A highlight from How the balance of power in the labor market is shifting

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In los angeles. I'm kai rozelle tuesday. Today i do believe the fifteenth day june. Good as always to have you along everybody. I know it's not always fair. The load that is put on consumers in this economy. But somebody's gotta do all the spending and that gang is us retail sales figures came out this morning which is to us buying stuff at physical stores and online bars and restaurants as well down one point three percent april-to-may with especially big drops for some big ticket items. Now you'd think with where we are in reopening a backslide in retail would be a warning sign of trouble to come that may be or or maybe not as marketplace's mitchell hartman explains so i'm just back from a week of vacation first time i've flown anywhere portland to tampa to new york and first time. I've seen my aging parents since the pandemic kit for my trip. I got a haircut airline tickets rental car. All spending that isn't counted in today's retail sales. Report says ted rosman at credit cards dot com. This report mostly measure is good sales like cars computers appliances which consumers spent a lot on when government. Relief checks arrived earlier this year. But mark zandi at moody's analytics says as the economy reopened consumers are shifting from buying stuff to buying things like going to restaurants ball games. I went to my first movie in about a year and a half. In fact clothing sales surged in. May which ted rosman says is also a sign of this move to doing stuff. People are sprucing up their wardrobes. They're going back to the office getting invited to events again including weddings and graduations and family reunions and things where they want to look nice. The return to spending on a wide variety of consumer services is coming in fits and starts. Chris jackson polling firm. Ipsos says are increasingly confident as vaccination spreads but it's important to remember that most people aren't light switches where they just switch on and off and they do still have very real concerns so they're taking baby steps back into the world. It's likely to be some time before. All this consumer behavior shifting is done and we can trust a single monthly retail sales report to tell us what the economy's really doing i'm mitchell hartman for marketplace. I know y'all are sick. And tired of hearing about inflation. And the fed and jay powell i get it. I really do but ahead of chirp press conference tomorrow. There is something i wanna make. Sure your up to speed on because you're going to hear about it a lot tomorrow. As the prospect of inflation and higher interest rates dominates the economic news. Something called the dot plot. It's a communications tool for their form. Thomas lawrence is an assistant professor of finance at the nyu stern school business. I describe it as fomc members trying to throw arrows at a dartboard and headed where they think the center is. That's fair it's literally a short with dot on it where members of the federal open market committee. And that's the fomc. The professor laurence was talking about. It's where they make their guesses about when interest rates are going to start to go up. The fed doppler allows the fed to communicate disagreement or perhaps uncertainty about where the fed funds rate will be in the future. Yes it's a little bit of kremlinology. Some tea leaf reading. Welcome to my life but it does help us get a sense of what people other than jay powell or about interest rates and when they start going up wasn't nothing going up on wall street. The damning there was but it wasn't the major indices. We'll have the details when we do the numbers at the risk of belaboring. The point which i kind of been doing since like last friday there has been a whole bunch of economic news. Come out of the extensively political gatherings over in europe this week. The latest news at this morning that after seventeen years arguing over how much government help commercial airplane makers ought to be getting. There is now a truce a five year suspension of tariffs and subsidies. It is a turn of the page in. Us european economic relations of a sort. But it's also a chance for the two sides to change their focus to a new aviation competitor that is also spending billions in subsidies on a homegrown airplane company. Marketplace's scott tong has that won. The os in europe may fear a growing china but with commercial jets. The chinese face many challenges for one. It's full sized passenger aircraft which could get certified. This year relies heavily on imported technology. Says kennedy a think tank scholar at the center for strategic and international studies. Everything on that plane that keeps it in. The air is either from the united states or from europe. Another challenge maintenance and service yours consultant. Kevin michael's at aerodynamic advisory. The hardest hurt isn't making the physical aircraft. These are productivity machines that must operate three hundred sixty five days a year. that is why most countries that tried to join the boeing. Airbus party found themselves grounded. Richard bit singer is a senior fellow. At singapore's nanyang technological university. The koreans tried to do at the japanese the russians elephants graveyard now in an optimistic scenario. Chinese plane could sell well in the next few years in the china. Market forcing out boeing and airbus. Today's truce between the us e you could let the two governments counter beijing's tactics together says chad oland at the rand corporation without the common agreement between the us or europe. Either of them individually has very little chance of holding china accountable. Historically oland says commercial aviation as only had space for two big manufacturers. So if boeing or airbus slipped up in the future that could create an opening for china. Keep in mind. China head succeeded in electronics

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