So, Is This a Bitcoin Supercycle or What?
I've been observing a lot of back and forth conversation this week about this being super cycle on the one hand or people pointing to top signals on the other and i want to try to break it down just a little bit for a fun saturday episode. So what's the idea. well first. Let's talk about the regular cycle because if there's a super cycle there's got to be a regular one right. The regular cycle is a very loose widely held conception of the crypto market cycle as one great bull year followed by three down and sideways years people point to two thousand thirteen to twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one. Now what you might ask. What caused a four year cycle like that. Ding ding ding. Of course the for your having schedule. There's a sense that the having creates a context for a larger cyclical affair where the new supply reduction creates more awareness more demand and ultimately that happens in the context of less apply. This is of course. Best expressed in plan b's stock to flow or s to f model which has both its share of adherence and plenty of doubters. But we're not here to debate. Plan b or stop to flow. Instead what i want to focus on is a theory. It has been most fully articulated by din held but is certainly widely this theory that bitcoin is moving into a new super cycle where the supply reduction around the having isn't any longer the dominant force in shaping. The bitcoin market cycle and where indeed roughly speaking bitcoin can just keep going up. The theory is predicated on the idea that some critical mass participants has been reached that breaks us out of the standard crypto. Buy and sell cycles. What's more the type of participants matter. The big institutions represent the driving force in this super cycle. They're acquiring bitcoin right now. Finally and for more than speculative reasons or maybe a better way to put it is that they're speculation is driven by a much larger macro sensibility. They are in other words. Investing on the basis of not the internal supply driven bitcoin cycle but on the basis of the larger debt super psycho playing out at the highest macro