President Trump, Fourteen Percent, Ten Percent discussed on The Meb Faber Show

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

When you look at presidents and you look at market history i believe it's abundantly clear that the american system gives the president much less power than people think the president has in ways that would impact markets and that well presidents do have impact we tend to make way too much of them this president particular for good and for bad people tend to make way way too much over because he's by any definition not archetypal traditional president but the reality is us constitution that have been limited power the president's limited power congresswoman power the courts and to turn it all into sort of a slow moving thing that makes it hard to get a lot done in a big hurry and once you're in a bull market and you recognize you're in a bull market unless you can actually identify the bull market ending the normal thing would be dec returns that are markedly above the average that would be more normal than not normal returns aren't the line i use in the line i use into bunker in the line i used in my only three questions book is normal returns are extreme average returns are are made up of the average of extreme return you gotta like extreme i think that's a great we we've actually used that quote attributed to normal market returns or stream in for listeners just to give it a little context and i'm rounding here to make it simpler because i i like rules with them but basically if you think stock market twenty plus percent years having about a third of the time it's a little more but zero to twenty about a third of the time in negative almost a third of the time again it's a little bit less but a year of that kind of zero to ten percent which is really what everyone expects most years is pretty rare it only happens fourteen percent of the time so i think it's a great example if you bracket that ten number that people look for with five to fifteen.

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