Racing Without Gambling

In The Gate
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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

I'm guessing you've heard of the Kentucky Derby Abi to this race that's run usually early in May we haven't yet talked about the Kentucky Derby this year but that's about to change as we're finally starting to get into rounds of prep races that will winnow the field down to twenty for the run for the roses on May the second so to help us do that. We bring in voice. We haven't heard on this show for too long and and that's Jonathan Listener who writes for horse racing nation. Welcome back Jonathan. So before we get into a few specific horses. WHO's impressed you the most so far on the triple triple crown trail? I think Dennis moment to start the list. Dentists moment strikes to lead right at the top of the stretch at Delta. Two lanes lead our three lately for the final final furlong. Dennis this moment with five length lead scabbard with clear sailing up the second but Dennis moment kicks off the road at the Kentucky Derby in a big way. He barely moved a muscle. That we we have it. RESTRAINING NATION DOT COM user generated Kentucky Derby contender rankings and despite his trouble that experience career dentist moment has not left that number. One spot. You talking about a grade three winner. Who was going to be the favourite the Breeders Cup Juvenile L. Stumbles out of the gate? You know he could be undefeated if you look back at his debut he lost his jockey was really no fault zone so he has the two losses and between between them. He's sandwich to really really nice. Looking victories including his debut at Ellis Park they won by like nineteen and a quarter lengths. I think it was so there's a lot of potential there and he's one that I feel like every once in a while you hear about a derby prospect before they make their debut and then we kind of latch onto them I wanna say it was probably roadster roadster last year because Baffert said he could be his next justify American Farrow and obviously it didn't work out there but they'll Romans has talked up Dennis's moment since before he he ran a race. And so we're we're kind of going to the same thing here As far as a couple of other runners eight rings also out of the Breeder's cup juvenile. He's a really interesting. One didn't really run his race. You know the last time we saw him but I think the way he's going to be handled this season. You have to keep paying attention trained by Bob Baffert. He's he's GonNa run him in the rebel at Oaklawn. And then the Arkansas Derby potentially there as well and then another one that you know kind of on the fence about that you know. He's got a lot of towns. Is Max `field scratched from the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He had a little bit of an issue. There it turns out we found out a couple of weeks after that that he had had a minor surgery for a bone chip. But he's not even in serious training now. Well he's he's he's apparently galloping No works yet and so I think they'll have to do the to A. Ah kind of schedule where you hope to get race out of them and then you have a more serious race which I would expect to be something like the blue grass stakes if everything works out well and he's undeniable town. I'm and I think he's GonNa win a major race somewhere down the road. I don't know if it's going to be the Kentucky Derby and then the other one I feel like it's gotten all the conversation is independence hall at at Independence Hall now makes his move. Independence Hall is the leader getting away to lead by two prints of Pharaohs has moved up on the outside. It's Bourbon Bay Independence All L. linked and a half as they come for the quarto prints of Pharaohs on the outside Bourbon Bay. It is independence hall with the lead and now a furlong to the finish Jose Ortiz showing them the whip now goes to work on independence hall. WHO has a three likely? Just a sixteen to the finish at. It's the constitution called Independence Hall. Tailwind Jerome by four Knights won the national stakes by open links came back and won the jerome. It was a little more workmanlike. But he's going to go. Oh into the new year here as another one of the favorites and if I could talk about one more that has sort of attracted my attention a little bit. It's this ancient warrior horse. I don't know what his path is going to look like. He's Jerry Hall android or for trainee. And if you follow racing at all the last year or so. You'll know that. He's SORTA become embattled. Dan from the strike. Group's tracks out in California But I of all these horses that have won maiden races and we'll be going to the stakes. I want to watch that one closely. He's moved him over to Oakland Park. We should see him in an allowance. Race coming up at the beginning of February and then from then on he should be on the Derby trail else. That's one that that I definitely want to see more of well. You mentioned Bob Baffert. And it's tough to talk about the Kentucky Derby Trail Without Bob Baffert and he has a lot more than the one you mentioned. There's thousand words who ran a big race in the low sal futurity. I'm a Roger Federer Fan but you have to give it up for an doll who is also ambassador trainee. Who looked really really good? So I mean you know Bob Baffert certainly knows how to get horses to the Derby mean how many of these prospects aspects of pan out. I see a path for all of them. To be honest. You know and we also have mentioned authentic. It's still authentic coming to the three the eight ball. He's been in control throughout leads by a length and a half to uncaptured hero. It's all authentic as they pass the quarter pole and turned for home authentic and complete Khaliq Command turning it on. He's in front by sex with a furlong left to go. Zimba Warrior and Assault Coast as authentic is putting on a show. Here is a little green gene shifting about but long gone authentic strolls home in the sham. He'll win by about eight lakes green. It's Grafton stretch and just kept going there and another extremely impressive Horse Nidal I. I wonder about him a little bit. You know we've only seen him one time on Sunday and that six and a half for a long race he he looks like Dortmund Ortmann if you go back to two thousand fifteen big horse. That wasn't extremely fast out of the gate but once he got into stride he went straight to the pace and never really let up there. Yeah it's not not really the kind of horse you want to win the Derby but I think you could get to the Derby and then thousand words certainly has every reason to move forward his last race. I think they had probably a little bit the too much blinker on him and he ended up going head to head with that no door that ran in the Breeders Cup juvenile second. I think it's SORTA legitimize both of those horses that they ran so closely in the future. But I think thousand words is probably at least a couple of lengths better then a no door. He just probably didn't see him in the stretch until Flavian Kinda guided him out and it's like Oh with the blinker. The horse realized he had something to run against a win on. So I guess when you talk about horses that I'm looking at in the new year. Thousand Words is definitely on that shortlist list to Jonathan Listener of racing. Nation is with us here on the gate. We've talked a little bit about the Breeders Cup juvenile which was a topsy turvy race. You had three big horses that we've mentioned into all had their problems that day. We haven't talked about the horse. Who Wanted Storm the court for trainer Peter Martin and that would be a very popular win in the racing business? As you know what chance do you give storm the court to back up what he did in the juvenile. Oh probably not much not a lot of black type in the family. I'm not sure if there's any black type from Stanley I'd agree wise. And then you know he was obviously the beneficiary of other horses stumbles in that race You Know He. He goes gate to wire was not really pressed a whole lot and at the same time. I think they took the blinker. They put their blinkers on. I'm sorry and I have not a fan of lemon. That put blinkers was on a horse at that point in their career. I feel like you should be taken them off so that they can relax. Prepare to go a little bit longer. I think that race and the circumstances just all all came together for storm the court and allowed him to upset that race. It's forty five to one. Whatever he ended up that day I'm sort of in agreement? I think with everybody else that the the the better Derby Derby prospect was no door and second in that race going forward. I want to mention because these races have just happened. Enforceable label for Mark Cassie. Who is not missed? A beat after a son norm went out on his own. He had been his father's chief assistant and enforceable. Really good winning the Lecomte. But we haven't seen too many Lecompte winners. Go on to run well in the Kentucky Derby. Where do you put me as a tap it colt out of a dixie union in marriage? The breeding is good. I put him a really high on my list. As far as forces will be in the Derby but I would not put him on my list of forces that I think can win the Derby and I say that because of his running style you know if we go back to almost every year that the point system has been effect and obviously gets rid of those pure your sprinters. It's the horses that can put themselves near the front at the beginning of the race and keep that pace up and never be caught by closers that tend to win the Derby enforceable enforceable is one of those closers. It's inevitable that he's GONNA run into traffic problem you know. I almost hope he sneaks into the Derby and everybody overlooks. Because I feel like he's the kind of horse could come into the super factor. That's probably going to be a really common line of thought. Though I mean I'm thinking a few months out but the soup perfect You know in the era of a favorites winning the Derby is as remain because it's pretty high minimum of really profitable wager for people nonetheless so yeah for me. He's a super effective player. I I I think he's GonNa be okay as the distance is longer obviously is a full brother Mohammed and a half years day. There's a lot there in the pedigree just really impressive on paper and it was good to see him run as well as he did you know He. He broke his maiden at nine furlongs last summer at Saratoga and it looks like okay. Here's a real two year old and I you know he ran into you. Go into a little bit shorter and the breeder security at keeneland and Max field because two things came together and got him beat but he's definitely better horse than he showed that day and it was good to see him back it up the trump

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