New Jersey, Taiwan, New York discussed on


Get this down one of these days and Mike Brennan. We're used to be in studio next to each other. And we have once again. I have calling in Fred Brown. Are Are Infectious Disease expert are epidemiologists are answered Dr Voucher you know so and He Works John Hopkins he works with Gosh states and countries, and on this very topic is. How do we deal with what's happening next in the COVID pandemic and so It's been two weeks since we talked and you were warning people before, but I don't think about carefully what you do on the fourth of July holiday. Unfortunately, it appears a lot of people. Did that do that and? spiking again aren't they. Yeah, yeah. We don't whole midwest sort of like this kind of. Around middle of June, things were going good, and then all of sudden just still all come back up again on us at after Memorial Day and a few big happy events, and all of a sudden. We're back on track you up. We're not as bad as south as southeast southwest California, though those guys never stopped. They just went like this the whole time. They, just send someone. S- number of cases yesterday chemistry. Yeah Right Susan. It's amazing. Yeah, and that's a problem because it's an elderly population and you know the virus, you're sitting there with divine the victims and it will at. They're going to have some real suffering down there at an Arizona especially. In the next three weeks hoping you know, the models indicate that people are starting to get aware despite the fact that government isn't responding quite as quickly as we were hoping that people is going to take it, we'll take them cells. They pull back a little bit, so we're hoping that in three weeks or so the new case rate will come down slightly, but it's plateauing at such a high level. You never went. You know if you do the math and they did it recently they took out. New York new. New Jersey and you know what happens if you take out. New York New Jersey out of the United States equation all right now. It looks sorta like this writing like this if you take out New York. New Jersey just goes like this. We have never really had a chance to control the virus and by control I, mean sort of getting to an in getting to be able to do individual care. Plans are always working at the population level. Always worried. Overwhelming the hospitals when that happens, the death rates just go. To fourteen times of the what they are normally unfortunately, but so, what did what did other of relatively wealthy industrialized countries that we didn't get this under control? While the three strategies you know if you if you look at the three strategy, there was a containment strategy is in the North Asia? Did that really well, so if you look at China? Taiwan Taiwan probably had the best. Time wanted what the next sitting right next to China they have lots of visitors Wayne, and our all the time, the number trust the Chinese much, and so they really at some two thousand and two with art with the SARS epidemic, they were really focused on trying to control epidemic. The only had two important seven outbreaks at four hundred seven cases and seven deaths. So that's that's sort of a world record for a country of twenty twenty million. So so they did really well what they did though is, they have very good contact tracing they. They had a lot of testing. They centralize all the testing. That's one thing we haven't done their affected the united, states, we haven't. Created scale in what we have one of the great healthcare of the country, but it's very decentralized and the trigger epidemics detect treat. Pandemics is to get the scale together. Get certain things in place and make sure that you you don't run short of testing especially, and we unfortunately broke that apart our PD. Pipelines were all individuals. Dates are testing pipelines. All became individual states. May Have meant two things number one. We never understood aggregate demand, so we never able to kind of get the demand right for our. For our. Great Manufacturers like three Am. A good signal for demand. And second, we keep having to go through learning curve how to manage exponential growth. So that's one of the big things you know. If your manager is sort, sit back, Zeno I'd better wait and take a look and see think about this problem for a little while before, but you make such a critical zoo. It turns out when you having a pandemic and you were going through exponential growth. If you wait a day, it can mean doubling the next day doubling problem so on, and unfortunately you know if you learn that once. At a national level instead of fifty times. At the state level, and can really make a difference and were unfortunately, governors are each intimate learning individually. Oh my Gosh! This is a little bit different problem used to and so I'm I'm to like seventeen states right now on every one of them. Has that problem you supply chains that are disaggregated and demand this that the the signals are are are probably put together and the second thing. Is that learning curve? Where oh my gosh today now he got twice as many cases I thought. Now. What are the governor's? It seems to be handling it well, and I'm not doing an endorsement for her. Just to be observation is our own Governor Governor Whitman so however that being said she's kind of threatening. Maybe crack back down again because the are going up right. Yeah. You know that so it's interesting. When I I did the modeling, so first of all I don't work with with Governor Whitman, She I still think she's doing. At the top ten job in the country when you look at the state, so you look fifty states if she's in the top ten definitely, and and I wish I was there, but I I I'm not so fool to school here, but it's interesting when I first started modeling, though the virus one of us bottles in the world I worked with in the past was the guy who helped me control eight, eight, one and the H, five N, one disease, a worldwide and what we did is we actually looked at the are are are not and. I decided to run those model for four weeks of work, but get hub now is to get help and as part of the natural of a lot of the discussions we have..

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