Seventy Percent, Fifty Percent, Yesterday discussed on Coronacast

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Hello this is. Corona cast a daily podcast. All about the coronavirus. I'm health reported teigen. Tulloch position journalist alter norman swan. It's monday the first of february. That's right and yesterday. We were mocking the longest stretch. Nationwide without any luck transmission since february last year was fourteen consecutive days. But we've seen that stretch broken With a case announced in western australia yesterday norman male cortel quarantine security guard in his twenties. Who was working at the sheraton four points quarantine hotel and w i has not surprisingly jumped really hot on the web announced a really tough five lockdown basically. No one's going anywhere for five days until they figure out what's going on so one case and a really tough five day lockdown. Is this an overreaction. Or is this the right level of reaction. No i think it's the right level of reaction and the mandatory masks as well and they've just done everything to get this under control. It's one person but this person's been to a lot of different areas potentially a lot of contacts. Luckily so far his flatmates were are negative and they would be the people most at risk so the may well be very little if any spread here. But you just don't know and it's possible that he's got the uk variant of the virus since the uk very was on. That was on the floor of the people. He was speaking after him so one of the things they're doing is they're canceling weddings for the next five days like you say this Mosques are expected to be in place and a lot of other measures that have been put into place in norman. You've said basically since the very start of this podcast. If people can bear the cost him on set far back that the way to get on top of these fires is to go in hard into going to ease their limit to the hardness and early. Nece that you are prepared to endorse. This is still within your your realm if you want to control this virus. There's only one thing that works when you really when you when you don't know where the virus is and that is a longtime which stops people coming in contact with each other and running the risk of spreading the virus. You got to keep the virus away from other people. So the lockdown is what works now. There's no question. As new south wales has shown that guerrilla good contact tracing high testing ritz contact tracing. An isolationist required does make a difference and can get under control. But that's taken weeks in new south wales when there's been no uk variant the uk variant as people listening to chronic will know eddie homes on from the university of sydney a little while ago. Is that the wuhan. Virus spreads from one person to about two point five the uk variant spreads from one person to about three point four. That's probably the best way of thinking about it. Robin the percentage is a fifty percent or seventy percent more contagious so it is a lot more contagious and remember. This is a virus that spreads in clusters rather than evenly spread through the community. That's why these venues are so important to come to actually pin down get tested. Who were at those venues at those times published by the west australian government so it could be like southeasterly korea and queensland where it turned out to be a fisher on nice vizner to have and they're able to lift the lockdown early and that's great but a three four or five day locked on is much better than some stopping and starting not controlling the the virus which is what they've done and look what happens and the other problem and w. unlike new south wales and unlike victoria is they haven't had any community spread for ages knives since early be early last year and so people had returned to normal soon. Can't expect them to kind of do half of a social isolation process. You've really got to pull the whole population back. And then just your sees it up for five days and the you know the good news is likely to be that there hasn't spread but it's possible has in which case just got to give under

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