Four leaks in three weeks - what's going wrong?

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So we have certainly sent somebody on the fifteenth of december to singapore. Covid positive. That could have happened. Well we don't know and we're trying to find that out and by the way if you want to know singapore's going pretty good. They got. I think one case in the dormitory area. And that's it's the other day so we keep hearing about this strain in the uk. That's more transmissible. I'm sure people are wondering whether that could be playing a role in what's happening here in australia. Or if it's that strain and is it more likely to be the biology of the virus all the way. Humans behave a free by yesterday. There were four reported cases in hotel quarantine of people who came in with that virus from the uk. It's not easy to test for because there's so many of mutations apparently but we know there are four what we seem to know. I think is that on the genomic so far none of the none of the viruses that have caught outside. Quarantine are that virus of though the nurses still a question mark at least by the time we were recording. This kurna cost. We don't know that yet. So there is science science behind this This mutant of the virus in the uk the suddenly a lot of mutations. There's one in particular the in five or one which we actually had in australia for a while but went extinct in australia. And another version of the virus came in but in fact it is the end five will one east quite infectious and in fact the door to institute is using that in five or one for most models of the virus because it actually is quite a good one to work within the lab so in five or one by itself does create a bit of extra infectivity. And if you look at the scientific report to the uk government scientists who were on that committee. There were various things that luke tat so one was the miracle. Ct which is a measure of the infectivity. The virus and that c. t. was lower which means that the infectivity was higher. The calculated are not jumped up to nearly one from from a much lower figure. Thirteen number of people that you would be likely to be infected by an infected person that was theoretical based on modeling. And so they had. Moderate confidence is what they said that the virus detach assume two percent increased rate of infants heavy but the unknown there was the influence of human behavior. So i think the us no question. You're dealing with the virus that is more transmissible than the other. Mutations that are around the question is by itself hikes. How much more transmissible is it. That's not really known yet. They're also doing tests on antibodies. To see whether or not this virus is neutralized by known. Antibodies from unionization. The evidence from the doherty is that the vaccines are broad enough to get that in five or one mutation but remember. That's not the only mutation in this particular in this particular fire so the news. Luke's if quite good there but the evidence is mortally strong according to his eminence committee looking at it that it is more transmissible its just seventy percent is fifty percent. I mean any percent is important. The other variable took into account was. If you've got not much virus around in a new virus comes in. I if you like. It's it's empty ground. It's like fair fair-trial soil that the new virus comes in and can take over because there's no competition. What worried them in this one was that there was a lotta virus. Huge amount of virus around in south east england and yet despite the fact that there are lots of other krona viruses around or sars cov two viruses around. This is to kover which suggests that in terms of at least infectivity. It was pretty aggressive and able to actually Paulviollis into Into the background. So that is wearing. There's a lot of circumstantial evidence that this one is much more assertive in its infectivity. They don't think it's more virulent. So that's the science around this particular strain in the uk which is really good to know but probably not effective with. What's happening here in australia at the moment. Not yet but we are bringing you back people from the uk all the time and some of them will be just by the fact that the highest density population in the uk is that southeast corner and the home counties and london. That people are gonna be coming back from london so when will krenek us down before christmas snowman. But we're not going on holidays just yet. No we're not we're not. We're going to hang around while this outbreak continues in new south wales and the rest of the country's anxiously looking and people all over australia hoping that their relatives from wheels can at some point. We're going to stay on air so we'll be on air on christmas day and we'll be on air next monday. Which is the twenty eighth. So we're still going to be around giving you information through this and helping through hopefully hopefully not hindering hopefully helping sounds like good news to you. Leave us a review on apple. Podcast if you can and we'll see tomorrow.

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