North Carolina, National Hurricane Center, Bill Cairns discussed on MSNBC Morning Joe


Let's get right over to Bill Cairns with a look at the track. So Bill, we hear downgraded to a category two, but you're not letting your guard down that only describes the wins, and it only describes the peak winds. It doesn't even describe willy how far the woods. Extend from the center with this is a huge storm. It's a big storm. It's able to push more water and water is going to be the huge issue with this storm. Maybe we have less extreme wind damage, but the water damage is going to be historic anyway, so it doesn't really matter. The damage is going to be done. So here comes, there is the outer bands years, all the rain bands. Here's the eye of the storm, and here's the North Carolina coast. So it's going to be closing in on your during the day today. And then at sunset tonight is when I think the hurricane-force winds will be and they'll be with you about twenty four hours this time tomorrow morning. I think the I could be right over the top of Wilmington, North Carolina. Here's the latest forecast path and the Hurricane Center. This is two pm this afternoon. They have it as a strong category. Two, it may go up to a low end category. Three doesn't matter much. It's going to do the same amount of wit surge day damage. It's going to the same amount of rainfall damage the wind damage, five miles per hour one way or the other doesn't make much of a difference. So here's the path and I did a little line here. That's one hundred and sixty miles in thirty six hours. That average is four miles per hour. You and I walk about three to four miles per hour. That's how painfully slow. Oh, this storm is going to move over southeast portions North Carolina. That means extreme rain. As we go throughout areas of the southeast, then the biggest problem. The reason why I'm not focusing on the wind wind in this is the causes of deaths from Atlantic cyclones from the National Hurricane Center. Only eight percent of fatalities are caused by the wind. That's mostly trees falling on people or cars or on their residents, twenty-seven percent of fatalities from the rainfall, fifty percent or from the storm surge. So seventy five percent of deaths or from water with hurricanes. That's why our storm surge is one of our biggest concerns and we're still even though the storm is a little weaker with imacs winds, the storm surge has not changed still looking at nine, the thirteen fee. We'll be worried about the high tide cycles. And how about this for a rainfall prediction from our European model overnight thirty inches of rain in Wilmington Mika..

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