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So let's spread of credibility. If you do a credible pause, you enhance credibility your I'd expect sterling to strengthen against the major its major pairs against that backdrop if you deliver a message that says It says we understand how this economy is evolving. We're in front of the data. We're guiding the market Being reactive to each Each bit of pricing that they're saying we got a bunch of thugs asking questions of Jerome Powell here tomorrow. What question would you ask Jerome Powell? Well, I'd be fascinated to see what the And FOMC the come out in terms of long term R star. I think for me that's the key data point economic projections we get. Do they believe it's still in that two and a half to three and a half percent range given all way the out way to two years we're seeing potential Fed funds rate north of five. Have we reached a situation where actually the FOMC have got to throw in the towel in terms of long term R star and the repricing that that would have across equity markets fixed income markets markets. Do you think they're ready to do that. We'll ask the question. get a you You might might be surprised by their propensity to give you just didn't seem wanted to go there in Jackson Hole. Oh no. In the speech. It's the skill of the Bloomberg team to tease that out isn't it. Mike McKee is better than I am. Williams will go there. The New York Fed president. What's the guidance you would take from this might be going influence. So the degree with which a debate. You're right. Almost certainly you know J. Powell is far too good an operator to to to even get tempted into into that debate. The degree to which other members of the FMC can start to frame that debate and say actually part of and we've seen financial conditions loosen quite appreciably in the U .S. economy. Part of keep it. Yeah part of keeping those elevated actually is to have that debate in public such the markets can understand what that pathways for long term our style in the U .S. economy because at the moment the summary of economic projections do not tell you that story. Lizanne Saunders was brilliant on this yesterday. John looking at the Bloomberg financial conditions index it's screaming accommodation right now. This speaks to a phrase that Lisa used reacceleration and I think we're talking about the UK at the time In that conversation in that part of this conversation the prospect of reacceleration in the U .S. something that we've heard a few times from various guesses this current disinflationary trend is transitory. Would you go that far? Oh the dangers of using that word. Look there is no doubt I mean if we're talking in the context of the U .S. economy the oil price is more significant actually domestically in the UK the gas price is more significant which hasn't taken place or hasn't moved up in the same way. Would I? Look Look central banks have carved out in the last six to nine months a focus on core inflation and therefore are we now going to sort of pivot back to focusing on headline inflation and given the impulse seems to be through the oil and commodity markets that's going to be the first order impact in pushing headline it means like you feels like you're moving the target every single time the the data doesn't conform to your narrative that that's a very we're talking about credibility talking about the credibility of central banks you've got to be consistent through the cycle not just to fit your narrative if I could put you in a press conference right now wouldn't be the feds it would be the next Bank of England yeah decision in a couple of months time that decision is in November mm -hmm the November one with the news conference that is going to be what are those forecasts going to look like for inflation do you think well in terms of that this is why it's the opportunity to talk about how the relevance of gas wholesale gas on the UK economy being the more relevant one actually I suspect the the the expectations for inflation will actually be lower for 2024 that we saw last week from the ECB remember what spooked the the markets in terms of a north of 3 % inflation print in the eurozone in 2024 we go from the OECD today 2 2 .9 % in the UK I think the bank will back into that forecast a sub 3 % forecast for CPA because of the relevance of gas which on the two -year curve is about 80 % lower than it was in the summer of 2022 when UK macro became the front page story we had Yellen talking about it we told Larry Summers talking about it because of the mini budget but it was not just the mini budget it was the dislocation of gas prices and how impact that is on real incomes in the UK you're talking natural gas natural gas in America we would say petrol I I mean petrol we confuse that we say gasoline and yeah I allow you to translate my ropy narrative the leader of gas two hours we ago were talking about where does it hurt in the United Kingdom like where will it actually affect Bank of there it is John 757 per gallon two dollars per liter I also can't believe it's the the one -year anniversary of the mini budget isn't it it's Saturday it is Simon thank you always a pleasure always learn something Simon French there of Pandora Gordon if you are just tuning in welcome to the program your equity market on the S &P 500 is slightly negative we're down here by zero point now from Washington with the latest news around the world here's Nathan Hager Tom John Lisa thank you they are back on home soil five Americans who had been detained in Iran for years landed this morning in Fort Belvoir Virginia outside Washington DC it was a tearful reunion with loved ones among them with Siamak Namazi first off the plane after eight years in Iranian custody the nightmare is finally over I've dreamt about this moment and each time I've woken up and just think in disbelief like why am I dreaming these dreams are not happening and today and tonight happened it it happened after a politically risky deal President Biden allowed nearly six billion dollars in frozen Iranian oil assets to return to Iran to secure these Americans release day five of the United Auto Workers strike against the Detroit three automakers and UAW president Sean Fain is warning of a new deadline if there's no new movement from Ford General Motors or Stellantis we don't make serious progress by noon on Friday September 22nd more locals will be called on to stand up and join the strike Sean Fain with UAW announced that on Facebook live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios this is global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2 ,700 journalists in over 120 countries this is Bloomberg. 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