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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Other bad economic news for the trump election campaign president trump's own treasury department has been forced to admit up that the US annual budget deficit is now more than a trillion dollars a year candidate donald trump ran for president promising to completely eliminate the budget deficit by balancing the federal budget every year and then completely eliminate the national debt but in fact president trump has increased the national debt from nineteen billion dollars to twenty two trillion dollars and there are more troubling suggestions of the possibility of a recession hitting before the two thousand twenty election Jeffrey gridlock chief executive officer of double line capital said we should be on recession. Watch before the twenty twenty election good luck doc said Thursday in London. We're getting closer but we're not there yet the odds of a US recession before the election are seventy five percent said good luck and leading off our discussion tonight Mark Zandi chief economist of Moody's analytics as an economic adviser on John McCain's two thousand eight presidential campaign and is currently advising some some of the Democratic presidential candidates on economic issues and also joining US Jonathan Altruism columnist daily beast in MSNBC political analyst jumping covered the economic problems of the two thousand eight presidential campaign President Obama's efforts to bring the country out of recession in his first years Mark Zandi. I want to start start with you and your view of what the job loss what the effects are of the trump trade war. It's doing a lot of damage. I think it's fair to say that manufacturing The act sector the transportation distribution sectors are already in recession and the problems are starting to broaden out. We're seeing job. Growth slow in many parts of the economy slowdown has been very pronounced since this time last year when the trade really got go war guy going in if growth slows any further we're GONNA see unemployment starts to rise and once unemployment starts to rise. That's the fodder for an economic downturn because that spooks people they sense the rising unemployment. If you're open job positions less opportunity smaller pay increases less bonus they I start to pull back a bit on their Spending businesses see that they start point back more on their hiring. You can see Lawrence how you get into that self-reinforcing negative cycle which is a recession so we're not there air yet but the trade wars doing a lot of damage and if the president continues on the current course we'll get there pretty soon and Jonathan. We saw the trump reaching for Ernest gape patch to commemorate the seventieth birthday of a communist dictatorship. He has decided to delay delay his the his tariffs all of which are illegal by the way they are. He is using a clause inside trade law specifically for national security and there's not a single national security element in a Chinese clothes washing machines being imported into the United States or Canadian steel being imported in the United States so forth so these are all illegal tariffs that the market seems to have assumed would go away as soon as they became a political problem but donald trump is still holding onto them well. He's the master of disaster and he's never consistent any issue and traders among them. He just goes back and forth back back and forth the question now is whether he sees his reelection flashing before him and if you look at Mark Zandi numbers he he says nine hundred thousand jobs under the current tariffs. If the new ones kicked in in October it would go over a a million jobs and that's a pretty good talking point for Democratic candidate right plus who ran Barack Obama's successful of two thousand eight presidential campaign urged all aw of the Democratic candidates all of them to us exactly what you just said to us Mark Nelson tonight only one of them right so that they would next year. If if the tariffs continued I think and I don't WanNa make these sorts of predictions about trump because he's so unpredictable but because his reelection is the only thing nobody cares about there are some signs in recent days that he is looking as you said for an escape hatch and so they're going to put this all in reverse but at then puts Xi Jinping Dr Recy- right then he has trump exactly where he wants him and you have another situation where this guy proves used to be a disastrously bad negotiators so he will try to go back to the terms that they had in May when they can't close to having a deal. We'll see see whether Xi Jinping accepts them. He's got his own problems in Hong Kong. He has his own incentives to want a deal and there's some reporting out of China that had you know insiders are saying that he doesn't WanNa see trump lose his temper so he may be trying to placate him so they may have kind of fig relief trade deal to reassure markets mark ward about the Chinese economy and their ability to just hang on for eighteen eighteen months and hope for new president yeah good point and the advantages that Chinese has a and I should say the trade war is doing a lot of damage here. It's doing obviously obviously a lot of damage there. The Chinese economy is struggling but the advantage they have is that they have a lot of room for monetary and fiscal stimulus. They can lower interest rates. They can ramp up infrastructure spending they can cut taxes and they're doing all of the above and they're doing it very rapidly. I mean they don't have you know the problems that we have is democracy to get things done. They just do it and so that's supporting their economy and they're still hitting their targets. you know a lot of questions about the validity of targets but they're you know they're pretty close so so. I think because they have that latitude on monitoring fiscal policy they're gonNA. I think they're gonNA play this. played a little longer game here and I don't think they're going to agree to anything substantive until after the election I mean I just I think they're going to wait and see how the election plays out. Jonathan read just one word in there that I said that I really want to emphasize for the audience. You don't want to get in a trade war with a dictatorship. No one in China China is worried about their their approval ratings in government in this situation. Donald Trump is the one who has political risk. It's but it you know we're not sure whether she wants trump out of there because he's so easy to manipulate that he might WanNa do trump a favor and come up with some kind of a deal because he could have his hands full with President Warren or President Biden or somebody else was not as much of a sap and not as out of his depth in these negotiations and mark there is after all a Republican publican primary now in the states that are allowing. Republicans say allowing a primary elections. I I would expect the other. Republican candidates to be making as much of this is they possibly can and in certain situations in certain states some of them might even get a hearing on the trump trade war then some of the Democrats get yeah good point the irony in all of this at least from a political perspective. The president is that the damage that trade towards is creating is mostly in those parts of the country that have voted very heavily for the president think about that agriculture the farm sector of course presents trying to mitigate the fallout of the trade right were by sixteen billion dollars in aid but that only goes so far and of course manufacturing I mean he was all about manufacturing and this is manufacturing on the front line. China's trade war is starting to it's. It's in recession and starting to lose jobs so I know this is really hurting. The parts of the country that voted for the president in the last election and one thing Jonathan President obviously doesn't understand about agricultural markets is that farmers aren't looking at a four year horizon. They're looking at a lifetime horizon and they're looking at horizon which many of them hope that their children will be running the farm after them that means market's having having a market matters to them much more than getting a government handout because their market has been cut off and wants a market is cut off it means. It's been the source for that. Market's been replaced by some other country right so remember. The farm belt is the only place that trump has shoe supporting seventy five percent in some of these areas so any kind of erosion. There is really damaging to him. Politically and your point is spot on just to go to a quick Carter administration example when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan Carter over Walter Mondale vice-presidents objections imposed a grain embargo drying up roll those Russian markets and farm us sending grain what happened Democrats get killed old for twenty five years and they're still suffering from you can go when people will still be talking about the nineteen eighty grain embargo because it's their livelihood so if you wreck those export markets as you're as you're discussing there can be really long term consequences for Republicans and mark talk