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Breaking Down Super Tuesday's Results

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Have Texas called in the last five minutes by the Associated Press Four Biden which was a slight surprise. I mean this was something where it was looking like a sanders victory up until a few days ago the polls were deadlocked and what happened is in the last three or four days Bernie Bernie Sanders Lost a lot of states that he was slated to win and Joe Biden consolidated a significant chunk of the Democratic Party. So is this a two-horse race? Yeah I mean I think the question is is it a one horse race There there is a possibility that Biden will create an insurmountable lead Going into next week Because one thing that's also very striking if you look at the results is that Biden performed everywhere except for the places that had high proportions of early voting in other words. Four people voted before south. Carolina's results were known and the narrative was that Biden's candidacy was flailing and Bernie was ascendant. So in in everywhere else Biden really over performed in a big way. The other thing that's very important to note is that Sanders argument throughout this campaign has been that. He brings new voters to the table new voters to the ballot box and that simply hasn't been shown by the data and in fact last night everywhere where turnout was up dramatically and it was up dramatically in some key states biden one big so for the narrative that we need a large coalition to beat. Donald Trump in November. The data is showing. That Biden is doing that and Bernie is not and if you're Bernie supporter. I can understand that it's something that's a difficult pill to swallow but it's what. The empirical evidence is showing through these Super Tuesday results. I mean because sound is slightly scary for some voters because of the socialist labeled but he's not really socialist in the sense that we would understand it. That's right I mean. I think the when you think about this from a UK perspective. There's a lot of Corbin. Comparisons Bernie is not Corbin. He's not nearly as far left as Jeremy. Corbyn but the US is not as far left as Britain. The US is right of Britain. And I think what's also crucial to keep in mind here is that the twenty twenty race is going to be decided by six. Maybe seven swing states. And when you look at which ones those are. You're talking Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin Arizona. Florida Georgia those states have very little in common culturally. The one thing they have in common is that they're ideologically moderate and so when you look at places like I'm from Minnesota which trump lost by one and a half percent whether Bernie is socialist or not. That label is highly unpopular in the mid west. It's highly unpopular in places that are ideologically moderate. And so I think that you know Bernie was going to face. Some serious roadblocks to winning in November against trump with some of those label. Some of his comments from the past. That wouldn't have played well in the sort of you know bread and butter mid West Swing State voters who are ultimately centrists so Tuesday was going to belong to Bloomberg if we believed Bloomberg. That clearly isn't the case. Is he still in with a chance? And if he's not might he take those vast funds and place them behind some other candidate? Your answer great question. I think this is one of those things where you know for Democrats who have divided opinions on the candidates. I think the last night in America was a victory for Democracy with a small D. Because it showed that money can't buy elections. He spent a half a billion dollars. Five hundred million dollars and lost everywhere except for I think American Samoa. An overseas territory. So what Bloomberg is likely to do. I mean I've seen reports who knows what will happen by senior ports. He's going to reassess his candidacy tomorrow. if he's smart and his advisors are smart. He'll drop out Wednesday morning. Us Time and throw his billions of dollars behind whoever the Democratic nominee is and I think just to you a scale of how rich Michael Bloomberg is. I did the math on this if I gave you. Five thousand dollars a day every day. Three hundred sixty five days a year. I would have had to start doing that in thirty two. Thousand B C Twenty. Two thousand years before the woolly. Mammoth went extinct for you to have as much money as Michael Bloomberg today so he has a lot of cash and that cash is going to go very likely behind. Joe Biden's candidacy in the coming days and very much the sharp end of the Spear Against Donald Trump going into the general election. So before we get onto what I suspect is really very good news. Just a quick chat about the other candidates Elizabeth Warren and you'll see above who are still in the race. I mean seem not for much longer. Yeah I expect. Warren will probably drop out tomorrow. Tulsi Gabbard Should have dropped out months ago. Chelsea Gabbert has a constituency of exactly one person in that person's name has Tulsi Gabbard But you know Warren Warren I. I've been surprised by. She ran a formidable campaign. She's extremely smart and has done a great job in exciting of voters about her plans. So I would expect that there will be a push to get her endorsements For either Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden. I also think that the the Democratic nominee would be very wise to pledge to bring Elizabeth Warren at at a minimum as a core adviser for the campaign the administration And possibly as vice presidential candidate or a senior adviser in the I also I mean the piece that I'm writing for the Washington Post. This morning is going to call for Biden to come out with a vice presidential pick now and I think the reason for that is because the party is divided between the sanders farther left wing and the Biden more centrist moderate wing and binding could go a really long way if he announced somebody like Elizabeth Warren Kamala Harris Stacey from somebody who fires up the Progressive Wing of the Party And and causes who are a little further left of bite into say you know what he understands us? He accepts that were part of the coalition to win and he's going to be running the candidacy that speaks to us. Not just to the moderates and of course the bottom line is who can beat trump. And you're of the opinion. That could be done. Yeah I mean I think this is something. Where were if you look at the swing states? That matter in November Biden is somewhat tailor-made for those states And there's been this narrative since two thousand sixteen because the political class so to speak was surprised by trump's victory that there's the secret sauce. That trump has that. He'll win no matter what but if you look at the polls. I mean most of the national polls have Biden up by eight points to nine points against trump and keep in mind. That trump was so worried about biden beating him that he able to get impeached over it. Dry trying to trying to damage Biden. And if you look at trump's tweets he is trying to say you know so. Division on behalf of Bernie saying the Democratic Establishment is trying to Rob Bernie Sanders supporters of their victory. Simply because he thinks that the way he wins either with Bernie candidacy over the divided party. Keep in mind that the the Democratic Establishment did not rob Bernie Sanders of the voters. The voters robbed Bernie Sanders the voters in this time because You know he he. Simply he lost the race You know ran I think fairly squarely one thing. That's very interesting to note going forward if Bernie decides to stay in the race. Even if next Tuesday's results are not favorable for him is that in two thousand sixteen when Bernie Sanders was trailing the delegate count. He said that it should matter. Only if you get a majority of delegates not a plurality he was going to fight to the convention and try to say though pick me as the nominee even if I don't have the most delegates this time around when he's had the most delegates when he's been the lead he said the exact opposite he said. If you have a plurality of delegates you should be the nominee will. We're headed for a scenario? After last night in which Joe Biden goes into convention potentially not with a majority but with a plurality and Bernie Sanders is on the records. Now saying that person should be the nominee so he may end up regretting Those words but it is. It is something that sets a precedent by which even if Biden does not get over the fifty percent threshold. That the rules say you have to. You could have his main opponent on camera many many times saying that effectively. If he's got the plurality he should be the nominee. I mean. A gamer of then Biden may yet beat trump. But we're assuming that this will be a fair fight and of course. There's nothing that you can see him about trump. We do not know how how badly he may try and ski this race. Yeah I mean this is why prognostication is a very dangerous game in In Two thousand twenty is that you have a lot of things that trump is going to be willing to do to break the rules. We we've seen that. I mean he was impeached because he tried to use US foreign policy and hundreds of millions of dollars to get a foreign government to investigate a political opponent in two thousand sixteen. Of course he called to jail his uplift his political opponent And and of course there's going to be the wildcards of Russian interference information more at CETERA. But there's also the wild card of the corona virus and how that's going to affect the race which causes some serious uncertainty forecasting months if not weeks into the future and we don't know how that's going to shake out but yes I mean I think if you're looking at places where trump is vulnerable and where he needs to win. Joe Biden is the candidate who is more like voters in those states than Bernie Sanders. I mean is something where you know in Minnesota where I'm from a neighboring Wisconsin. Both States Democrats need to win if they WanNa win and twenty twenty. Those states are not the ones calling for a socialist revolution outside of potentially progressive core in the urban centers. And what Biden did last night. Was He brought suburban voters to the polls and those people are the people who propelled the Democrats to the twenty eighteen victory in the house. So you know it's about building. A coalition of Progressives ideological moderates and even some Republicans who thank you know what trump is not a safe pair of hands to have when the country is facing a crisis like it is with corona virus. I think that might be the argument going forward. Brian. Thank you very much indeed. That's Brian Class in. Incidentally it's the first time I've seen him smile since two thousand and

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