Vaccines are rolling out - so when will cases drop?



Now the vaccine rollouts have begun globally. How soon do we expect to see a corresponding drop in cases of covid and also in deaths. Well fun issued save at overnight yesterday. Israel at the moment is just newspaper reports but it comes from the israeli ministry of health and large health provider. One called cloudy another one called mcabe healthcare. And what they're doing in. Israel is that there are electrically recording. All the vaccines as we will do in australia but it's integrated into people's medical records. So they really do have very good integrated electronic medical records and in fact one of the reasons. They're getting so much vaccine from pfizer is that they've done a deal with they. Give the data back to pfizer. So they've got what's called post marketing surveillance in. They get dot back on the performance of the vaccine. So what they've shown on and what they're saying it hasn't been published yet. Is that after the first. Does i think it's roughly in about two hundred thousand people aged over sixty five. But in those people compares to members of the health funds who have not yet had the vaccine. They've seen a significant reduction. Perhaps a fifty percent reduction in covid nineteen infection not disease but infection so this people specifically yes because they're rolling it out in priorities so older people in federal people are giving it first before others get it as well and so. This is their first data. It's a bit like. I don't know if you remember meghan. But near the beginning of the pandemic britain used their coordinated electronic records centralized electronic medical records in hospitals to be able to huge randomized control trials on a vast scale during the first wave. They were able to show that hydroxychloroquine didn't work. The anti retrovirals for hiv didn't work but that dixon methods to steroid did work and the turned around incredibly quickly during that first wave and is this huge advantage when you have a population willing to accept electronic medical records and that's what the israelis are doing. So they've got records of people who have not yet had the vaccine versus people have so if you like it's a real world not quite randomized but it's a real world trial and again not published in any scientific journal. Yet the early indications are that pfizer vaccine after the first does is showing reduced transmission to a significant extent which is really great. Yeah because the focus when we're talking about vaccines is so about a moving herd immunity which is obviously something that lots of people very keen for for all sorts of reasons but this is a really fast positive outcome where you literally saving people's lives. Yeah it's early could be wrong. Still got to run the ruler over it scientifically but it is a good early sign and presumably reflects the daughter. they're handing back to pfizer. So israel is getting the fires a shot and we've also had reports over the last few days that a man in the us who got the a shot has died shortly afterwards. And i think some question marks around whether or not it was anything to do with the shot or chance. What do we know about that. All we know about his newspaper reports from the new york times of luton to it. So it's really impossible to be absolutely sure what's going on if the newspaper and it's an issue. If the newspaper report is accurate then this is a doctor who got it. And three days after the vaccine started to develop little red spots on his skin cope tiki and these are assigned that. Your blood isn't clotting very well. He recognized that presented and his platelets had dropped precipitously and they find it very hard to raise his platelet levels. They thought this was an immune reaction which was reducing. His platelets platelets the little fragments. Which are essential for blood clotting and it does occur to drugs and it has occurred with covid nineteen by the way so covid nineteen disease itself can cause a precipitous. Drop to your platelets and serious hemorrhage and they were about to again. According to the newspaper report remove his spleen. Which is where they presume that the platelets were being broken down but he died of a cerebral hemorrhage beforehand. So the question here is causing effect. Is it the vaccine or is it a

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