Trump and Pence say they see signs of US COVID-19 outbreak stabilising

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Daybreak president trump vice president pence say they see signs of the corona virus outbreak stabilizing we are joined now by Dennis Gartman the economist a formally of the Gartman letter Dennis it's always a pleasure thank you for taking the time with us this morning we are seeing stocks higher today because of that optimism that we've been talking about this morning coming out of the White House what is your reaction to the move in the markets and is that going to last well I doubt that a show last very long there's no the markets have a tendency to to rebound fifty percent of what they have lost in in in in bear markets and bear market rallies tend to be very dangerous and very swift very volatile the fact that we have the the Dow trading into a trip down futures at twenty one seven hundred right now twenty one thousand seven hundred can we get to twenty four thousand in the next week or two on a technical bounce of course we can but are we likely to see new highs in the near future now or not I think this is a dead cat bounce one that can be played on the long side and I think that last week's lows if you're going to be a buyer you put your stops order stop order then at last week's lows but so this last for more than a week or two I doubt it one of the problems that we haven't come in in the in the stock market is a great buyer the then companies themselves have been buying their own shares for years and years have basically been precluded from buying some buying their shares back for years and years into the future so the great buyer is gone but is this a good bounce yes can be traded from the long side yes should you traded from the long side I doubt it and if you wish to be longer stocks better to be short of the bond market that's probably the better correlative trade as the oil did give up some of last week's rally it does look like it is starting to pare back some of those losses Cruz lawyer lower although what what do you think of oil prices turned the corner I doubt that oil prices have turned the corner also but but again just like the stock market a good bounce was required a good bounce has been had and watch the without getting too esoteric what's that the term structure the shifting nature the front month versus the second third and fourth month back beginning early last week when crude oil is on its in in the dinner on the downside the the the term structure began to now which was the first bullish sign here we have the the the the market having rallied from one nineteen ninety in nearby WTI to twenty nine dollars a day per barrel which is a huge balance if you think about it today the term structures actually turning somewhat berry so I think the the the rally in the crude oil market has probably run its course and if you're going to trade crude oil trade from the short side nitrate only from my own account my retirement account I'm in the market every day I don't have any crude oil position on right now but if you made me do something at the short of it the president has said that he doesn't think he's going to have to impose the tariffs on imported oil but he's also holding that option in reserve what would that do well that would clearly tighten up the with the WTI Brent spread you'd probably take WTI to a premium over Brent I think it would be an illogical and very badly designed very bad decision on the president's part any talk of any tears in any instance it's going to be deleterious to whatever to the to the to the stock market that ostensibly to the crude oil market dramatically but it be beneficial to WTI so if you if you're if you're a believer in putting those tariffs on probably the trade you want to put on his long WTI short brand but then I going to do that on my own account now it's your money well bonds are the haven of choice for a lot of people are they getting too expensive now bonds are way too expensive I I had I see no reason why anybody would want for the long term down ten year treasuries with a sixty five basis point handle sulfur again I trade only for my own account and on Friday actually went short modestly mater marginally small tiny for the first time in a long time but I'm actually short a little bit of a long and and my propensity is to add to it because I I do think if we get a a good technical bounce a good dead cat bounce in the in the stock market you'll get a correlative decline in the long end of the yield curve so I'm trying to get them short of the the bond market for my own account and thinking of adding to that position this morning I just can't imagine anybody wants to own for ten years a treasury security that has a sixty five basis point

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