George Pickens, Breece Hall, Kevin Colbert discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
Think it's problematic. He was healthy last season. He played great. They relied on him to do all the carries. I think they're going to split it up a little bit more this season. And I think they're going to probably not have as much efficiency and going to go up against many more heavy boxes this year than last year. And injury factor two. You like that one house? Yep. I do. Of course. You know, in general, I mean, we know this every year, but just betting under on player props is usually the road home because they're always skewed because everybody likes going over and I would love to see an experiment. House, maybe you're the one who should do it. Just somebody betting 25 player unders. I feel like you would go like 15 and ten. Nobody wants to do it. It's like in America and just be like, I am rooting for failure, but I'm willing to do it. Can I borrow some money? All right. We'll talk after. What's your next player prop sharp? Okay, the next one is another under. I do have one over, but this one's another under. And this is breece hall rushing yards under 8 30 and a half. Look, it's Ben bent down, but it's been at 8 30 for like three weeks now. And I do not like what I see out of breece hall. He's averaging -.37 EPA per rushing attempt. He gained in the preseason. 2.1 yards per carry. He's getting hit behind the line of scrimmage far 12th and he takes too long to get going. And I think a large part of like the high expectations for hall was that the thought that they drafted him, what like 35th overall something like that, 36th overall. He was going to come in and be like the de facto number one guy for this team. But that's not even the case. They've got multiple backs there. Breece hall is not going to be the starter. And I just think it's going to be very difficult for him to get close to 830 rushing yards. I think on fando at one point, he might have been number two in offensive rookie of the year. And now he's dropped. He's 5th. I really, I'm so impressed with pierce on Houston. And I watched the preseason that first drive, but I've also been following. I've been a psycho with preparations here. He just has it. You can tell from the stores and stuff, like the coach, say he just gave him the starting job in the first week. He was like, this guy's gonna be our starting running back. All the stories from camp are like, this guy's incredible. He's 16 to one for rookie of the year house. That's fine. I'm in it. I have already spent money. I watched George pickens play one quarter of football and immediately jumped into that market. He's 9 to one. Yeah, that jumped. He is what a beautiful athlete. Holy cow, knock my socks off. So I had to get in on a little George pickens, but goddamn Pittsburgh. Every fucking time. This is 20 years of them just pulling out wide receivers of the second. That may not happen in the future, but yeah, they are Kevin Colbert was just so good at identifying herself. Nobody has ever been better at a random skill than Pittsburgh grabbing receivers. What's your fourth prop shark? My fourth prop real quick though, you said you've been a psycho with your preparation. I want to know how did consuming my 564 page book go for you on your iPad, not printed? Did you get through it in electronic format? Way better on the iPad. House and I are old and we don't read books anymore. I read on my electronic devices. To me, the book, the schedule rest stuff is the most important stuff. That has actually really changed the way that I prepare for the season. I've factored that. I have a separate graphic. I'll get this over to you. I did every single team in every single week and what the rest edge that is that week. So you can use it as a converter to be on that. That rest edge thing is just like unassailably effective year after year. There's no question. Here's one thing. Here's one thing I was going to do though because I want the listeners that your pod to be able to get a chance to look at the book, but there's no way they're going to be able to get through that thing in a much time because the season starts really soon. So I was going to give it to them for just $1. That way they're not wasting their money. If you go to the streets, if you go to sharp football analysis and enter code, let's say, Bill, I haven't done it yet. To be able to code BS. Okay, the code will be BS, just type in BS and you get it for a dollar. That way you don't feel bad that you got it so close to the season and you wasted $30 or whatever. Yeah, skim it. Take a couple of bathtubs with it. Bring in the tub. Just put your reading glasses on and zoom through it, like house does. You sure you can't make the code Mac Jones sucks. Are you sure you do that? That's not going to be the code. Yes, you missed, you missed. We shorted the Pats at the top. Oh, wow. All right. Bill was very objective about it, too. That was very past those. I am objective on my teams when it's warranted. And in this case, this patriots are not going to be good this year. Unfortunately, Kyle is just going to, I know it's killing him, but there's just not a huge case. Hopefully he's going to be keeping the stuff on me if the Patriots end up being good. He's definitely not going to stop hearing it for me. I would love for them to surprise us. What's your fourth prop show? Let me go to the last one. The last the tenth of ten, the fourth player prop, and this is an over. So we get a little bit of optimism cortland Sutton receiving yards over 900 and a half. I looked at this, sir. And here's my logic on this. I bet this as soon as they lost Tim Patrick. And when I look at drew lock and drew lock out of 33 quarterbacks the last two years, he ranked 33rd inaccuracy 33rd in completion rate, 32 in success rate, 30 and EPA basically like bottom 5 in every other statistical category. So I'm not going to share the rest of them. We know that Russell Wilson tailed off some in his career. However, before he heard his finger, I don't think people realize he was the number one quarterback in the NFL in yards per attempt last year before he heard his finger of the mallet finger on his throwing hand. Number one in EPA per attempt. Number one in completion rate, number one in passer rating. Number three most touchdown passes. Now you look at what has Russell Wilson's receivers done in Seattle. The last two years, his top two receivers cleared this with ease.