Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky discussed on CBS Sports Eye On College Basketball Podcast
Or if your goal is to win the national championship, teams with the guard like this just don't do it. They don't get there. I went through the last 5 final fours. There's no team. That guards the way they guard that gets to the final four. Certainly does it. No team that wins the national championship. So that's a real concern. You know, I'm not saying it's impossible because anything's possible when you got Jade and ivy. And Zack Edie and trevian Williams, but history says it's wildly unlikely that Purdue will get where it's trying to get unless it improves significantly on the defensive end. Right now they're ranked a 116th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Ken pa. What that number tells us is that no matter what any other number attached to you says, what that number tells us is that you will likely almost certainly lose before the final four. Let's have a little fun thought experiment a week out our week out a month out from selection Sunday. So we both think that Gonzaga and Arizona are going to be on the one line when we get there. So we're going to agree on that. Gonzaga and Arizona will be number one seeds on selection Sunday. We both agree that. Who are going to be we're going to be the other two parish because the candidates would be auburn, Kentucky, Baylor, Kansas, Purdue is 5 duke is 6 that probably is it, right? My forgetting someone, I'm trying to look here. I might be it. Anyone else gonna sneak up? Probably not. Although Wisconsin's high on quad one quad two combined, they just lost a Rutgers, I don't know if that takes some of the conversations. But let's just for fun. So Gonzaga, Arizona, I will say, I will say, I'm going to take your point about auburn and I'm going to stick with it. You said they could still have a case to have the best resume in the sport now. They don't have to go play at Kentucky. I will say auburn is a one seed. If you win the big 12, how are you not getting a one seat? So I will say Gonzaga, Arizona, auburn Kansas, so you're one seeds a month from now on selection Sunday. Would you agree or you want to swap out a team in there? I'll swap out a team. I'll go Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, 'cause you win the big 12, you're gonna be a one scene. Gonzaga Arizona Kansas, Kentucky. How about this? No matter what happens Tuesday night in Knoxville. Okay. I was about to get a little too far out of my skin. I don't know what happens. Kentucky will lose one more game in the regular season. Win the SEC tournament and be a one seat on selection Sunday. That's my prediction on February 14th. Kentucky will lose one more game. This regular season. And they'll win the SEC tournament and be a one scene. We both got Gonzaga. We both got Arizona. We've both got Kansas. I've got auburn, you've got Kentucky. Kentucky does have at Tennessee at Arkansas at Florida remaining. That's tough. That's a little, yeah, no. There's a scenario in which it's neither and, you know, all the other teams I mentioned before are still conceivably there. But yeah, I'm gonna be that's gonna be a fun push fun chase. I think like a school was like duke. I think duke, 21 and four, you know, one of Boston college over the weekend, one of clumps and I know you talked about in the previous podcast. It's got wake forest at home on Tuesday night. Duke has at UVA at Syracuse at pit. Those are its remaining road games. Now it lost at home to Virginia just a week ago there. I think duke's going to have to win out in the regular season. And then we'll see how things kind of another duke lost, I think, because of its opponents in the ACC, a duke lost in the regular season, probably knocks it out. I tell you this, you can't get to 6 losses and get a one seat, not gonna happen. One 5 lost duke team can get there, but it's gonna have to rely on movement elsewhere, which would be intriguing because in most seasons you might say a duke team with 5 losses is like an automatic or one student. And I agree with you. And most seasons that would be the case, but I don't know about this season. But I think there's still a lot of teams still alive for it and that's what makes it fun. That's why I wanted to drop that on. And Providence, I don't think Providence will get there. But Providence, I believe is now ten and two in the first two quadrants. I know. The resume is strong. The computer number is not as much. In part because they play so many a lot of their wins are very close and they're two losses or blowouts. I just sort of laugh when I see people confused about why Providence computer numbers aren't what they think they should be. It's like not some mystery. They win a lot of close games. And they they're two losses are blowout losses. That's the explanation. It's not that hard to figure out. They're 9 and zero in games decided by 5 or fewer points. And I sort of made this point on Saturday. I get that there's got to be a luck element to that. I get that. There's got to be a luck element in there somewhere. But I think it's got more to do with it coolie. And his team, then just lock. Again, you can't win a national championship. With rare exceptions without getting lucky somewhere along the way. All right? Luck plays a part in this stuff. If you ask a coach who's won a national title, what's the most important thing that has to happen for you to do that? What they'll tell you is you got to be really, really, really good. And you got to be really, really, really fortunate. Those are the two things that are, you know, I remember talking to Billy Donovan about it. He was like, you know, if this shot doesn't go in this game, then we're eliminated in the second round. It's not usually enough to just be a great team. You have to be a great team that the brakes go your way. So there is a luck element. But I refuse to just chalk up what's happening at Providence right now. In these close games to luck. To chalk it up to that is to be dismissive of the roller coat plays in those moments of the role players play in the moment of the role of that pressure and calmness, play the role, those things have in those moments. No athlete will tell you that some people don't perform better under pressure than others. That some people aren't calmer and cooler in pressure situations than others. And Providence seems to be an excellent example of that..