Galois Capital, Alex Krueger, Luna discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network


Wasn't possible yet to make a worst is over argument on either front. Now it is at least possible. Remember what has been happening in crypto is deleveraging. Leverage in the system unwinding sometimes in quite painful ways is a derisking event, and with some of that risk unwound, some participants are able to at least consider risk that they couldn't a month ago. The eth merge trade is The Shining example right now of something that seems like a really obvious and easy trade that fund managers and traders don't want to have missed. That said, this doesn't mean that August will be full steam ahead. On a fed level, there is the gamble that inflation stays elevated and the fed starts advising that they're going to be real hawkish come September. We saw a bit of that going into the opening this morning, as over the weekend, central bankers had really tried to reinforce the fact that we were going to have to stay diligent to bring inflation under control. In the crypto space, the merged narrative is getting a lot more murky. The discussion is starting to shift to the potential for chain forks, questions of DeFi breaking, which protocols will support eth two versus proof of work eth, et cetera. Kevin from galois Capital One of the loudest people warning about Luna in the months leading up to that implosion is now digging in on the Ethereum community. Alex Krueger kind of speaks to both sides. He writes, yes, this is a bear market rally for now. Thing is, if inflation comes down fast enough, which is feasible, and Europe's energy crisis is not exacerbated by a harsh winter, also feasible, this could end up being the beginning of a bull market. No one knows as of now. That's why probabilistic spectators are already long. My base case scenario is as of now this lasts at least until the end of August and to go beyond that we'll need help from August inflation data published in early September. Most important upcoming events in order. Number one, September 22nd, FOMC. Number two, September 13th CPI. Number 3 August 25th Jackson hole. Number four, August 10th CPI. Expect markets to de risk IE sell off the days before each event if market is running hot into them. Then of course we have the infamous eth merge around September 19th. Now in a different thread, Krueger noted that one thing that could tank his assessment is if Nancy Pelosi actually decides to go to Taiwan. Current reporting suggests that although that trip is not on her official itinerary, that's exactly where she's headed. My guess is that this might be the subject of tomorrow's breakdown. But for now, that's where I see things where the month was and where we are going into August. The last note is that it's worth remembering that this is historically one of the lightest months for trading. Because there is less activity in the markets and less liquidity, small moves can be more exacerbated in terms of their impact on price, particularly in crypto, which means of course that everything could look a lot more dramatic than perhaps it should. So there we are Friends that was June and July and what I'm seeing going into August, but of course we don't know and there are a lot of X factors that could change things. For now I want to say thanks again to my sponsors next to IO, chain analysis and FTX for supporting the show, and thanks to you guys for listening. Until tomorrow be safe and take care of each other. Peace

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