Hurricane Specialty Hurricane Center, Michael People, Dr Marshall Shepherd discussed on Weather Geeks
I'm Dr Marshall Shepherd from the University of Georgia and I'm talking to hurricane. Experts may come at this from different perspectives and this is whether Geeks I want to geek out now. I WANNA Kinda Circle back to twenty eighteen. I mean you all know what happened in two thousand eighteen with various storms Michael which was recently upgraded to a category five <hes> Dr Nabala later. I want to get your thoughts on why that happened in the process would then I'll start with you there. Why did why was there a reanalysis? Why did we go? Why do we go back in upgrade these storms but I I want to get your thoughts on that and then I get both of your thoughts on what surprised you about twenty eighteen well? When I was a Hurricane Specialty Hurricane Center I did that task of reevaluating storms that Hurricane Center had handled operationally in fact every depression storm hurricane that the National Hurricane Center handles operationally they do a post event analysis for and write a full report on the the whole meteorological history the forecast accuracy the casualties everything about it and I had to do that for storms Katrina which was an extensive high profile Post analysis and a change in the category afterward and the reason that that has done is because you have so much more information after the factor in intensity estimation in real time is one-sided? You have information up to that time. After the fact you have all the information that comes in after after that to provide more context and sometimes with the benefit of more time more data and more careful analysis you come to a slightly different conclusion and that's commonplace. The Michael Changed Their Katrina Change Change. Those are just two examples among hundreds of times that the post event intensity analysis has been different. The change in Michael People might not realize is very very small. It was only five miles an hour. It's just that some firemen are changes are more important than others and it took it from the highest category four number that you can have to the lowest category five number but if the messaging the same right yeah and it doesn't change the overall outcome it but it's an attention getting changed and it shows you that high end for his just as bad as a as a borderline five and if you read the description in the report talks about how uncertain certain they still are because we.