Listen: US, Southeast Asia And China discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia
"There's more investment coming into these markets. And despite we could global trade they actually gaining market share so mainland southeast Asia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore Thailand all being fairly resilient markets in this environment. And if you go to island southeast Asia, the Philippines and Indonesia. Trait dependent economies, but we still see very strong domestic demand growth, led by infrastructure in the Philippines, and consumption anisia. And actually, we have now elections which will likely be a catalyst for another round of we forms in in the coming months. Also boy sentiments, so broadly speaking everything that's happened over the past year off see on still standing strong, not really dente too much by the rise in us interest rates that we see in the past year. Volatility. FX markets actually underlying local growth remain Steph strong. So as you say in a sense, they stood apart a little bit from some of the key risks. We have cleared some of those risks and not completely, but the central banks have gone on hold the trade story looks like it's a little better set for the next couple of weeks and also global growth not so bad as we thought few months back. So for you. What is the biggest risk at the moment? So it's actually a little bit on the downside that we might see outside of the region seeing perhaps a slip up in growth. So in Europe, the is essentially a recession in manufacturing sector that spreads to other parts of the euro-zone economy, and that leads to rec- recession there that could be heard from Asia. And then you have always the US. Now, we don't think they'll be a recession anytime soon bought there's certainly a risk here that growth continues to disappoint and China is is accelerating. But it probably alone cannot hold up the roof for the rest of the region. And so we need to really avoid a shopper decelerating in in the other economies and that recessionary risk in the US is being flashing out in the bond market. We also head from defense Evans, not saying that the fed could cut writes, if NATO it's do you think that's likely that we are going to start to see an. Credibly dovish till coming through from the central Bank. We think the next move is actually down, but probably more like the second half of next year. So for the current year, we don't expect to move in either direction, but you may see long term rates in the US come down further. So the ten year, for example, continue to rally and actually means inverted curve. But. That doesn't mean a every session necessary anytime soon, I think there's been a bit too much emphasis being put on curving version and out quickly that leads to recession. So we think accede at inflation pressures remain, very low in the US, which will prompt the fed on hold. But you'll see certainly flattened further out and that provide some breathing space. Where emerging markets is dependent on. Into the local bond markets Frejus briefly if China is successful in moving loans to the private sector in the way from the SOS in property. Does it make a huge difference going forward? Sustained because the private sector is clearly the driver productivity in China's much more efficient so to extended more more so fuel to that sector. It should be positive for overall productivity and efficiency gained big question. Mark is. To do the Chinese authorities really have the means to pump the credit into the private sector. Lucky speak to you on TV in a couple of hours as well. That's Fred Newman, managing director co-head."