Party, Brexit, Boris Johnson discussed on Talking Politics
The had a great night they went from seven point five to eleven point. Five percent the national venture. No other party put on votes like that. But it was an absolute catastrophe for party. That's had some catastrophes in its history. Three where does this one rank. I'm I think it's pretty bad. But I think it falls more in the category of failed attempts of revival very expensive Hansen failed attempt at revival rather than a shock on the of the nature. Twenty fifteen twenty fifteen was the cataclysm in which are not only reduced to eight eight seats but only came first or second in about seventy seats and votes for guys. Croton does mean they are second in quite a few sees absolutely so the problem they they had in. This election was that they were trying to appeal to a remain. Voting electorate many of whom were in seats. where the dams were nowhere at the last election Shen particularly in the London area that made the election campaign extremely difficult one to fight? I think we might think that a more low key let them campaign in which just Winston had spent and more time in eastern button and the party had stuck with a second referendum pledge rather than going to revoke article fifty might have got the party. Fifteen or twenty seats cheats. Maybe a couple more percent in the polls I was thinking of you. And what you said about Jeremy Thorpe in barnstable defending a seat that might lose their four installing fiber optic cable and it might have been better than the Swinson battle bus but the basic prompt them for the DEM's is a structural problem that they are now back to being a relatively small third party in in a political system. MM-HMM THAT OPERATE SOLITUDE party basis. Remember you have their same peers. Really that the proper third party politics than in the Commons with fifty five fifty five. MP's I mean it's really interesting if you look at the eight seats the Lib Dem's held onto in two thousand fifteen. They've now lost six of them so whereas in a sense senses the Party received it from its high tide at the end of the coalition it was mainly holding on in places where individual and peas were popular an well-dug-in or there was a compelling kind of tactical voting case. They can make to squeeze the party. They are now in a much more contiguous ideologically and politically contiguous position in the sense that most of the seats where they are now doing well. remain voting seats in the southeast Oxford. West Twickenham Richmond Park and so on they did pretty well in South Cambridge proven that they didn't win the foot pretty well in at Wimbledon. There's all seats which they might win next time. So there is a case for saying that. There is a springboard for Lib dem recovery and but what they have done is effectively written off much of the Celtic fringe. They were previously the main rivals conservatives and much of Cornwall Devon Somerset voted to leave many of those voters. Were now not touch Lib. Dem's in any circumstances the last question when you look at this now. It was an auto election because we did an episode about. Is this the Tick Tock Collection System WHATSAPP election. It was Boris Johnson Kissing babies election. It was him the number photos of him with a fish or All you know in a in a butcher's or with his tie tucked into his shirt and then in the building you know like it was an fashioned election. That's produced an old-fashioned result. I'm sure that was a lot going on to which is was new but is not immediately visible the morning off the night before significance. That had we talked about the ROB Delaney video that we're seeing twelve million times and here. We are with the Conservative Party. Having a I think that the late seventy eight hundred seat majority with Scotland and having gone in parliamentary time. So that's a big majority in England and done very well in Wales relentlessness of the messaging. That was that was different. It's just if you Lucht. Boris Johnson's twitter feed every two high many minutes. Utah have the same message different picture or something else and just went on and on and on I mean and it was like somebody drunk. Christmas party just kept saying I love you to somebody just rambles. But I'M GONNA. I'm just so I think you're right. Fail all trash into now. We're new technology tune was just how to continually repeat that message endlessly asleep and apparently I think on facebook anyway. Message went out to people in forty different constituencies saying yes they you are in one of the nine constituencies agencies that could save brexit. That seems to me to be a really good. People are trying to say it's illegal. I don't think it is illegal. I think you just is illegal. Gomo campaigning so my question was going to be though it both looks very familiar with it. Looks kind of mid eighties kind of politics and yet as we talk about. So much of this is not familiar that the Scottish question the role of the courts the possibility that we have a government that could be actually actually quite not radical but proactive on some constituent questions and Brexit to come and they will own brexit and they will bear the consequences of brexit unbalances. Familiar is are we still in pretty new territory. Do you think I mean in terms of election. Campaigning it was a textbook Tori campaign. They identified what went wrong last time. They replaced leader. They're attacked Germany. Kuban and the cost of labor programming. A classic sort of tax bombshell way. And saying that you know won't put two trillion pounds of spending would bankrupt the country and they identified weaknesses in terms of the impact of austerity. And don't want them anymore. Please chromosomal Xix. She's really simple stuff. It was a classic Lynton crosby campaign as well into crosby. Johnson's guru people email me overnight saying from Australia thing. Yeah we we've just had one of these two in every election as a moment a behind the scenes moment so with brexit was when cummings stood up and punch through the ceiling last sny apparently in conservative headquarters. They sang the Jeremy Corbyn Song but replaced the West Germany coping with Isaac Veto. The crosby proxy was put into run the campaign. But they're still some gains that I think aren't Joe's due to the nature of the campaign example. Is Ball's over where Dennis skinner is no longer going to be the beast of balls over will he may. Well be but no longer. Is there in pay and that for me was a real shock. I come from our area. It's an Mary where you'd never ever ever expect them to vote conservative particularly when they're so used to a real character. MP They all know he's somebody who's always in the community. Everyone knows him him knows him. Well known as a good constituency pay. Why did he lose his seat? Brexit let's the only real explanation if you go there and say we've had enough of this get brexit is it done. That's a very clear message to people in the area who voted leave. Who feel let down and so? I'm not sure how far some of these changes changes are due to Brexit and some are due to prompting police and promising nurses and promising to the changes and so in some senses. I don't think it's necessarily going back to business as usual. I think that's still hanging over us. A new think it was brexit and not Corbyn in Bolsa I would say yes brexit and on Scotland. But we've been here before we've had had a large number of empty. MP's returned all you find is that that doesn't really make much of a difference. When you've got a governing party with a longevity they can still get to do what they want so in all but not on this scale so there'd be large numbers but facing a coalition and then significant numbers in the eighties and some of the nineties facing governments with large majorities? But isn't this the first time you've had a huge. SMP Block and Assemble Party. Majority government but in many many ways exemplifies the point which is still doesn't matter that point you've still got a large number but the the big thing that matters is the the the party that forms government has majority and can do what it wants to finish. I thought the loss word on this should go to Helen. She and I have been talking about these things quite well now. We started this before. We were even talking Pulisic's when we put Cusco election but as talking politics. Exhaust slogan has been Kuban exclamation mark. I can never remember the order. I think it's trump exclamation brexit exclamation mark and felt for a long time that that was going to be the slave until the day we died. Well the Kuban bit is going to be shuffled off that India cools. The brexit has moved on. We'll deal with trump soon enough. Helen I kind of felt last night while watching it that you had been an indispensable guide to this. I I would have understood nearly as well where we might be heading without you and last night was in some ways. I think I can say this vindication of some of the things you've been saying over the past few years vindication of some of the conversations reasons that we've had on this podcast what's your what's your final reflection on it. I'M NOT GONNA ask you. Do you feel vindicated. But do you think the shape of British politics takes makes more sense than it did twenty four hours ago. I mean I think that I think I was the last election because I thought the what happened. Last night would happen in two thousand seventeen so meekly. It's like well. Why was wrong? Then what's the difference and I think that is partly because there was actually no prospects of Kobe becoming prime minister in two thousand seventeen so there were people. It could vote Labour without thinking that there was anything lycopene premium which might ensue from it and that was freeing thing at this time round that if your innocence was taken away from they voted they had to maker a harder choice but I think as well that the paradox folks of what happened. Last time we're brexit was concerned was that people in those seats will leave Isis. I mean in those seats who have crossed the conservative take majority last night thought. I think the Brexit was done before the last election and that they've been part. The point of Brexit was that it brought them democratic politics back again and sometimes I think that they thought they got the Labor Party back again and sometimes you democratic politics gear the Labor party because that's the way if they can see what democratic politics was. It was coming back home to them and so they expressed that by carrying on labor on them. What happened afterwards was that they were basically told me that they were still going about the referendum which had already been told by the actually the votes of the remainders who voted for the Labour party in two thousand seventeen despite fight it and stood remained party in two thousand seventeen in explicit accepted the result that their votes?.