mean who knows and the one thing that has been pointed out I think is with all of these cuts keeping crews proficient and rated to fly. Whenever we do start flying again is going to be an interesting challenge. I was reading a bit about that this morning from a pilot who was concerned that that they weren't going to be able to to restart because they wouldn't be able to to legally operate the aircraft. I mean there's layers upon layers upon layers of things that no-one knows how this is going to work. No one really understands the the full impact of this and we're still kind of grappling through some of the minor in

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